The weight of
Donald Trump
‘s tariffs is being felt in several sectors of the Canadian
labour market
, with job vacancies in some industries dropping below pre-pandemic levels, says an economist.
Job vacancies
fell 3.8 per cent in the first quarter from the fourth quarter of 2024 and were down 18.1 per cent from the same quarter last year, according to
Statistics Canada data released Tuesday.
“The general message of the report is we have a slowing labour market,” Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at credit union Alberta Central, said. “We are seeing signs of increased slack in the economy and businesses that are not willing to hire.”
He said tariffs are one of the factors having an effect on vacancies, pointing out that vacancies in the trade-sensitive retail sector fell to their lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2016. Warehousing and transportation vacancies dropped to their lowest level since the third quarter of 2017.
Other sectors where openings have contracted below 2019 levels include information and culture and finance and insurance.
Overall, job vacancies are down to average levels recorded pre-pandemic.
Still, the declining number of vacancies signals that Canada’s job market is “stalling,” St-Arnaud said.
Statistics Canada has tracked a rising unemployment rate and negative average job gains from February to May.
The jobless rate in Canada currently stands at seven per cent, and has steadily risen since dropping to a record low of 4.8 per cent in July 2022.
The vacancy report lines up with what the job numbers have been telegraphing, St-Arnaud said.
In the first quarter, the number of unemployed people rose 200,900, while the number of job vacancies fell by 115,200.
That led to the unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio — the number of people without work per position — rising to 2.9 per cent in the first quarter compared to 2.8 per cent in the fourth quarter and two per cent a year ago.
Along with tariffs, “relatively weak” economic growth over the past few quarters has discouraged businesses from making new hires, something that is proven out by a “negative” Canadian Federation of Independent Business hiring intentions index.
Slowing population growth curbed demand and that, too, has dampened hiring, St-Arnaud said.
Another symptom of shrinking vacancies and demand for workers is the slowing average hourly wage growth.
Statistics Canada also said vacancies fell the most for jobs that called for a high school diploma or less.
St-Arnaud said the first quarter results likely pave the way for more of the same in the second quarter.
“What we’re seeing will likely continue: the same trend of (a) continued, gradual, kind of more marginal decline in the vacancy rate going forward,” he said.
• Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com
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Job vacancies slump as tariffs push some sectors below pre-pandemic levels
2025-06-18 11:37:15
