Jobs Data, Extended Crude Oil Surge May Lead To Early Slump On Wall Street

The major U.S. index futures are currently pointing to a sharply lower open on Friday, with stocks likely to see further downside following the weakness seen in the previous session.

The futures saw further downside following the release of a closely watched Labor Department report showing U.S. unemployment unexpectedly decreased in the month of February.

The report said non-farm payroll employment slumped by 92,000 jobs in February after jumping by a downwardly revised 126,000 jobs in January.

Economists had expected employment to increase by 60,000 jobs compared to the addition of 130,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The Labor Department also said the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent in February from 4.3 percent in January, in line with economist estimates.

A continued surge by the price of crude oil is also likely to weigh on Wall Street, with U.S. crude oil futures soaring to their highest levels in almost two years.

Crude oil has skyrocketed over the past week as the U.S.-Iran conflict spreads across the Middle East, leading to concerns about a potential energy crisis.

As the Middle East conflict enters its seventh day, Israel has intensified air strikes on Iran, while the U.S. said its attacks on Iran are going to “surge dramatically.”

President Donald Trump has said the U.S. wants to be involved in the process of choosing the person who is going to lead Iran into the future. He also encouraged Iranian Kurdish forces to go on the offensive.

After turning in a strong performance during Wednesday’s session, stocks moved back to the downside during trading on Thursday. The major averages all moved lower, with the Dow slumping to its lowest closing level in well over two months.

The major averages saw a notable recovery attempt in the final hour of trading but still closed in negative territory. The Dow tumbled 784.67 points or 1.6 percent to 47,954.74, the S&P 500 slid 38.79 points or 0.6 percent to 6,830.71 and the Nasdaq fell 58.50 points or 0.3 percent to 22,748.99.

Concerns about the impact of sharply higher energy prices weighed on Wall Street, as the price of crude oil resumed the surge seen early in the week.

After ending Wednesday’s trading session modestly higher, the price of crude oil skyrocketed to over $80 a barrel.

The spike in crude oil prices comes amid ongoing supply disruption worries due to the expanding conflict in the Middle East.

Iran has claimed it struck a U.S. oil tanker in the northern Persian Gulf, raising fears of a wider conflict after the Islamic republic threatened to halt shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has also signaled a possible longer time frame for the conflict than has previously been floated by the Trump administration, saying the war could last up to eight weeks but might be over sooner.

“Oil is so important to the world’s economy and to see the price go up so quickly in just a week could leave investors feeling dazed and confused,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell.

He added, “The Middle East situation is unfolding at a rapid pace, and investors are finding it hard to make a firm call on whether there will be a sustained energy crisis or just a short, sharp shock.”

Meanwhile, a day ahead of the release of the more closely watched monthly jobs report, the Labor Department released a report showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits came in flat in the week ended February 28th.

Airline stocks moved sharply lower due to concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict, dragging the NYSE Arca Airline Index down by 5.9 percent to a three-month closing low.

Substantial weakness was also visible among gold stocks amid a decrease by the price of the precious metal, with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index plunging by 4.2 percent.

Steel, telecom, housing and biotechnology stocks also saw significant weakness, while software and oil stocks bucked the downtrend.

Commodity, Currency Markets

Crude oil futures are spiking $5.27 to $86.28 a barrel after soaring $6.35 to $81.01 a barrel on Thursday. Meanwhile, after slumping $56 to $5,078.70 ounce in the previous session, gold futures are jumping $42.30 to $5,121 an ounce.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar is trading at 157.60 yen versus the 157.57 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Thursday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1581 compared to yesterday’s $1.1607.

Asia

Asian stocks ended mixed on Friday after Beijing’s strategic commitment to deepen tech investment. After announcing a conservative 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5 percent, China pledged substantial investment in high-tech sectors, benefiting artificial intelligence, chipmakers, and biotech firms.

Regional sentiment was cautious, however, as the Middle East war unleashed by U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran swelled outwards to Cyprus, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Azerbaijan, raising concerns about the outlook for trade, prices and investment.

The dollar was set for its strongest weekly gain in a year as the Iran war unleashed a fresh wave of uncertainty that markets typically dislike.

Gold edged up in Asian trading but was on track for the first weekly decline in more than a month, pressured by a stronger U.S dollar and fading rate-cut prospects.

Oil prices were slightly lower after the U.S. cleared the way for India to temporarily increase its purchases of Russian oil in a bid to stabilize global energy supplies.

That said, crude oil prices were on track for a 16 percent weekly gain due to severe disruptions in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4 percent to 4,124.19 after reports emerged that the government has ordered a suspension of new fuel export contracts amid heightened inflation risks and market volatility.

The Chinese government also announced a GDP growth target of 4.5-5 percent for 2026 in anticipation of greater global uncertainty.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rallied 1.7 percent to 25,757.29, led by gains in the technology sector following recent earnings reports. JD.com shares soared 10 percent and Tencent Holdings added 3.4 percent.

Japanese markets advanced after a four-day plunge amid concerns that disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz may constrain energy supplies.

The Nikkei 225 Index climbed 0.6 percent to 55,620.84, driven by expectations of a less-hawkish Bank of Japan. The broader Topix Index settled 0.4 percent higher at 3,716.93.

Seoul stocks recovered from an early slide to end on a flat note amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Investors also digested data that showed South Korea’s annual inflation rate held steady at 2 percent in February 2026.

The Kospi finished marginally higher at 5,584.87, with automakers, defense and battery stocks rising. Chip giant Samsung Electronics and its rival SK Hynix both fell around 1.8 percent.

Australian markets fell sharply and logged their worst weekly loss in a year after Iran said it hadn’t asked for a ceasefire and has no intention of negotiating.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index tumbled 1 percent to 8,851, with heavyweight banks and miners leading losses. The broader All Ordinaries Index closed 0.9 percent lower at 9,085.10.

Across the Tasman, New Zealand’s benchmark S&P/NZX-50 Index fell 0.7 percent to 13,519.35, reversing gains in the prior session.

Europe

European stocks have moved mostly lower over the course of the trading day on Friday and are on track for hefty weekly losses as Iran’s retaliation in West Asia spread to Bahrain and Azerbaijan.

In economic news, final data from Eurostat showed the euro area economy grew at a slower-than-estimated pace in the fourth quarter as net trade held back growth.

Gross domestic product rose 0.2 percent sequentially, which was revised down from 0.3 percent estimated previously. The economy had expanded 0.3 percent in the third quarter and 0.1 percent in the second quarter.

On a yearly basis, GDP expanded 1.2 percent, slower than the 1.4 percent rise in the third quarter. The fourth quarter rate was revised down from the initial estimate of 1.3 percent.

U.K. house prices increased at the fastest pace in four months in February, suggesting the property market gained momentum at the start of the year.

House prices registered annual growth of 1.3 percent in February following a 1.1 percent increase in January, according to data from the mortgage lender Halifax. This was the strongest growth in four months and exceeded economists’ forecast of 0.9 percent.

The German DAX Index is down by 0.7 percent, the French CAC 40 Index is down by 0.6 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index is down by 0.5 percent.

Among individual stocks, Sectra shares have soared a day after the Swedish medical imaging IT and cybersecurity company announced a deal to acquire Oxipit, a developer of AI tools for x-ray and CT analyses.

German carrier group Deutsche Lufthansa has also moved sharply higher after posting in-line earnings for 2025.

Meanwhile, Roche has slumped and Zealand Pharma has plunged after their experimental obesity shot failed to meet industry expectations in a mid-stage study.

U.S. Economic News

Employment in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased in the month of February, according to a closely watched report released by the Labor Department on Friday.

The report said non-farm payroll employment slumped by 92,000 jobs in February after jumping by a downwardly revised 126,000 jobs in January.

Economists had expected employment to increase by 60,000 jobs compared to the addition of 130,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The Labor Department also said the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent in February from 4.3 percent in January, in line with economist estimates.

A separate report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed a modest decrease by retail sales in the U.S. in the month of January.

The Commerce Department said retail sales dipped by 0.2 percent in January after coming in unchanged in December. Economists had expected retail sales to decrease by 0.4 percent.

Excluding sales by motor vehicles and parts dealers, retail sales remained flat in January after coming in unchanged in in December. Ex-auto sales were expected to inch up by 0.1 percent.

At 10 am ET, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release its report on business inventories in the month of December. Business inventories are expected to inch up by 0.1 percent.

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack is due to participate in a panel discussion “On the Safe-haven Status of the Dollar” before the 2026 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum sponsored by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business at 1:30 pm ET.

At 3 pm ET, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its report on consumer credit in the month of January. Consumer credit is expected to increase by $11.1 billion.