{"id":79474,"date":"2026-10-09T15:13:59","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T15:13:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/10\/09\/getting-lost-in-the-shuffle-why-some-small-businesses-fear-theyre-being-left-to-fight-the-trade-war-on-their-own\/"},"modified":"2026-10-09T15:13:59","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T15:13:59","slug":"getting-lost-in-the-shuffle-why-some-small-businesses-fear-theyre-being-left-to-fight-the-trade-war-on-their-own","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/10\/09\/getting-lost-in-the-shuffle-why-some-small-businesses-fear-theyre-being-left-to-fight-the-trade-war-on-their-own\/","title":{"rendered":"&#039;Getting lost in the shuffle&#039;: Why some small businesses fear they&#039;re being left to fight the trade war on their own"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<br \/><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"You can&amp;apos;t replace U.S. market overnight\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/tSuFrqFobhs?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p> Bernard Hellen expects to ship 271 boxes of figurines to model railroad enthusiasts around the world this month. His Toronto-based business , Miniprints, specializes in the handcrafted minutiae that model railroaders use to build scenes of life around their train sets, from cars and buildings to wildlife and people. You can even order a miniaturized version of yourself. Hellen exports to 36 countries, hitting all continents except one. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cI just have to figure out the logistics and find a model railroader in the Antarctic, and I\u2019m fine,\u201d he said. \u201cWho knows? It\u2019s good to have dreams, right?\u201d <\/p>\n<p> Despite the global reach, approximately 85 per cent of his shipments go south of the border. Or at least, they did, until the United States imposed 50 per cent Section 338 levies on Canadian goods after trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart in late August. The tariffs covered specific Canadian goods including alcohol, dairy, textiles, furniture, paper goods, plastics, electronics and sporting goods, among others. <\/p>\n<p> Hellen\u2019s products had been exempt from Section 232 tariffs implemented last year because he was covered by the Canada-U.S. Mexico Agreement , and he had been shipping around 400 boxes a month to the U.S.. But in the Section 338 round, Miniprints was classified under HTS Code 9503, which include toys, dolls, puzzles and scale models. <\/p>\n<p> More than 40 per cent of Hellen\u2019s American customer base has vanished since the levies took effect. <\/p>\n<p> He\u2019s had no choice but to start charging the 50 per cent levy on U.S.-bound purchases and has included a message on his website informing customers about the change. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cI have been pleasantly surprised that I\u2019ve been able to retain a significant portion of the U.S. customers. They do pay the tariffs, and I don\u2019t know whether it\u2019s because they perfected the art of consumerism, or because they want it at any cost, or because it is (an act of protest),\u201d he said. \u201cThere is still some U.S. revenue coming across, but it\u2019s not what it used to be.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> Hellen is one of many small business owners who are concerned that Canada\u2019s trade war with the U.S. could have long-term, potentially permanent consequences, if it goes on too long. According to data from the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses (CFIB), more than 53,000 small and medium-sized businesses are directly impacted by the levies. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cIf this thing lasts two days, I can survive it. If it lasts two months, then it\u2019s an inconvenience. If it lasts two years, then it\u2019s, to use an overused term, existential,\u201d Hellen said. <\/p>\n<p> Adding to his frustration is that he doesn\u2019t qualify for the $7.5 billion in aid the federal government announced on Aug. 25. <\/p>\n<p> Hellen \u2014 along with half of the small business community, according to the CFIB \u2014 doesn\u2019t qualify for the federal programs because Miniprints makes less than $1 million a year, and his supply chain hasn\u2019t been meaningfully impacted by the new levies. Provinces including Alberta, B.C., Manitoba and Ontario have their own tariff relief programs for affected businesses, but eligibility varies and small business owners have called for more direct support. <\/p>\n<p> \u201c(Small businesses) are being asked to go into the trenches and fight a trade war, but we have no uniforms, we have no guns, we have no bullets. We have nothing. I\u2019m getting lost in the shuffle, and that\u2019s the part that really hurts,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p> With talks between Canada and the U.S. at an apparent impasse, some economists are also warning that the longer Canada goes on without a trade deal, the worse the economy will fare. <\/p>\n<p> Keith Willoughby, dean of the Edward School of Business at the University of Saskatchewan, said Canada could enter a recessionary environment if negotiators can\u2019t reach a deal soon. The U.S. is Canada\u2019s largest trading partner and the world\u2019s largest economy, and foreign companies want access to that market. It may be challenging to get those companies to operate in Canada if access is hampered. <\/p>\n<p> The risk of more layoffs \u2014 especially in sectors most impacted by the tariffs \u2014 has also risen, he said. Canadian companies are trying to diversify trade in European and Asian markets, but those relationships and supply chains aren\u2019t built instantaneously, Willoughby said. Companies will be forced to trim their operations if they aren\u2019t able to diversify. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cWe can\u2019t have this (prolonged uncertainty) because it is breeding its own challenges that we\u2019re facing economically as a nation that relies upon exports,\u201d Willoughby said, suggesting it was time to return to the negotiating table. <\/p>\n<p> Willoughby also disagreed with Canada\u2019s counter-tariffs, which were implemented on Sept. 8, because they are a tax on Canadian consumers. Purchasing power will weaken because they will be forced to pay higher prices for goods. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cI\u2019m not convinced that\u2019s a solution that would help all parties involved. It\u2019s like the phrase \u2018an eye for an eye and a tooth for tooth.\u2019 It leaves everybody blind and needing a trip to the dentist because nobody wins in that situation,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p> Tony Stillo, director of Canada economics at Oxford Economics, said he doesn\u2019t think the Canadian economy will be plunged into recession, but he does believe economic growth will slow. He forecasts annualized GDP growth of 2.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2026 before slowing further to the one per cent range in the fourth quarter of 2026 and early 2027. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThis uncertain future is becoming a persistent feature of the economic landscape. We\u2019re not looking for any kind of robust growth. It\u2019s just going to be subdued growth,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cI think the Canadian government is doing what should have been done a long time ago (by diversifying trade). We\u2019re never going to be untethered from the U.S., it\u2019s just too big an economy\u2026. But we\u2019re trying to lessen that dependence.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> Stillo also noted that the economy could slow further if the U.S. implements more trade restrictions, such as the new steel and aluminum surtax that took effect on Sept. 8. However, he doesn\u2019t expect that to happen because it will only affect a small portion of Canadian goods. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThe risks are certainly there. There could even be a resolution, but our baseline view about what is going to happen moving forward is that we will just leave the tariffs the way they are. We don\u2019t add anymore, and we don\u2019t take any away,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThat\u2019s what we call the status quo, and we think that puts the economy on a lower path than it otherwise would be.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> Some small businesses are trying to make up for lost revenue by taking advantage of the Buy Canadian movement. <\/p>\n<p> A new report by Abacus Data suggests that 78 per cent of 3,000 Canadian adults surveyed last February said they intend to boycott American products. That figure was virtually unchanged 19 months later, with 77 per cent of 1,479 Canadian adults surveyed saying the. <\/p>\n<p> Hellen and 10 other colleagues recently created a new national coalition called the Canadian Model Railroad Manufacturers (CMRM) to promote its members on social media, industry events and cooperative marketing. The idea is to create a \u201cvoluntary marketing alliance\u201d to create demand and visibility in Canada and to encourage Canadian hobbyists to spend money domestically. The CMRM website also features a directory of members where hobbyists can find shops closer to home, from British Columbia to Nova Scotia. <\/p>\n<p> Hellen is also thinking of hosting events like open houses and shopping events to bring model railroad hobbyists together. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cI can cry about the loss of U.S. dollars. I can plan international expansion, but that\u2019s not going to be overnight. But what I do have control over \u2014 especially in this moment where everyone wants to shop Canadian \u2014 is to make sure that we really are pushing hard in our home market, harder than we\u2019ve ever pushed before, and the best way to do that by working together with like-minded businesses who are experiencing similar issues,\u201d Hellen said. <\/p>\n<p> Consumers are keen to wrap themselves in the flag, but it comes with a cost. Sixty-one per cent of those surveyed by Abacus Data in September said buying Canadian-made goods was more expensive. <\/p>\n<p> Hellen said more politicians need to talk about how the tariffs are impacting small businesses, and he has been meeting with his local MP and MPP to discuss these issues. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThe big sectors will be fine,\u201d he said. \u201cWe (smaller businesses) will not be OK because we don\u2019t have visibility,\u201d <\/p>\n<p> Business investment also remains a key challenge in Canada, especially if the federal government wants to double non-U.S. exports by 2035, Stillo said. <\/p>\n<p> A recent Oxford Economics report suggests that goal is feasible but would require strategic and timely infrastructure investment in things like pipelines, ports and transportation corridors that will allow Canada to export oil to non-U.S. markets, for example. <\/p>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li>Business groups warn of irreversible economic consequences if trade deal remains in limbo<\/li>\n<li>Canadian manufacturers issue a call to turn trade crisis into opportunity<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> For now, however, Hellen and other small business owners find themselves with few options as they wait for a resolution. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cI\u2019m hopeful that suddenly things will revert back to the good old days,\u201d he said. \u201cBut at the end of the day, all I can really do about it is come up with strategies like CMRM that will potentially replace lost revenue from the reality that we live in.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> <em>\u2022 Email: ptran@postmedia.com <\/em> <\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"How low can the Canadian dollar go?\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/m0vS6ooYans?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<br \/>&#039;Getting lost in the shuffle&#039;: Why some small businesses fear they&#039;re being left to fight the trade war on their own<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2026-10-09 15:13:59<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bernard Hellen expects to ship 271 boxes of figurines to model railroad enthusiasts around the world this month. His Toronto-based business , Miniprints, specializes in the handcrafted minutiae that model&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79474","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79474"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79474\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}