Exports of goods jumped 8.1 per cent in January from December, pushing the trade balance to a $1.4-billion surplus, the first since May 2019 and the biggest since July 2014. That\u2019s important because Canada\u2019s trade engine failed to re-engage after the Great Recession.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re going to see a surge in demand when we get to the other side of the pandemic, maybe even some inflation,\u201d Linda Hasenfratz, chief executive of automobile-parts maker Linamar Corp., said at a virtual conference hosted by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce last month. \u201cGreat economic growth is coming.\u201d<\/p>\n
The burst of euphoria, when it comes, will make it difficult to assess what we\u2019ve been through during the past year. The focus that went into surviving the pandemic will be replaced by an impulse to simply get back to normal. We\u2019ve suffered a traumatic event and it will be tempting to stop thinking about the crisis and simply enjoy the rebound.<\/p>\n Empty grocery store shelves were a common sight at the beginning of the pandemic as fearful shoppers stocked up. In this photo taken in Toronto on March, 13, 2020, masks were not yet required indoors.<\/span> Photo by Reuters\/Carlos Osorio<\/span> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\nWe need to resist that urge. Carlsberg beer and casual hookups aren\u2019t long-term fixes for chronic stress, and a quick return to complacency about the flawed economy we\u2019ve built will waste a rare opportunity to make systemic change. Governments responded to the crisis correctly, but we should be embarrassed that spending of that magnitude was necessary. It was a display of weakness, not strength.<\/p>\n
\u201cNo one should be doing any victory laps for that first quarter; that growth is strong because it\u2019s just pent-up demand,\u201d Mark Carney, the former head of the central banks of Canada and England, said last month in an interview with Nahlah Ayed, the host of CBC Radio\u2019s Ideas program.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n
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This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\nArticle content<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n\n Low-paid women have been hurt most by the recession, and they risk being left behind by the recovery <\/span><\/h3>\n<\/li>\n The hidden threat to Canada\u2019s economic recovery \u2014 our mental health <\/span><\/h3>\n<\/li>\n Business leaders are worried politicians aren\u2019t paying enough attention to the long haul <\/span><\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/section>\n\u201cDo we have the sustainability of growth, which helps with the sustainability of debt?\u201d Carney continued. \u201cDo we have the sustainability of livelihoods? Are we creating the types of jobs that are actually going to stick around, as opposed to the types that we wish we had, or that are temporary?\u201d<\/p>\n
Carney argues that we erred by letting markets determine the value of everything. That philosophy incorrectly assumed ahead of the 2008-09 global financial crisis that self-interested bankers could be trusted to regulate themselves. Governments have spent much of the last decade re-erecting a firewall around the world\u2019s largest banks, and they are now poised to spend the next decade working on policies that will neutralize carbon emissions since the markets won\u2019t do it.<\/p>\n An Alberta provincial ad designed to discourage house parties and family gatherings to combat COVID-19.<\/span> Photo by Screen Shot<\/span> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\nWeak governance also exacerbated the COVID-19 crisis, beginning with the failure to prepare for a pandemic despite repeated warnings that it was only a matter of time before a novel virus wreaked global havoc.<\/p>\n
An embrace of tight fiscal policy and relatively low taxes resulted in a sterling credit rating, high profits and an underfunded health-care system that was no match for a mysterious disease.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n
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This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\nArticle content<\/h2>\n The country\u2019s manufacturing base has been left to erode, because doing anything about it would violate our commitment to free trade and offend our infantile notions about the dangers of industrial policy. Meanwhile, the corporate elite plowed as much or more money into Caribbean tax havens than they did into investment opportunities at home or in fast-growing markets in Asia.<\/p>\n
\nIt was a big shakeup moment. Things are never going back to normal<\/p>\n
Mary Rowe, president of the Canadian Urban Institute<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
One could go on. The point is that we were entirely unprepared for anything more difficult than a drop in oil prices or a wobble in demand for automobile parts from the United States. \u201cIt was a big shakeup moment,\u201d Mary Rowe, president of the Canadian Urban Institute, a Toronto-based charity that works on city development, said of the pandemic. \u201cThings are never going back to normal.\u201d<\/p>\n
Rowe, who participated in the rebuilding of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, said it\u2019s too soon to identify the most important lessons of the COVID-19 crisis.<\/p>\n
The Canadian Urban Institute\u2019s work shows that some cities (Montreal, Edmonton) experienced much higher death tolls than others, suggesting high-level national and provincial assessments could miss important vulnerabilities that are specific to various communities.<\/p>\n
Hasenfratz observed that many manufacturers, including Linamar, retooled on the fly to build ventilators and other vital equipment, indicating that the answer to concerns about resiliency is to perhaps create an environment in which factories thrive, rather than worrying about reshoring the production of personal protective equipment.<\/p>\n
Carney advocates a frontal attack on climate change, as the investment required to get to net-zero would create jobs and wealth in service of avoiding a disaster that will otherwise dwarf the COVID-19 crisis.<\/p>\n
All that and more are on the cards. As policy-makers have been repeating for years now: whatever it takes.<\/p>\n
\u2022 Email: kcarmichael@postmedia.com | Twitter: