{"id":78889,"date":"2026-09-25T12:00:15","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T12:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/09\/25\/posthaste-the-stock-markets-fear-index-is-scary-says-economist-but-not-for-the-reason-you-think\/"},"modified":"2026-09-25T12:00:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T12:00:15","slug":"posthaste-the-stock-markets-fear-index-is-scary-says-economist-but-not-for-the-reason-you-think","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/09\/25\/posthaste-the-stock-markets-fear-index-is-scary-says-economist-but-not-for-the-reason-you-think\/","title":{"rendered":"Posthaste: The stock market&#039;s fear index is scary, says economist \u2014 but not for the reason you think"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<br \/><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Can Trump dump CUSMA? Yes he can, says trade lawyer\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Cn6fwUwuYnk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> In these times of war, sky-high fuel prices, rising inflation and global interest rate hikes, you\u2019d think the stock markets\u2019 so-called fear index would be flashing red, but it\u2019s not and that worries economist David Rosenberg . <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThe VIX index reflects, to a large degree, the high level of complacency in the marketplace,\u201d the president of Rosenberg Research &amp; Associates Inc. said, referring to the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX). <\/p>\n<p> The VIX, which is supposed to measure real-time volatility in the S&amp;P 500 index , has been hanging around one-year lows of about 15 after spiking in the early days of the United States\u2019s conflict with Iran. <\/p>\n<p> VIX readings of zero to 15 indicate some optimism along with very low volatility; 15 to 25 show a certain amount of volatility, but not extreme; 25 to 30 mean there\u2019s some market turbulence and increasing volatility; while anything over 30 indicates a highly volatile market coupled with some extreme swings, according to Toronto-Dominion Bank . <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/vix-2.png\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> \u201cThe low level reflects the high level of confidence in the stock market,\u201d Rosenberg said. <\/p>\n<p> Other data points are also indicating investor confidence, including a record high reading of Market Vane, which tracks bullish and bearish sentiment amongst markets and investors. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cAll these charts are lining up, telling you that the market, generally speaking, has a high level of confidence that the returns the S&amp;P 500 is going to deliver now and into the future are going to be rather significant,\u201d Rosenberg said. <\/p>\n<p> But he said that confidence is misplaced and that market volatility is coming. <\/p>\n<p> For one thing, Rosenberg expects there to be less hand-holding by the U.S. Federal Reserve of stock markets given that new Fed chair Kevin Warsh has signalled there will be less forward guidance on where policymakers think interest rates are headed. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cLopsided\u201d markets with everyone in on the same trade are also sending a danger signal to Rosenberg, as are the rising levels of margin debt, which is up 50 per cent over the past year. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cWhen you look at the VIX and you look at market positioning and you look at sentiment and you look at valuations, the only other time I can ever remember in my professional life such a lopsided market was back in the late 1990s,\u201d he said, referring to the period just before the dot-com blowup. <\/p>\n<p> Craig Basinger, chief market strategist at Purpose Investments Inc., said global headlines talking about US$100 oil and five per cent bond yields aren\u2019t \u201cmarket-friendly,\u201d so one would expect a higher VIX. <\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"transcript-word\">\u201cBut<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">behind<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">that,<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">you<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">still<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">have<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">the<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">residual<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">positive<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">influence<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">of<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">a<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">great<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">earnings<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">season,\u201d he said.<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> \u201c<\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">AI<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">keeps<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">oscillating, <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">but<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">it\u2019s<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">still<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">largely<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">positive<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">for<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">the<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">market,<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">and<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">then<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">you\u2019ve<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">got <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">decent<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">economic<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">data<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">that<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">really<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">hasn\u2019t<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">fallen<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">out<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">of<\/span><span class=\"transcript-space\"> <\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">bed<\/span><span class=\"transcript-word\">.\u201d<\/span> <\/p>\n<p> Furthermore, what was bad news one day gets digested pretty quickly or forgotten by markets. <\/p>\n<p> For example, the VIX spiked to about 30 when the war on Iran started, but it rose past 50 on U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s so-called Liberation Day. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThe market just gets used to things,\u201d Basinger said, adding it can react quickly to news while obscuring the longer-term impacts of events. \u201cYou know, $100 oil doesn\u2019t cause a recession, but I\u2019m gonna say six months of $100 oil probably does.\u201d <\/p>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li>Posthaste: Tiff Macklem take note \u2014 markets have so far correctly called interest rate hikes, says analyst<\/li>\n<li>Posthaste: More Canadian investors are moving their money out of U.S., into Canada<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em><strong> Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/em> <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><br \/> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1758646\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/subhead_leading.png\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/canada-retail-sales-.png\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<p>Canadian consumers pulled back on spending in July, a slowdown after stronger sales during the first half of the year.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<p>Retail sales fell by 0.7 per cent monthly to $73.7 billion in July, the first drop since December 2025, according to data from Statistics Canada published on Thursday morning. The decrease followed a 0.6 per cent rise to $74.3 billion in sales in June. \u2014<em> Paula Tran, Financial Post<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Read the full story here.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<hr \/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\"><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/subhead-1.jpg\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Today\u2019s Data<\/strong>: U.S. durable goods orders, University of Michigan sentiment index, Kansas City Fed services activity<\/li>\n<li><strong>Earnings: <\/strong>District Metals Corp., Paramount Group Inc., Farmer Bros. Co.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080180\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_marketsam.jpeg\" width=\"838\" \/> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/chart-0925-ph.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\"><\/figure>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080181\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_reads.jpeg\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Competition Bureau reaches deal that could help lower gas prices<\/li>\n<li>Toronto and Vancouver drop to weakest housing markets in UBS global ranking<\/li>\n<li>Can Trump dump CUSMA? Yes he can, says trade lawyer<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2059284\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/subhead_personal_finance_2.png\" width=\"838\" \/> <\/p>\n<p> Glen is 45 years old, earns $110,000 a year, but has little savings and $100,000 left on the mortgage on his family home in Northern Ontario. Is it a good idea for him to borrow to invest in a registered retirement savings plan. Find out what FP Answers has to say.  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-99.png\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> The FP Atlantic Economic Report takes you behind the scenes of the business world in Atlantic Canada. We\u2019ll bring you insights from CEOs, government leaders, investors and economists on what\u2019s making the regional economy tick and where it\u2019s heading next. Sign up here <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"x_elementToProof\">Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com<span><\/span><span> with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we\u2019ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we\u2019ll keep your name out of it, of course).<\/span><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>McLister on mortgages<\/h2>\n<p> Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s Financial Post column  can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Financial Post on YouTube<\/h2>\n<p> Visit the Financial Post\u2019s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em>Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.<\/em> <\/p>\n<p> Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com . <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/em> <\/p>\n<p><\/img><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<br \/>Posthaste: The stock market&#039;s fear index is scary, says economist \u2014 but not for the reason you think<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2026-09-25 12:00:15<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In these times of war, sky-high fuel prices, rising inflation and global interest rate hikes, you\u2019d think the stock markets\u2019 so-called fear index would be flashing red, but it\u2019s not&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":78890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78889"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78889\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/78890"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}