{"id":78834,"date":"2026-09-24T12:00:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/09\/24\/posthaste-tiff-macklem-take-note-markets-have-so-far-correctly-called-interest-rate-hikes-says-analyst\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T12:00:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:00:20","slug":"posthaste-tiff-macklem-take-note-markets-have-so-far-correctly-called-interest-rate-hikes-says-analyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/09\/24\/posthaste-tiff-macklem-take-note-markets-have-so-far-correctly-called-interest-rate-hikes-says-analyst\/","title":{"rendered":"Posthaste: Tiff Macklem take note \u2014 markets have so far correctly called interest rate hikes, says analyst"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<br \/><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Can Trump dump CUSMA? Yes he can, says trade lawyer\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Cn6fwUwuYnk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says domestic data will drive rate decisions, but you might want to track what the betting markets believe since they continue to correctly predict the policy moves of central banks around the world, National Bank of Canada says. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cFor (central) banks yet to deliver a hike, the messaging is clear \u2014 inflation risks are paramount \u2014 and markets have appropriately priced in eventual action,\u201d Ethan Currie, a strategist at National Bank, said in a note on Wednesday. <\/p>\n<p> Investors place bets on interest rate moves via the overnight index swaps (OIS) markets, which are used to help manage short-term interest rate risks. <\/p>\n<p> There is about a 60 per cent chance of the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates at its next meeting on Oct. 28, according to action on OIS markets on Wednesday, up from about 30 per cent at the start of September, but down from a monthly high around 75 per cent. Bets for a rate hike in December were fully priced in. <\/p>\n<p> <span>But Macklem has pushed back against the idea of external forces playing a role in monetary policy decisions.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p> \u201cWe can run a monetary policy in Canada that is geared to the situation in Canada, and that\u2019s what we\u2019re going to keep doing,\u201d he said at a news conference in Halifax on Monday. <\/p>\n<p> Evidence is building up, however, that interest rate markets are ahead of the curve when it comes to rate decisions. <\/p>\n<p> Five major central banks have hiked rates this year, including the United States Federal Reserve , European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia. <\/p>\n<p> The Fed hiked rates last week to 3.75 per cent to four per cent and 65 per cent of market bets say it will hike again at the end of October. The European Central Bank increased rates in June and September, while the Bank of Japan increased rates last Friday to 1.25 per cent from one per cent. <\/p>\n<p> The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates three times earlier this year and it is expected to hike again when is meets on Sept. 29. <\/p>\n<p> In all cases, OIS markets bet on rate increases due to inflation from elevated crude prices, something Currie doesn\u2019t see improving. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cNotwithstanding a moderation from peak spot oil prices, the pressure for policymakers to respond is only growing,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p> For example, long-term oil futures indicate crude prices will \u201ccontinue to grind higher,\u201d he said, and rising crack spreads \u2014 the difference between the price of oil and the products made from it, such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel \u2014 due to the shortage of those refined products are \u201cshowing up as record prices at the pump.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> Currie said he doesn\u2019t see that getting any better, given that supplies of gasoline and diesel from the Middle East and Russia remain cut off from global markets while other refining centres, such as the U.S., are running at full capacity. <\/p>\n<p> The upcoming refinery maintenance season could further throttle refined supplies. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThere\u2019s no easy solution to rectify shortfalls either; even if supply were restored, it could take years for inventories to fully normalize, a development that could mean higher prices for longer,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p> Headline inflation in Canada hit three per cent in August, mostly due to higher gas prices, but core inflation is still near the Bank of Canada\u2019s target of two per cent. <\/p>\n<p> Macklem said ongoing economic slack and tariff uncertainty are making Canada\u2019s interest rate trajectory less clear than in the U.S., though the Bank of Canada is committed to containing inflation. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cPolicymakers have been consistent: a lingering supply shock threatens second-round effects on inflation,\u201d Currie said. \u201cAs such, central bank pricing has been closely tied to crude.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> He estimates approximately 300 basis points of tightening coming from the Fed, Bank of Canada, ECB and Bank of England over the next nine months, though National Bank is calling for the Fed and the Bank of Canada to hike a little less than markets are predicting. <\/p>\n<p> National Bank of Canada has pulled its call for the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates forward to December from January. <\/p>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li>Posthaste: More Canadian investors are moving their money out of U.S., into Canada<\/li>\n<li>Posthaste: This province is expected to lead the pack by a mile this year \u2014 and no, it&#8217;s not Alberta<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em><strong> Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/em> <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><br \/> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1758646\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/subhead_leading.png\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/population.png\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<p>Canada\u2019s annual population growth has slowed to its lowest level in more than 80 years due to lower immigration, says Statistics Canada.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<p>The population is estimated to have added 189,425 people from July 2025 to July 2026, which is the lowest annual growth since 1944-1945, when the population increased by 126,000 people, the agency said on Wednesday. The population\u2019s growth of 0.5 per cent in the past year is the lowest since the 0.3 per cent increase in 1915-1916. \u2014 <em>Naimul Karim, Financial Post<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Read the full story here.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<hr \/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\"><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/subhead-1.jpg\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Today\u2019s Data<\/strong>: Canadian Federation of Independent Business business barometer, payroll employment change, retail sales, U.S. current account balance, new and continuing jobless claims, new home sales<\/li>\n<li><strong>Earnings: <\/strong>BlackBerry Ltd., New Gold Inc., Canadian North Resources Inc., Harvest Gold Corp., Irving Resources Inc.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080180\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_marketsam.jpeg\" width=\"838\" \/> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/chart-0924.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\"><\/figure>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080181\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_reads.jpeg\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Canadian dollar falls below 71 cents U.S. as headwinds loom for loonie<\/li>\n<li>A Canadian who lived abroad thought she followed TFSA contribution rules, but CRA surprised her with a penalty tax<\/li>\n<li>Should an employee be fired for cause for lying on their resum\u00e9?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2059284\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/subhead_personal_finance_2.png\" width=\"838\" \/> <\/p>\n<p> This couple want to buy their first home, but between a few credit cards, a car loan, a sizable overdraft and three payday loans, they are carrying about $38,000 in debt. They wonder if consolidating everything into one loan would make more sense than saving for a down payment right now. Read FP Answers to find out more. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-99.png\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> The FP Atlantic Economic Report takes you behind the scenes of the business world in Atlantic Canada. We\u2019ll bring you insights from CEOs, government leaders, investors and economists on what\u2019s making the regional economy tick and where it\u2019s heading next. Sign up here <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"x_elementToProof\">Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com<span><\/span><span> with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we\u2019ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we\u2019ll keep your name out of it, of course).<\/span><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>McLister on mortgages<\/h2>\n<p> Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s Financial Post column  can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Financial Post on YouTube<\/h2>\n<p> Visit the Financial Post\u2019s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em>Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.<\/em> <\/p>\n<p> Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com . <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/em> <\/p>\n<p><\/img><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<br \/>Posthaste: Tiff Macklem take note \u2014 markets have so far correctly called interest rate hikes, says analyst<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2026-09-24 12:00:20<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says domestic data will drive rate decisions, but you might want to track what the betting markets believe since they continue to correctly predict&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":78835,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78834","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78834","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78834"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78834\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/78835"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78834"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78834"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78834"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}