{"id":78414,"date":"2026-09-14T12:01:52","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T12:01:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/09\/14\/posthaste-the-global-bond-blowup-is-starting-to-hit-home-literally\/"},"modified":"2026-09-14T12:01:52","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T12:01:52","slug":"posthaste-the-global-bond-blowup-is-starting-to-hit-home-literally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/09\/14\/posthaste-the-global-bond-blowup-is-starting-to-hit-home-literally\/","title":{"rendered":"Posthaste: The global bond blowup is starting to hit home \u2014 literally"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The global bond meltdown that has dominated the headlines in recent weeks is finally hitting home in Canada, literally. <\/p>\n

This past week, the selloff pushed a key U.S. Treasury yield to the cusp of 5 per cent, which analysts say is an important psychological level for markets. <\/p>\n

This recent surge in bond yields has been driven by the rise of oil prices in the Iran war, leading investors to anticipate higher monetary policy than expected. <\/p>\n

Concerns about the United States\u2019 fiscal health are also contributing. U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s promise last week to send a US$5,000 cheque to every American if the Republicans win the mid-term elections just fuelled worries about the country\u2019s growing debt. <\/p>\n

National Bank of Canada economists Daren King and Kyle Dahms said Canada has not been spared the surge in yields. The Canadian 5-year rate rose by 16 basis points last week to a two-year high of 3.65 per cent. <\/p>\n

The problem for Canadians is that this bond yield serves a benchmark for 5-year fixed mortgage rates and last week these too started to rise. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve seen increases anywhere from like 20 basis points to almost 100 basis points with some lenders,\u201d Clinton Wilkins of Clinton Wilkins Mortgage Team told Canadian Mortgage Trends . \u201cThe pricing seems to be all over the place.\u201d <\/p>\n

The rise in mortgage rates will erode the improvement in affordability in Canada\u2019s housing market in recent years, say economists. <\/p>\n

National Bank of Canada estimates that its Affordability Index that measures mortgage payments as a percentage of income will stay flat in the third quarter before rising 1.1 percentage points in the fourth, the first deterioration in affordability in three years. <\/p>\n

As for higher borrowing rates, Canadians may just have to get used to it. <\/p>\n

Vikram Rai, senior economist at Toronto Dominion Bank, argues that bond yields are likely to stay higher for longer. <\/p>\n

Heavy government and corporate borrowing, reduced demand from traditional bond buyers and higher term premium are structural pressures that are not going away anytime soon, he said. <\/p>\n

The U.S. Federal Reserve decides on interest rates Wednesday and markets odds of a hike are above 85 per cent. <\/p>\n

So what\u2019s this mean for the Bank of Canada? <\/p>\n

According to markets, there is a 50\/50 chance of a hike at the bank\u2019s next meeting in October and more than 100 bps of hikes by the end of 2027, said BMO Capital Markets chief economist Douglas Porter. <\/p>\n

Much will depend on how high and for how long energy prices go, and what happens in the trade dispute between Canada and the United States. <\/p>\n

\u201cEven this space would readily admit that any bad news on the first item (oil), or good news on the second (trade) will tip the bank into hiking,\u201d he said in a note Friday. <\/p>\n

With that in mind, keep an eye on Canada\u2019s inflation numbers out today. <\/p>\n

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Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/em> <\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/strong> <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Canadian household wealth eclipsed the $19 trillion mark for the first time in the second quarter, \u201ca blow-away quarter\u201d driven by the rally in stock markets. <\/p>\n

Canadian households added $550 billion to their collective wealth, a 2.9 per cent jump from the quarter before, according to Statistics Canada\u2019s latest national balance sheet, released Friday. <\/p>\n

Household financial assets, which include stocks, underwent their strongest quarterly gain since the fourth quarter of 2020. Non-financial assets, which include residential real estate, edged upwards by just 0.5 per cent compared with the previous quarter. <\/p>\n

Read the whole story here. <\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/p>\n

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  • Canada Investment Summit begins in Toronto. The two-day gathering for global investors aims to attract $1 trillion in investment in Canada over the next five years.<\/li>\n
  • Today\u2019s Data:<\/strong> Canada\u2019s inflation numbers for August and factory sales for July<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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    <\/figure>\n
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    \"\"<\/strong> <\/p>\n

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    • Mark Carney wants the world\u2019s biggest funds to invest billions in Canada. Will they buy in?<\/li>\n
    • Why America\u2019s bond problem could become your mortgage problem <\/li>\n
    • Jean Charest: Canada will one day thank Donald Trump<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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      \"\" <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

      An Ontario woman is about to receive a $500,000 gift from her parents and wonders if she should use the windfall to pay off her $450,000 mortgage. FP Answers explains how this decision is often made around the math. Pay off your mortgage if the mortgage rate is higher than your future expected investment returns, and if lower, then invest. But there is more to it than that. Read on to find out more. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n

      \n

      <\/span>\"\" Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country\u2019s most important sectors. Sign up here. <\/p>\n

      \n
      Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at <\/span>wealth@postmedia.com<\/span> with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we\u2019ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we\u2019ll keep your name out of it, of course).<\/span><\/div>\n
      \n

      McLister on mortgages<\/h2>\n

      Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. <\/p>\n

      \n

      Financial Post on YouTube<\/h2>\n

      Visit the Financial Post\u2019s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. <\/p>\n

      \n

      Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.<\/em> <\/p>\n

      Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com . <\/p>\n

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        \n
      • Canada’s credit rating could be the next casualty in Trump’s trade war<\/li>\n
      • Despite trade war, \u2018Elbows up\u2019 has its limits<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/em> <\/p>\n

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        Posthaste: The global bond blowup is starting to hit home \u2014 literally<\/a>
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        2026-09-14 12:01:52<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The global bond meltdown that has dominated the headlines in recent weeks is finally hitting home in Canada, literally. This past week, the selloff pushed a key U.S. Treasury yield…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":78415,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78414"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78414\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/78415"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}