{"id":74027,"date":"2026-06-01T12:07:29","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T12:07:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/06\/01\/posthaste-recession-what-recession-canadas-economy-is-doing-better-than-it-has-in-years-by-this-measure\/"},"modified":"2026-06-01T12:07:29","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T12:07:29","slug":"posthaste-recession-what-recession-canadas-economy-is-doing-better-than-it-has-in-years-by-this-measure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/06\/01\/posthaste-recession-what-recession-canadas-economy-is-doing-better-than-it-has-in-years-by-this-measure\/","title":{"rendered":"Posthaste: Recession, what recession? Canada&#039;s economy is doing better than it has in years by this measure"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<br \/><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Inflation data buys Bank of Canada time\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/3PRifiqta9o?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> Canadian economic data made international news Friday as the latest reading of gross domestic product earned mentions from everyone from investing guru Mohamed El-Erian to the Wall Street Journal.  <\/p>\n<p> Canada\u2019s GDP doesn\u2019t often attract such attention, but this time a second quarter of contraction raised the red flag of \u201ctechnical recession.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre seized on the data, accusing Prime Minister Mark Carney of being the only G7 leader to send his country\u2019s economy into recession and calling for an emergency debate. <\/p>\n<p> The numbers were certainly a surprise. The 0.1 per cent decline in GDP in the first quarter shocked observers who had been expecting growth closer to 2 per cent. \u2018Historically unusual,\u201d is how Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, described it. <\/p>\n<p> Luckily, economists say there is more to a recession than just two quarters of negative growth \u2014 namely the 3 Ds \u2014 depth, duration and dispersion. <\/p>\n<p> This decline is not even close on depth \u2014 amounting to just 0.6 per cent annualized over the two quarters, \u201cbarely a scratch in GDP terms,\u201d said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in a note. <\/p>\n<p> In the past three Canadians recessions, outside the pandemic, the average decline at the weakest point was 5.3 per cent. <\/p>\n<p> Nor is weakness widespread across the economy. The trade war has hit manufacturing, trade and real estate hard, but other sectors like finance, resources and health care are growing, said Kavcic. <\/p>\n<p> Though exports are down, domestic demand has been climbing, and consumer spending has continued to rise. <\/p>\n<p> Duration, he concedes, is getting close. The Canadian economy has been soft since the start of the trade war in early 2025, posting three negative quarters out of four. <\/p>\n<p> However, there is one key variable in this equation that should not be overlooked and when viewed through its lens paints a very different picture of Canada\u2019s economy, say economists \u2014 population. <\/p>\n<p> Since the federal government cracked down on immigration after the post-pandemic boom, population has actually declined in Canada over the past two quarters. <\/p>\n<p> So while the overall GDP reading is slipping, GDP per person is on the rise, a welcome change from a few years back when the per capita measure was nose-diving. <\/p>\n<p> GDP per capita fell by almost 2.5 per cent in just over a year in 2022 and 2023, and plunged again in 2025, even as headline GDP was growing. The latest data showed GDP per person picked up by an annualized 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThat\u2019s a better outcome for how individual households experience the economic backdrop compared to, for example, the ostensibly respectable GDP increases in 2023\/2024 that actually represented persistent declines on a per-capita basis,\u201d said Janzen. <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gdp-chart-0601-ph.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> Make no mistake, the Canadian economy remains fragile and faces more uncertainty in coming months as review of the Canada-United-States-Mexico Agreement gets underway. <\/p>\n<p> But as economists at National Bank of Canada said Friday: \u201cWe are not ready to bandy about the \u2018R\u2019 word, at least not yet.\u201d <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em><strong>Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/em> <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><br \/> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1758646\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/subhead_leading.png\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/canadian-dollar-chart.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> Looks like the loonie is a petrodollar no longer. <\/p>\n<p> When oil prices fell on hopes of a U.S. deal with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, the Canadian dollar held up surprisingly well. That\u2019s because the currency has a new commodity anchor \u2014 gold , says National Bank of Canada chief economist St\u00e9fane Marion. <\/p>\n<p> While the correlation between the Canadian dollar and WTI has weakened, the correlation with bullion has surged to the point where it now even surpasses the link with Canada-U.S. 2-year yield spreads, his chart shows. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cOil still matters for Canada, but in the current market configuration, gold appears to be the more relevant marginal driver, helping explain why CAD is appreciating even as crude retreats,\u201d said Marion. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cGold\u2019s rally is doing more of the heavy lifting for CAD.\u201d <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/subhead-1.jpg\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Calgary home sales for May<\/li>\n<li><strong>Today\u2019s Data:<\/strong> United States ISM manufacturing, construction spending<\/li>\n<li><strong>Earnings:<\/strong> Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/banner.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/chart-0601-ph.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\"><\/figure>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080181\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_reads.jpeg\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>How Arthur Labatt\u2019s struggles with anxiety inspired a $40-million gift to support mental health<\/li>\n<li>How workplace investigations quietly stripped power away from CEOs <\/li>\n<li>This TSX stock could be a winner as Mark Carney beefs up defence spending strategy, analyst says<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2059284\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/subhead_personal_finance_2.png\" width=\"838\" \/> <\/p>\n<p> Caroline, 62, is single and planning for retirement in three years, but she still has a $300,000 mortgage coming up for renewal next year. She is prepared to take on a part-time job after she retires but would prefer not to have to work at all. Should she delay retirement? Find out what Family Finance has to say. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <span><\/span><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/FP-West-Energy-Insider-Logo.png\" title=\"\" \/> Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country\u2019s most important sectors. Sign up here. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"x_elementToProof\"><span>Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at <\/span>wealth@postmedia.com<span><\/span><span> with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we\u2019ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we\u2019ll keep your name out of it, of course).<\/span><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>McLister on mortgages<\/h2>\n<p> Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s Financial Post column  can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Financial Post on YouTube<\/h2>\n<p> Visit the Financial Post\u2019s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em>Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.<\/em> <\/p>\n<p> Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com . <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li>Business owners are losing faith in the economy \u2014 and they are not the only ones<\/li>\n<li>Worried about a market bubble? You ain&#8217;t seen nothing yet<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/em> <\/p>\n<p><\/img><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<br \/>Posthaste: Recession, what recession? Canada&#039;s economy is doing better than it has in years by this measure<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2026-06-01 12:07:29<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canadian economic data made international news Friday as the latest reading of gross domestic product earned mentions from everyone from investing guru Mohamed El-Erian to the Wall Street Journal. Canada\u2019s&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":74028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-74027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74027"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74027\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/74028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}