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During his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jingping posed a question: \u201cCan China and the United States transcend the so-called \u2018Thucydides trap?\u2019 and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?\u201d It was the second prominent reference to the ancient Greek general and historian made by a world leader this year, the first being by Prime Minister Mark Carney during his speech at Davos in January. So, why is Thucydides having a political moment, and what makes his writing relevant today? <\/p>\n
Thucydides was a Greek general and historian known for penning the \u201cHistory of the Peloponnesian War,\u201d an account of the conflict between Sparta and Athens \u2014 the two dominant powers of Ancient Greece \u2014 that lasted from 431 to 404 BCE. <\/p>\n
As a general during the early part of the war, Thucydides was an eyewitness to many events and his writing stands out for being more of a \u201clogical analysis\u201d compared to other writing from the time that leaned on storytelling and mythology, said Michael Carter, a professor in the department of classics and archaeology at Brock University in St. Catharines, Ont. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s very rational, almost scientific in a way,\u201d said Carter. \u201cAnd in many ways, I would say he\u2019s the first real modern Western historian.\u201d <\/p>\n
While the \u201cHistory of the Peloponnesian War\u201d is considered a foundational work, the man who wrote it is more mysterious. What little is known about Thucydides\u2019 personal life is in his book and, for reasons unknown, his account of the war ends mid-sentence in 411 BCE. <\/p>\n
During the summit on Thursday, President Xi posed a series of questions to President Trump about future relations between their two countries, including the one referencing the \u2018Thucydides trap.\u2019 <\/p>\n
The term \u2018Thucydides trap\u2019 was popularized by political scientist Graham Allison in \u201cDestined for War,\u201d his 2017 book about China\u2013U.S. relations. It the idea that conflict is the likely outcome when a rising power threatens to challenge a ruling one (in the 16 historical examples Allison cites, only four avoid it). <\/p>\n
The theory is derived from a line in the \u201cHistory of the Peloponnesian War\u201d: \u201cIt was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable,\u201d according to a common translation. <\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s what Graham Allison\u2019s argument is, that the United States is the hegemon or the leader of the world and then there\u2019s China as a rapidly rising power,\u201d Carter said. \u201cAnd at one point, something is going to happen and there\u2019s going to be a break.\u201d <\/p>\n
In response to his own questions, Xi said the two leaders would have to answer them together. <\/p>\n
In his speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Carney also referenced a Thucydides quote. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt seems that every day we\u2019re reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules-based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must,\u201d Carney said in his remarks. <\/p>\n
The line about the strong and weak comes from the Melian dialogue portion of Thucydides\u2019 book and describes the Athenians\u2019 capture of the strategically important island of Melos. <\/p>\n
In discussions between the two sides\u2019 leaders, Carter said the Melians\u2019 arguments for why it was unjust to attack an independent state centered around ethics, morality and justice. This didn\u2019t sway their invaders \u2014 when the Melians resisted, the Athenians killed all the men and enslaved the women and children. <\/p>\n
\u201cWhat the Athenians are saying to the Melians at this point is, \u2018it\u2019s nothing personal. We\u2019re stronger than you and big fish eat little fish, and if you don\u2019t put on your big boy pants and join our empire, we\u2019ll destroy you,\u2019\u201d Carter said. <\/p>\n
Carter said Thucydides is considered the \u201cguiding light\u201d of political realism, the philosophy that states operate out of self-interest and the pursuit of power, not morals or ethics. <\/p>\n
In his Davos speech, Carney said Thucydides\u2019 aphorism about the strong and the weak is presented as \u201cinevitable\u201d or the \u201cnatural logic\u201d of international relations. But compliance won\u2019t buy safety, he said, urging middle power countries to build strategic autonomy and stating that Canada would pursue a \u201cvalues-based realism\u201d approach to foreign policy. <\/p>\n
Carter said Thucydides\u2019 quote is sometimes misunderstood as an endorsement rather than a historian\u2019s observation about the attitude that led to the decline of a great city-state, which was ultimately defeated by Sparta. <\/p>\n
\u201cI think what Thucydides is describing here is the tragedy of Athens and the foreshadowing of the destruction of Athens,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
Carter said the conflict between Sparta and Athens endures as a template for the theory of clashes between great powers because it represents a key theme that historians see repeated: a dominant power challenged by a rising one. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe remarkable thing is Thucydides knew that, because he understood human nature,\u201d said Carter. \u201cAnd that\u2019s one of the very first things he says in the book is that, \u2018I\u2019m writing this as an example, for all time, because people don\u2019t change, and this will happen again.\u2019\u201d <\/p>\n