{"id":73190,"date":"2026-05-11T11:58:28","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T11:58:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/05\/11\/posthaste-this-condo-correction-could-be-one-of-the-longest-on-record\/"},"modified":"2026-05-11T11:58:28","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T11:58:28","slug":"posthaste-this-condo-correction-could-be-one-of-the-longest-on-record","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/05\/11\/posthaste-this-condo-correction-could-be-one-of-the-longest-on-record\/","title":{"rendered":"Posthaste: This condo correction could be one of the longest on record"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Back in the late 1980s to mid 1990s, the condo market in the Greater Toronto Area underwent a crash so severe that it took seven years before prices began to turn around. <\/p>\n

Today the city\u2019s current condo correction is on course \u2014 if not to match that record-breaking meltdown \u2014 to at least come close, says TD Economics\u2019 Rishi Sondhi. <\/p>\n

Now entering its fourth year, Toronto\u2019s condo downturn is showing no sign of abating. In the first quarter, benchmark condo prices dropped 10 per cent from the year before, the biggest plunge yet since the decline started in 2023. <\/p>\n

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Condo sales were down 11 per cent from the year before and about 40 per cent below the 10-year average as the headwinds that have dogged the sector continue: too much supply and too little demand. <\/p>\n

Sondhi said demand is likely to remain weak this year as economic uncertainty drags on, job growth lags and potential buyers struggle under the high cost of living. <\/p>\n

With prices still falling, buyers are less likely to jump into the market if they expect even better deals to come. <\/p>\n

Ontario\u2019s population is also decreasing, which lowers demand for rental properties and reduces the rents landlords can charge, driving investors from the sector. <\/p>\n

Nor is this about to change anytime soon. Even though condo completions have fallen off, stalling sales have slowed the absorption of inventory, meaning that supply will remain elevated this year, he said. <\/p>\n

Condo prices are expected to drop six to seven per cent this year and up to three per cent next before the turnaround takes hold, said TD. <\/p>\n

\u201cPutting all the pieces together, it will likely take until 2028 before condo prices trend higher in earnest,\u201d said Sondhi. <\/p>\n

That would put the duration of the current correction at almost six years \u2014 \u201csomewhat shy of the \u201980s-\u201990s meltdown.\u201d <\/p>\n

But the drop in prices \u2014 which will be up to 30 per cent peak-to-trough \u2014 is in line with that earlier record crash. <\/p>\n

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Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/em> <\/p>\n

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Canada has lost 112,000 jobs so far in 2026, the worst start to a year since 2009, outside of the pandemic. <\/p>\n

Details from April\u2019s data are also concerning, said National Bank economists, because all of the job losses were full-time and in the private sector. The weakness is widespread with 10 out of 16 sectors posting declines, \u201cagain the worst breadth since 2009.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cFor the Bank of Canada, not sure we can be any more direct, but it\u2019s incredibly tough to see the logic behind the market\u2019s pricing of more than one rate hike later this year, when the economy is struggling mightily to take even one step forward,\u201d said BMO Capital Markets chief economist Douglas Porter in a note after the latest data came out Friday. <\/p>\n

Read the latest on Canada\u2019s job market <\/p>\n

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  • Trans Mountain Corp. chief executive Mark Maki and Elizabeth Wademan, chief executive of the Canada Development Investment Corp., speak on energy and infrastructure development at the Canadian Club Toronto.<\/li>\n
  • Today\u2019s Data:<\/strong> United States existing home sales<\/li>\n
  • Earnings:<\/strong> Barrick Mining Corp., Constellation Energy Corp.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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    <\/figure>\n
    \n

    \"\"<\/strong> <\/p>\n

      \n
    • Canadian households were worth $1.08 million on average in 2025: How do you stack up?<\/li>\n
    • Three central banks just sent Tiff Macklem a message<\/li>\n
    • Mark convinced his mom to seek financial advice. What are important questions to ask?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      \n

      \"\" <\/p>\n

      Canadian household wealth hit a new collective high of $18.59 trillion at the end of 2025, bolstered by strong financial markets. Economists say future growth will likely depend on continued strength in the stock market as the housing slowdown persists. The Financial Post\u2019s Serah Louis breaks down the state of household wealth across the country and the assets that could drive \u2014 or drag down \u2014 gains in 2026. Read more <\/p>\n

      \n

      <\/span>\"\" Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country\u2019s most important sectors. Sign up here. <\/p>\n

      \n
      Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at <\/span>wealth@postmedia.com<\/span> with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we\u2019ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we\u2019ll keep your name out of it, of course).<\/span><\/div>\n
      \n

      McLister on mortgages<\/h2>\n

      Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. <\/p>\n

      \n

      Financial Post on YouTube<\/h2>\n

      Visit the Financial Post\u2019s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. <\/p>\n

      \n

      Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.<\/em> <\/p>\n

      Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com . <\/p>\n

      \n
        \n
      • Young Canadians are once again leaving Atlantic Canada<\/li>\n
      • Trump’s tariff tweak just ripped a new swathe through Canada’s manufacturing heartland<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/em> <\/p>\n

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        Posthaste: This condo correction could be one of the longest on record<\/a>
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        2026-05-11 11:58:28<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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