{"id":68778,"date":"2026-01-16T20:56:39","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T20:56:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/01\/16\/canadian-economy-expected-to-recover-in-q1-after-turbulent-2025-report-says\/"},"modified":"2026-01-16T20:56:39","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T20:56:39","slug":"canadian-economy-expected-to-recover-in-q1-after-turbulent-2025-report-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2026\/01\/16\/canadian-economy-expected-to-recover-in-q1-after-turbulent-2025-report-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian economy expected to recover in Q1 after turbulent 2025, report says"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><\/div><p> \n<br \/><br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"EV tariffs could be Canada&#039;s bargaining chip in China\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/d2hK_tFbRvo?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><br \/>\n<\/iframe><\/p>\n<p> After a \u201cturbulent\u201d 2025, the <\/p>\n<p>                        Canadian economy<\/p>\n<p>                         is <\/p>\n<p>                        poised for modest growth<\/p>\n<p>                         in the first quarter of 2026 and throughout the year, according to the latest Main Street quarterly report by the <\/p>\n<p>                        Canadian Federation of Independent Business<\/p>\n<p>                         (CFIB). <\/p>\n<p> The report, released Thursday, forecasts 3.4 per cent growth in <\/p>\n<p>                        Q1 2026<\/p>\n<p>                        , following estimated growth of 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025. <\/p>\n<p> After a contraction in the second quarter of last year and a rebound in the third, December\u2019s estimate means year-over-year growth slowed to 0.9 per cent, while <\/p>\n<p>                        overall GDP growth<\/p>\n<p>                         settled at 1.7 per cent in 2025, up from 1.6 per cent in 2024. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cLooking ahead, GDP growth is expected to accelerate in the first quarter of 2026,\u201d CFIB said in its report. <\/p>\n<p> GDP growth \u201cremains relatively resilient given persistent geopolitical tensions and global trade uncertainty,\u201d the report said. <\/p>\n<p> While total inflation is close to the Bank of Canada\u2019s target, the CFIB noted that inflation dynamics ultimately depend on those persistent issues. <\/p>\n<p> The <\/p>\n<p>                        Consumer Price Index<\/p>\n<p>                         (CPI) rose to 2.2 per cent year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and is expected to edge up slightly to 2.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, it said. <\/p>\n<p> In partnership with the consulting firm AppEco, CFIB develops early short-term economic forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators using CFIB\u2019s business outlook survey. The group is Canada\u2019s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 100,000 members across industries. <\/p>\n<p> The Main Street report said private investment in Canada steadied in the fourth quarter despite the effects of lingering uncertainty on business plans. Year on year, private investment declined by 1.2 per cent, however the CFIB expects investment to recover by 3.5 per cent in the first quarter. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cIt\u2019s encouraging to see it slightly rebounding,\u201d it said, adding that small businesses are adapting to the new trade reality. <\/p>\n<p> If uncertainty eases, private investment would recover even further, said the CFIB, but <\/p>\n<p>                        bold policy changes<\/p>\n<p>                         are needed, including a reduction of taxes and red tape and removal of internal trade barriers. <\/p>\n<p> It said the <\/p>\n<p>                        private sector job vacancy rate<\/p>\n<p>                         in the fourth quarter of 2025 remained unchanged at 2.8 per cent, representing 387,600 unfilled positions. <\/p>\n<p> Despite the evidence of Canadian economic resilience, the CFIB said that its analysis of business dynamics paints \u201ca troubling picture.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> It said Canada\u2019s economic pulse depends on a healthy private sector, and can\u2019t keep losing businesses without new ones entering the market. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThis is a wake-up call for policymakers to create a stronger and more competitive economic environment,\u201d it said. <\/p>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li>Bay Street raises the most money in 15 years despite economic uncertainty<\/li>\n<li>Deloitte downgrades Canadian growth outlook for 2026, warning of &#8216;slow start&#8217; to year<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <em>\u2022 Email: dpaglinawan@postmedia.com<\/em> <\/p>\n\n<br \/>Canadian economy expected to recover in Q1 after turbulent 2025, report says<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2026-01-16 20:56:39<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After a \u201cturbulent\u201d 2025, the Canadian economy is poised for modest growth in the first quarter of 2026 and throughout the year, according to the latest Main Street quarterly report&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":68780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0117-mg-bank-of-canada.jpg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68778","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68778"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68778\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/68780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}