{"id":65555,"date":"2025-10-20T12:05:40","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T12:05:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/10\/20\/posthaste-the-biggest-oil-glut-the-world-has-ever-seen-is-about-to-come-ashore\/"},"modified":"2025-10-20T12:05:40","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T12:05:40","slug":"posthaste-the-biggest-oil-glut-the-world-has-ever-seen-is-about-to-come-ashore","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/10\/20\/posthaste-the-biggest-oil-glut-the-world-has-ever-seen-is-about-to-come-ashore\/","title":{"rendered":"Posthaste: The biggest oil glut the world has ever seen is about to come ashore"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<br \/><br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Layoffs as oil prices come down\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/moYOouFb6u0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><br \/>\n<\/iframe><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> Crude prices look set for a deeper plunge as signs grow that the <\/p>\n<p>                        world\u2019s oil surplus<\/p>\n<p>                         is bigger than anyone expected. <\/p>\n<p> Estimates put the supply of oil now floating in tankers on the world\u2019s oceans at 1 billion barrels. The last time it was this high was during the pandemic when a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia sent Brent crude spiralling to US$30 a barrel, said Capital Economics. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThis implies that an oil glut is on the horizon,\u201d said Hamad Hussain, Capital\u2019s climate and commodities economist. <\/p>\n<p> Last week, the <\/p>\n<p>                        International Energy Agency<\/p>\n<p>                         warned the oversupply of oil will be bigger than forecast, and said the excess was starting to accumulate on ocean-going tankers. It predicts that world oil supply will exceed demand by almost 4 million barrels a day in 2026, the biggest surplus ever on an annual basis. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cLooking ahead, as the significant volumes of crude oil on water move onshore to major oil hubs, crude stocks look set to surge,\u201d the IEA said. <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/oilstocks-1020-ph.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> The surplus has been driven by a drop in demand and an increase in supply after OPEC+ unwound years of production cuts in a matter of months. <\/p>\n<p> The group of oil-producing nations has raised output by more than 1.5 million barrels a day since April, said Hussain. The oil exports of Saudi Arabia alone rose by 10 per cent in September. <\/p>\n<p> The oversupply has been masked in recent months by extraordinary stockpiling by China, but analysts question how long this will continue and how much the nation can absorb. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cBeijing\u2019s hoarding tendencies can\u2019t last forever,\u201d said Rory Johnston, an oil market analyst in Canada and founder of Commodity Context. In the bigger picture, China\u2019s demand for oil has shrunk dramatically since it led the world in 2023. <\/p>\n<p> Western Texas Intermediate prices<\/p>\n<p>                         have slumped in recent months to below US$60, (It was at US$57 today), compared to a range of US$70 to US$80 in 2023-24, and highs of US$120 in 2022. <\/p>\n<p> But Capital Economics predicts the price could fall to US$46 by the end of next year as the full impact of OPEC+ production increases hit the market. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThe most straightforward of economic concepts is driving this decline: There\u2019s simply too much supply relative to how much the world is consuming,\u201d said Johnston. <\/p>\n<p> Falling prices will eventually correct the market imbalance, he said, either by increasing demand or, more likely, by global producers pulling back. <\/p>\n<p> U.S. shale producers will probably be the first to blink, he said. The <\/p>\n<p>                        average oil price<\/p>\n<p>                         needed to drill a new well there is in the low US$60s, and projects have already been scrapped because they are unprofitable. <\/p>\n<p> Canadian <\/p>\n<p>                        oilsands production<\/p>\n<p>                         can get by on less, but it would still be tight. The Alberta Energy Regulator estimates the sustainable oil price at $50 to $78 per barrel. <\/p>\n<p> Johnston said the lower oil prices of the next year or so are likely temporary, an \u201cecho\u201d of the artificial tightness of 2023 and 2024. <\/p>\n<p> Only after \u201ca new market equilibrium is established will we begin to get a firmer sense of what the end of the decade \u2014 and perhaps the end of oil demand growth itself \u2014 will look like for the global oil industry,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em><strong>\u00a0Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/em> <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><br \/> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1758646\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/subhead_leading.png\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/government-spending-1017.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> Government in Canada isn\u2019t small, but it\u2019s not the biggest either, a comparison by the International Monetary Fund reveals. Canada\u2019s government expenditure relative to gross domestic product is above the advanced economy average, points out National Bank of Canada economist Warren Lovely. <\/p>\n<p> But it\u2019s lower than some parts of Western Europe where government spending may not be as sustainable because of demographic pressures and stretched balance sheets. <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/subhead-1.jpg\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bank of Canada releases its business outlook and consumer expectations surveys<\/li>\n<li><strong>Today\u2019s Data:<\/strong> Canada\u2019s industrial product price, raw materials price index<\/li>\n<li><strong>Earnings:<\/strong> PrairieSky Royalty Ltd., Steel Dynamics Inc.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080180\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_marketsam.jpeg\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/chart-1017--1.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> \u00a0 <\/p>\n<p> \u00a0 <\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\"><\/figure>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080181\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_reads.jpeg\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Amid gas glut in Western Canada, tanker traffic from LNG Canada falls short of expectations<\/li>\n<li>Garry Marr: Watch out Edmonton \u2014 people from Toronto and Vancouver are coming for your homes<\/li>\n<li>12 hacks to make your debt-to-income ratio more palatable for lenders<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2059284\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/subhead_personal_finance_2.png\" width=\"838\" \/> <\/p>\n<p> Laid off at 52, with no company pension and less than $250,000 in RRSPs, Ryan turned to FP Answers for help. Our experts say there is hope, but Ryan must act strategically to survive unemployment and set himself up for catching up on retirement saving. <\/p>\n<p>                        Find out more <\/p>\n<p> \u00a0 <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"x_elementToProof\"><span>Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at\u00a0<\/span>wealth@postmedia.com<span><\/span><span>\u00a0with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we\u2019ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we\u2019ll keep your name out of it, of course).<\/span><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>McLister on mortgages<\/h2>\n<p> Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s <\/p>\n<p>                        Financial Post column <\/p>\n<p>                        can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus check his <\/p>\n<p>                        mortgage rate page<\/p>\n<p>                         for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Financial Post on YouTube<\/h2>\n<p> Visit the Financial Post\u2019s <\/p>\n<p>                        YouTube channel<\/p>\n<p>                         for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em>Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.<\/em> <\/p>\n<p> Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                        posthaste@postmedia.com<\/p>\n<p>                        . <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li>Don&#8217;t let Trump supporters fool you. The U.S. economy might not be all right<\/li>\n<li>Canada&#8217;s home sales are finally rising \u2014 but prices are not<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add\u00a0financialpost.com\u00a0to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/em> <\/p>\n<p><\/img><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<br \/>Posthaste: The biggest oil glut the world has ever seen is about to come ashore<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2025-10-20 12:05:40<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crude prices look set for a deeper plunge as signs grow that the world\u2019s oil surplus is bigger than anyone expected. Estimates put the supply of oil now floating in&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":65556,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-65555","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65555"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65555\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/65556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}