{"id":64406,"date":"2025-09-19T15:36:53","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T15:36:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/09\/19\/opinion-the-final-act-of-the-trade-war-a-three-act-play-has-just-begun-the-audience-hopes-for-resolution\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T15:36:53","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T15:36:53","slug":"opinion-the-final-act-of-the-trade-war-a-three-act-play-has-just-begun-the-audience-hopes-for-resolution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/09\/19\/opinion-the-final-act-of-the-trade-war-a-three-act-play-has-just-begun-the-audience-hopes-for-resolution\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: The final act of The Trade War: A Three-Act Play has just begun. The audience hopes for resolution"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<br \/><br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Canada faces hurdles to replace massive U.S. market\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Txgnl_FKWso?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><br \/>\n<\/iframe><\/p>\n<p> In March, then foreign affairs minister, <\/p>\n<p>                        M\u00e9lanie Joly<\/p>\n<p>                        , made headlines by describing the early days of the <\/p>\n<p>                        U.S. trade war<\/p>\n<p>                         as a \u201cpsychodrama,\u201d suggesting the country couldn\u2019t live with the chaos and uncertainty of <\/p>\n<p>                        new tariffs<\/p>\n<p>                         being announced \u201cevery 30 days.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> With more than 200 days now behind us, it\u2019s hard not to see some drama in the trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada. <\/p>\n<p>                        President Donald Trump<\/p>\n<p>                        \u2018s experience in reality television has been on full display, from his impassioned monologues at MAGA rallies to his Apprentice-like Oval Office meetings. His mastery of raw theatrics rival many of the stage\u2019s greats. <\/p>\n<p> If the trade war with the U.S. is a three-act play, then our best hope for resolution will come in the third act: the <\/p>\n<p>                        CUSMA review<\/p>\n<p>                        . Its outcome will determine whether the past months have been a prelude to comedy or economic tragedy. <\/p>\n<p> Act I in \u201cThe Trade War\u201d was Canada\u2019s \u2018Elbows Up\u2019 election. In the study of drama, this act would be termed \u201cin media res\u201d \u2014 where the audience is literally thrown \u201cinto the middle of things.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> In this case, the audience was subjected to the shock of seeing the president rapidly and unpredictably set his trade agenda; Prime Minister Trudeau fold his hand; and a sudden leadership contest followed by a snap election (with a surprising result). With all the \u201celbows up, elbows down\u201d calls, there were moments when it felt a bit like a Broadway musical. <\/p>\n<p> Act II was the \u201cdeus ex machina\u201d \u2014 a technique used in Ancient Greek theatre in which a god literally descends to the stage via pulley to make complex problems go away. As audience members, we\u2019ve been trained to expect that the build-up of plot and conflict will suddenly evaporate with the introduction of a new character, a speech, a quick handshake agreement. <\/p>\n<p> Instead, the constant promise and delay of an all-caps \u201cDEAL,\u201d which we expected would be reached at the G7 in July (or in August, or September) has felt more like the plotless \u201ctheatre of the absurd\u201d of Samuel Beckett\u2019s Waiting for Godot, in which the deity, and resolution, never arrives. <\/p>\n<p> Which brings us to the final act of this play: the impending review of CUSMA, our trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico. <\/p>\n<p> During the first two acts, we were enthralled by the rapid-fire announcements of new \u201cdeals\u201d and unsure how we should react. But with all that melodrama, what\u2019s been largely overlooked is that the vast majority of Canadian trade still goes to the U.S. tariff-free, thanks to CUSMA. As serious as it is that steel, aluminum and the auto sector have been red-circled by the U.S., most of our trade still continues unabated. <\/p>\n<p> Here\u2019s the plot twist: as major economies such as Japan, the UK and EU agree to tariffs and quotas that were unthinkable mere months ago, and as American stockpiles of pre-tariff supplies dwindle to nothing, there is no place for higher prices to go but into the marketplace. <\/p>\n<p> That is why inflation in the U.S. first started to tick up in June and why it continues to grow. It\u2019s why many U.S. businesses, in particular smaller and independent ones, say the rising costs from tariffs are now forcing them to layoff staff and hike prices. <\/p>\n<p> The U.S. Chamber of Commerce calculates tariffs amounted to a consumer tax of US$1.9 billion on food costs in the months of May and June alone, when America\u2019s domestic supply should have been plentiful. <\/p>\n<p> At the end of the day, the U.S. and Canada are each other\u2019s top customer: bilateral trade between the two nations must \u2014 and will \u2014 continue. <\/p>\n<p> Canadians have understandably felt victimized, but for far too long we\u2019ve been complacent spectators to our own economy. As we wake up to the fact that we cannot take our trade relationships for granted, we must also commit to being the lead actors in shaping our own economy. <\/p>\n<p> We have the opportunity to ensure a strong future for our country. Diversify our trade? Absolutely. Try to make the most of our shared border with the world\u2019s largest economy? Duh. <\/p>\n<p> In the classic tragedy Richard III, an embattled king sees his grand designs for power and control slipping away from him. Facing disaster, he yells out one of Shakespeare\u2019s most famous lines: \u201cA horse! A horse! My kingdom for a horse!\u201d <\/p>\n<p> As the wild ride of 2025 begins to fade and we look to the potential renegotiation of CUSMA in 2026, time will tell how smart it was for Canada to go slow with the horse-trading that other countries moved on so quickly. <\/p>\n<p> Theatrics aside, elbows where they normally go, Canada\u2019s best interests will be served by focusing squarely on the key pieces of CUSMA \u2014 our real path to trade peace with the U.S. If we can\u2019t strike a long-term deal, we\u2019ll be left with ongoing uncertainty and fading investment: destined to repeat the same scene by reviewing CUSMA every year. The cost of that would be tragic. <\/p>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li>U.S. ambassador to Canada says anti-American rhetoric hurting trade relations<\/li>\n<li>U.S. launches CUSMA review process with public consultations<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <em>Matthew Holmes is chief of public policy at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n<br \/>Opinion: The final act of The Trade War: A Three-Act Play has just begun. The audience hopes for resolution<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2025-09-19 15:36:53<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In March, then foreign affairs minister, M\u00e9lanie Joly , made headlines by describing the early days of the U.S. trade war as a \u201cpsychodrama,\u201d suggesting the country couldn\u2019t live with&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":64408,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-64406","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64406","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64406"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64406\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/64408"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}