{"id":63997,"date":"2025-09-09T12:00:48","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T12:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/09\/09\/posthaste-recession-talk-in-canada-is-growing-as-sobering-jobs-picture-comes-into-view\/"},"modified":"2025-09-09T12:00:48","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T12:00:48","slug":"posthaste-recession-talk-in-canada-is-growing-as-sobering-jobs-picture-comes-into-view","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/09\/09\/posthaste-recession-talk-in-canada-is-growing-as-sobering-jobs-picture-comes-into-view\/","title":{"rendered":"Posthaste: Recession talk in Canada is growing as sobering jobs picture comes into view"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<br \/><br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Roadmap for central banks not so clear: Belski\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_jJo4IMopEI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><br \/>\n<\/iframe><\/p>\n<p> \u00a0 <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> \u00a0 <\/p>\n<p> Talk of a Canadian <\/p>\n<p>                        recession<\/p>\n<p>                         is cropping up in the notes of one top Bay Street economist. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cNever before in the annals of recorded Canadian economic history has the economy managed to escape an official recession with such a dramatic move off the cycle low,\u201d David Rosenberg, chief executive at Rosenberg Research and Associates Inc., said in a note, referring to the dramatic downturn in Canada\u2019s labour picture. <\/p>\n<p> Among the sobering numbers from Friday\u2019s <\/p>\n<p>                        labour force survey<\/p>\n<p>                         was a loss of 66,000 <\/p>\n<p>                        jobs in August<\/p>\n<p>                        . That, coupled with the loss of 41,000 positions in July, means the economy has shed a net 40,000 jobs since the beginning of March, which is \u201cthe steepest downturn since August 2020,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<p> There\u2019s more. The private sector continued to shed positions in August from July, while full-time <\/p>\n<p>                        employment<\/p>\n<p>                         also pulled back. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThis is key because it is full-time employment that is ultimately the driver of <\/p>\n<p>                        consumer confidence<\/p>\n<p>                         and spending,\u201d Rosenberg said. <\/p>\n<p> More broadly, only 65 per cent of people who started looking for work over the past 12 months were able to find employment as the level of joblessness rose by nearly eight per cent. If not for the fewer people hunting for jobs, he estimates Canada\u2019s <\/p>\n<p>                        unemployment rate<\/p>\n<p>                         would have risen to 7.2 per cent rather than 7.1 per cent. As it is, the unemployment rate has soared 230 basis points from the \u201ccycle low\u201d of 4.8 per cent in July 2022. <\/p>\n<p> The job market is exhibiting some other recessionary characteristics, too. Desjardins Economics, in a report last Thursday, said the current <\/p>\n<p>                        youth unemployment rate<\/p>\n<p>                         \u201cis now at a level more commonly seen during a recession.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> The unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24 in August was 14.5 per cent, according to Statistics Canada, compared to nine per cent in July 2022. <\/p>\n<p> Youth unemployment is typically higher than that for workers aged 25 to 54, the Desjardins economists said, adding that younger workers tend to bear more of the brunt during times of economic uncertainty and weakness. <\/p>\n<p> The economists, Kari Norman, LJ Valencia and Randall Bartlett, said the poor prospects for young people are something of a canary in the coal mine. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cLooking back over the past half-century, we see that each of the previous upticks in Canada\u2019s youth unemployment rate corresponded with a recession,\u201d they said. \u201cThe gap between youth and core\u2011aged unemployment rates also widened during economic downturns.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> Young people are the most vulnerable when the economy is not meeting its output potential, especially since their work is often part time, seasonal and \u201cprecarious.\u201d They could also be bearing the brunt of an increase in foreign workers, <\/p>\n<p>                        artificial intelligence<\/p>\n<p>                         and the rise of gig work. <\/p>\n<p> The sluggish data coming out of the United States is another reason Canadians should be fearful, given that approximately 70 per cent of Canada\u2019s exports flow to the U.S. <\/p>\n<p> Rosenberg said recessionary shadows are dogging the U.S. labour market based on that country\u2019s poor jobs report, which also came out on Friday. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThis is the sort of job market pattern one typically sees before an official recession takes hold, but nobody seems to believe an economic downturn will ever occur again,\u201d he said. \u201cThe bull market remains in hubris and complacency.\u201d <\/p>\n<p> The U.S. economy added 22,000 jobs in August, well off the estimates for 75,000 additional jobs, while the supply of people available to work continued to build in August from July. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cWhat really stood out,\u201d Rosenberg said, was the ongoing revisions to the job numbers in June. Those numbers \u2014 infamous for leading to the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics \u2014 now indicate a loss of 13,000 positions compared with a gain of 147,000 when they were first released, and a preliminary revision to an almost negligible gain of 14,000 positions. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cAdding to the angst and anxiety evident in this report was the news that full-time employment from the companion Household Survey collapsed by 357,000 after a 440,000 plunge in July,\u201d he said, adding that almost one million full-time jobs have disappeared over the past four months. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cThe Household Survey is definitely flashing a recession signal, and the payroll survey is not far behind,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em><strong>\u00a0Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/em> <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><br \/> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1758646\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/subhead_leading.png\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/electric-vehicle-registrations-.png\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<p>Electric vehicle sales in Canada plummeted in the second quarter even as overall auto sales remained brisk.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<p>Registrations of new battery-EVs dropped 39.2 per cent year over year, while plug-in hybrid EV registrations fell 2.2 per cent, according to Statistics Canada data on Monday. <em>\u2014 Gabriel Friedman, Financial Post<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Read the full story here.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"story-v2-content-element-inline\">\n<hr \/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"story-v2-content-element article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<div class=\"visually-hidden\"><\/div>\n<\/section><\/div>\n<\/section><\/div>\n<\/section><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1758643\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/subhead_breaking.png\" width=\"838\" \/> <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Today\u2019s Data: <\/strong>U.S. NFIB small business optimism and preliminary benchmark payrolls revision<\/li>\n<li><strong>Earnings: <\/strong>GameStop Corp., Oracle Corp.<br \/> <br \/>\n<hr \/>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080180\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_marketsam.jpeg\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-09-071522.png\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\"><\/figure>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080181\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_reads.jpeg\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Strathcona ups offer for MEG, calls Cenovus\u2019 rival bid a \u2018car crash\u2019<\/li>\n<li>Canadians hit the brakes on EV purchases in second quarter even as overall auto sales remain brisk<\/li>\n<li>Capitalism for big firms, risk for everyone else: Why the investment landscape needs a reset<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2059284\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/subhead_personal_finance_2.png\" width=\"838\" \/> <\/p>\n<p> Taking out a mortgage is often referred to as one of the bigger financial transactions Canadians will undertake in their lifetimes. So it wouldn\u2019t seem out of place to seek out advice on how to proceed. Mortgage expert Robert McLister recently asked the question: How much is good advice really worth when it comes to mortgage shopping? Read his column <\/p>\n<p>                        here<\/p>\n<p>                         to find out more. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at <\/p>\n<p>                        wealth@postmedia.com<\/p>\n<p>                         with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we\u2019ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we\u2019ll keep your name out of it, of course). <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>McLister on mortgages<\/h2>\n<p> Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s <\/p>\n<p>                        Financial Post column <\/p>\n<p>                        can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus, check out his <\/p>\n<p>                        mortgage rate page<\/p>\n<p>                         for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Financial Post on YouTube<\/h2>\n<p> Visit the Financial Post\u2019s <\/p>\n<p>                        YouTube channel<\/p>\n<p>                         for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em>Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, Canadian Press and Bloomberg.<\/em> <\/p>\n<p> Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at <\/p>\n<p>                        posthaste@postmedia.com<\/p>\n<p>                        . <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li>Posthaste: Is a Bank of Canada rate cut in the bag given the cratering job market?<\/li>\n<li>Posthaste: Canadians might be surprised at just how low U.S. tariffs on Canada&#8217;s exports really are<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add\u00a0financialpost.com\u00a0to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/em> <\/p>\n\n<br \/>Posthaste: Recession talk in Canada is growing as sobering jobs picture comes into view<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2025-09-09 12:00:48<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0 \u00a0 Talk of a Canadian recession is cropping up in the notes of one top Bay Street economist. \u201cNever before in the annals of recorded Canadian economic history has&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":63998,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-63997","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63997"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63997\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/63998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}