{"id":62388,"date":"2025-07-28T11:59:37","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T11:59:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/07\/28\/posthaste-fasten-your-seatbelts-we-could-be-in-for-a-wild-ride-in-markets-this-week\/"},"modified":"2025-07-28T11:59:37","modified_gmt":"2025-07-28T11:59:37","slug":"posthaste-fasten-your-seatbelts-we-could-be-in-for-a-wild-ride-in-markets-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/07\/28\/posthaste-fasten-your-seatbelts-we-could-be-in-for-a-wild-ride-in-markets-this-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Posthaste: Fasten your seatbelts, we could be in for a wild ride in markets this week"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\"The
\n<\/p>\n

Beware the end of the month, say analysts, because events this week are setting the stage for a wild ride in <\/p>\n

stock markets.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

Last year the week marking the end of July and beginning of August ushered in the worst market turmoil of 2024, say Deutsche Bank analysts. <\/p>\n

\u201cThis year, that week looks seriously problematic again from a market perspective,\u201d said Deutsche macro strategist Henry Allen. <\/p>\n

At the top of the volatility risks is Donald Trump\u2019s <\/p>\n

deadline for tariffs<\/p>\n

on Friday. <\/p>\n

A <\/p>\n

deal announced Sunday<\/p>\n

between the United States and European Union that will see the eurozone face 15 per cent tariffs on most of its exports will ease some of that pressure. European stocks \u00a0and U.S futures climbed this morning after news of the agreement. <\/p>\n

But of the 25 countries Trump sent letters to regarding tariffs, many remain without deals, including major trading partners like Canada and Mexico. <\/p>\n

Scotiabank analysts estimate that the United States has imposed an effective tariff rate on its imports of about 17.5 per cent so far, (not including the EU deal), up from 2.3 per cent at the start of the year, the highest rate since 1935. <\/p>\n

If Trump goes ahead with all the tariffs that have been announced, but paused, and are under investigation, that rate would jump to 24 per cent, the highest since 1906. <\/p>\n

A 50 per cent tariff on copper imports also kicks in Friday. <\/p>\n

\u201cWhatever happens this week, the \u00a0evolution of the tariff threat is highly unlikely to be anywhere close to being over,\u201d said Derek Holt, Scotiabank\u2019s head of Capital Markets Economics. <\/p>\n

The worry, according to Allen, is that markets are not pricing in these higher tariffs. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt can become a bit of a clich\u00e9 that markets are \u2018priced to perfection\u2019 \u2013 but it\u2019s certainly clear that markets aren\u2019t accounting for the tariffs snapping back higher on Aug. 1. So there\u2019s the potential for a large market reaction if it does happen, because investors aren\u2019t pricing that in yet,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

And that\u2019s not the only hazard ahead. <\/p>\n

U.S. data on <\/p>\n

gross domestic product<\/p>\n

for the second quarter comes out Wednesday, followed by the <\/p>\n

U.S. jobs report<\/p>\n

on Friday, the same day as the tariff deadline. <\/p>\n

Weaker than expected economic data (especially jobs) tipped the markets into turmoil last year at this time. <\/p>\n

\u201cSo if higher tariffs were followed by an underwhelming U.S. jobs report that same day, markets could face a big problem as investors re-assess the economic outlook,\u201d said Allen. <\/p>\n

The U.S. Treasury also releases its Quarterly Refunding Announcement this week. On the last day of July in 2023, this announcement included higher-than-expected borrowing needs, and signalled further increases in long-term debt sales, triggering a <\/p>\n

selloff in Treasuries<\/p>\n

that pushed the 10-year yield up almost a full percentage point. <\/p>\n

Within days, Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. credit rating. <\/p>\n

Long-end bond yields are heading into this week at higher rates than seen earlier this year, so it won\u2019t take much to move them into \u201cproblematic territory,\u201d said Allen. <\/p>\n

Also on deck are interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, <\/p>\n

Bank of Canada<\/p>\n

and Bank of Japan, among others. <\/p>\n

The Fed, like Canada\u2019s central bank, is expected to hold its rate Wednesday, but pressure is growing from the White House to make a cut. A hawkish <\/p>\n

Federal Reserve<\/p>\n

could push market anxiety up a notch. <\/p>\n

If that\u2019s not enough, earnings season hits its peak this week with over 40 per cent of S&P 500 companies and about 60 on the TSX reporting results. <\/p>\n

So far earnings have been great for markets, with 80 per cent of S&P 500 companies exceeding profit estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. <\/p>\n

But heavyweights reporting this week include <\/p>\n

Apple Inc.<\/p>\n

, Amazon.com Inc. and <\/p>\n

Microsoft Corp.<\/p>\n

, companies that face mounting tariff pressure as consumer demand slows. <\/p>\n

So, much is up in the air as we enter the week, but one thing looks certain. <\/p>\n

\u201cJuly is going to go out with a bang, or several,\u201d said Scotiabank\u2019s Holt. <\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/em> <\/p>\n

\n


\"\"<\/strong> <\/p>\n

\"<\/p>\n

Ontario and British Columbia households top the charts for net worth in Canada, with both provinces over $1.2 million on average. <\/p>\n

But they also have the highest debt-to-income ratios, as they struggle to afford the higher cost of living in these provinces, particularly in large urban centres like Toronto and Vancouver. <\/p>\n

More expensive housing means more mortgage debt. In Ontario, the average household mortgage liability amounts to $167,620, while in B.C., it is $162,890. <\/p>\n

Quebec saw the biggest gains in wealth, increasing the average net worth by 4.16 per cent to $788,508. Saskatchewan households were not far behind, with a 4.15 per cent increase, hitting $885,350 per household. <\/p>\n

Read more on the breakdown of Canada\u2019s wealth here <\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Earnings:<\/strong> Celestica Inc., TFI Interna\u021bional Inc.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \"\"<\/strong> <\/p>\n

    \"<\/p>\n

    <\/figure>\n
    \n

    \"\"<\/strong> <\/p>\n

      \n
    • How to break your mortgage without breaking the bank <\/li>\n
    • Canadians shunning products hit by retaliatory tariffs, Loblaw CEO says <\/li>\n
    • Would a new $150,000 limit be enough to protect Canadians\u2019 deposits in case of a bank failure?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      \"\" <\/p>\n

      At 82, Robert has $55,000 in his RRIF and the urge to travel. He lives fairly frugally on his Canada Pension Plan, Old Age Security and the minimum RRIF withdrawal amount, but wonders if he can draw down more from his portfolio without hiking his taxes. <\/p>\n

      FP Answers crunches the numbers. <\/p>\n

      \n
      Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at\u00a0<\/span>wealth@postmedia.com<\/span>\u00a0with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we\u2019ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we\u2019ll keep your name out of it, of course).<\/span><\/div>\n
      \n

      McLister on mortgages<\/h2>\n

      Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s <\/p>\n

      Financial Post column <\/p>\n

      can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus check his <\/p>\n

      mortgage rate page<\/p>\n

      for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. <\/p>\n

      \n

      Financial Post on YouTube<\/h2>\n

      Visit the Financial Post\u2019s <\/p>\n

      YouTube channel<\/p>\n

      for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. <\/p>\n

      \n

      Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.<\/em> <\/p>\n

      Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at\u00a0<\/p>\n

      posthaste@postmedia.com<\/p>\n

      . <\/p>\n

      \n
        \n
      • If a 15% tariff is the ‘new normal,’ would that be a ‘bitter pill’ for Canada?<\/li>\n
      • ‘Buy Canadian’ is going strong except in one very important marketplace<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add\u00a0financialpost.com\u00a0to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/em> <\/p>\n

        <\/img>
        \n
        \n
        Posthaste: Fasten your seatbelts, we could be in for a wild ride in markets this week<\/a>
        \n
        2025-07-28 11:59:37<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Beware the end of the month, say analysts, because events this week are setting the stage for a wild ride in stock markets.\u00a0 Last year the week marking the end…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62389,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62388\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/62389"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}