{"id":61654,"date":"2025-07-08T12:01:37","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T12:01:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/07\/08\/posthaste-canadians-should-brace-for-bigger-federal-budget-deficit-than-they-thought\/"},"modified":"2025-07-08T12:01:37","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T12:01:37","slug":"posthaste-canadians-should-brace-for-bigger-federal-budget-deficit-than-they-thought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/07\/08\/posthaste-canadians-should-brace-for-bigger-federal-budget-deficit-than-they-thought\/","title":{"rendered":"Posthaste: Canadians should brace for bigger federal budget deficit than they thought"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Canadians are in the dark about Ottawa\u2019s finances as they wait for the budget to be unveiled in the fall, but economists say they should probably brace for a <\/p>\n

bigger deficit<\/p>\n

than has been projected. <\/p>\n

How much bigger? Quite a bit, according to BMO Capital Markets. <\/p>\n

\u201cSuffice it to say that both the Parliamentary Budget Officer\u2019s March baseline ($46.8 billion deficit) and the Liberal platform ($62.3 billion) are likely underestimating the size of the FY25\/26 shortfall,\u201d said Robert Kavcic, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets <\/p>\n

in a recent note. <\/p>\n

A lot has changed since Prime Minister <\/p>\n

Mark Carney<\/p>\n

won the election, and BMO now estimates the federal deficit could climb towards $80 billion or about 2.5 per cent of GDP. <\/p>\n

First there are the knowns. Measures in the Liberal platform to offer relief to Canadians are already coming into play, such as the July 1 personal income tax cut, cancellation of the <\/p>\n

capital gains inclusion rate hike<\/p>\n

and <\/p>\n

GST relief<\/p>\n

for some new home buyers. <\/p>\n

Then there are the unknowns. The sudden cancellation of Canada\u2019s <\/p>\n

digital services tax<\/p>\n

after U.S. President Donald Trump broke off trade talks will cost the government about $7 billion in lost revenue, BMO estimates. <\/p>\n

Defence is another \u201cmajor shift.\u201d The increase in defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP this fiscal year and 5 per cent by 2035 means $8 billion more in incremental spending in the 2025\/26 fiscal year, said Kavcic. <\/p>\n

The de-escalation of the trade war with the U.S. and possibility of a deal is good news and means the federal government can likely trim the $3 billion it had earmarked for direct support to those affected by tariffs. <\/p>\n

On the flip side, the $20 billion Ottawa put down as <\/p>\n

retaliatory tariff revenue<\/p>\n

will also likely fall short. <\/p>\n

\u201cGiven the pause in some measures, and a looming trade deal likely to scale back some others, that figure could come in $10-to-$15 billion lower,\u201d said Kavcic. <\/p>\n

During the election campaign, Carney said he would slow growth in government spending to about 2 per cent annually, down from 9 per cent under Justin Trudeau. And there are already signs the government is working on it. <\/p>\n

Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne reportedly sent a letter to cabinet members this week urging them to find ways to cut program spending by 7.5 per cent for the 2026-27 fiscal year, which begins next April. <\/p>\n

Kavcic said government program spending climbed steadily under Trudeau to about 16 per cent of GDP by 2024\/25. Before that, it was relatively stable at about 13 per cent of GDP. <\/p>\n

\u201cNow, it\u2019s unlikely we\u2019re going to see spending retrench back to those levels, as cuts will more likely be back-filled with updated policy priorities,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

But if an $80-billion deficit makes your eyes water, the economist offers some context that might help. <\/p>\n

\u201cWhile a wave of red ink is rolling over Canada\u2019s budget, it still pales in comparison to the tsunami south of the border,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s One Big Beautiful bill is set to raise the U.S. deficit above $2 trillion next year, more than 6 per cent of GDP. <\/p>\n

There is also reason to hope that the pro-growth policies behind Canada\u2019s deficit \u2014 tax relief and infrastructure spending \u2014 will boost the economy and have longer-term payoffs, he said. <\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/em> <\/p>\n

\n


\"\"<\/strong> <\/p>\n

\"<\/p>\n

Gold wins the \u201cstandout performer\u201d<\/p>\n

of the 21st century, returning more than 11 times its value from the end of 1999, says Deutsche Bank Research. That\u2019s compared to 6.8 times for the S&P 500. The yellow metal also had its strongest first half of the year since 1980. <\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

    \n
  • The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation will provide an update on rental market conditions in Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, and Halifax<\/li>\n
  • Today\u2019s Data:<\/strong> United States consumer credit, NFIB small business optimism<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \"\"<\/strong> <\/p>\n

    \"<\/p>\n

    <\/figure>\n
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    \"\"<\/strong> <\/p>\n

      \n
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    • How the trade war is turning into a tourism win for Canada <\/li>\n
    • Amazon and Walmart go head-to-head in online discount battle<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      \"\" <\/p>\n

      It\u2019s a tough time to be a 60\/40 investor. The model, once a reliable framework for conservative investors, has struggled to provide the downside protection it historically offered, writes investing pro Martin Pelletier. Bonds have failed to hedge equity risk and volatility has become more frequent and more emotionally charged. That\u2019s why goal-based investing works in uncertain times, says Pelletier. <\/p>\n

      Find out more <\/p>\n

      \n

      Send us your summer job search stories<\/h2>\n

      Recently, we published a feature on the <\/p>\n

      death of the summer job<\/p>\n

      as student unemployment reaches crisis levels. We want to hear directly from Canadians aged 15-24 about their summer job search. <\/p>\n

      Send us your story, in 50-100 words, and we\u2019ll publish the best submissions in an upcoming edition of the Financial Post. <\/p>\n

      You can submit your story by email to <\/p>\n

      fp_economy@postmedia.com<\/p>\n

      under the subject heading \u201cSummer job stories.\u201d Please include your name, your age, the city and province where you reside, and a phone number to reach you. <\/p>\n

      \n
      Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at\u00a0<\/span>wealth@postmedia.com<\/span>\u00a0with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we\u2019ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we\u2019ll keep your name out of it, of course).<\/span><\/div>\n
      \n

      McLister on mortgages<\/h2>\n

      Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s <\/p>\n

      Financial Post column <\/p>\n

      can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus check his <\/p>\n

      mortgage rate page<\/p>\n

      for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. <\/p>\n

      \n

      Financial Post on YouTube<\/h2>\n

      Visit the Financial Post\u2019s <\/p>\n

      YouTube channel<\/p>\n

      for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. <\/p>\n

      \n

      Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.<\/em> <\/p>\n

      Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at\u00a0<\/p>\n

      posthaste@postmedia.com<\/p>\n

      . <\/p>\n

      \n
        \n
      • Here are 5 Canadian cities where you can make less and still buy a home<\/li>\n
      • Ready for summer travel? Your checklist may have some holes<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

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        Posthaste: Canadians should brace for bigger federal budget deficit than they thought<\/a>
        \n
        2025-07-08 12:01:37<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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