{"id":61517,"date":"2025-07-03T12:01:50","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T12:01:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/07\/03\/posthaste-canada-home-prices-seen-falling-further-as-tariff-war-deepens-downturn\/"},"modified":"2025-07-03T12:01:50","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T12:01:50","slug":"posthaste-canada-home-prices-seen-falling-further-as-tariff-war-deepens-downturn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/07\/03\/posthaste-canada-home-prices-seen-falling-further-as-tariff-war-deepens-downturn\/","title":{"rendered":"Posthaste: Canada home prices seen falling further as tariff war deepens downturn"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<br \/><br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Why it&#039;s a &#039;smart&#039; time to buy a home\" width=\"1080\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SeTvlD-tZmA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><br \/>\n<\/iframe><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg\" title=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p> Canada\u2019s housing market<\/p>\n<p>                         showed signs of life in May when sales rose for the first time in about six months, leading some to hope the long-awaited turnaround had finally arrived. <\/p>\n<p> But some economists are warning this \u201cbreather\u201d will be short-lived and the housing downturn will continue through the year. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cUnless an immediate deal is reached to remove most <\/p>\n<p>                        U.S.-Canada tariffs<\/p>\n<p>                        , we expect the housing slump will extend through the end of 2025,\u201d wrote Tony Stillo, director of Canada economics for Oxford Economics and Michael Davenport, senior economist. <\/p>\n<p> The housing market remains weak, they argue. National sales in May, though up from the month before, were still about 16 per cent below the five-year average and the MLS benchmark price slid lower for the sixth month in a row, down 3.2 per cent year over year. <\/p>\n<p> The <\/p>\n<p>                        Bank of Canada<\/p>\n<p>                         delivered some serious borrowing relief to Canadians over the past year, cutting its benchmark interest rate from 5 to 2.75 per cent. But the expected rally in the housing market never materialized because U.S. President <\/p>\n<p>                        Donald Trump<\/p>\n<p>                         started a tariff war. <\/p>\n<p> Stillo and Davenport said Trump\u2019s trade assault threatens to deepen Canada\u2019s housing market downturn as buyers and sellers remain \u201cparalyzed\u201d by uncertainty. <\/p>\n<p> \u201cPoor affordability, weak confidence, and job losses from the recession now likely underway, on top of headwinds from a shrinking population, will continue to weigh on demand,\u201d they said. <\/p>\n<p> They expect home prices to fall a cumulative 8 to 10 per cent by the end of the year as distressed home sales rise, pushing up supply. <\/p>\n<p> Whether they are right or not remains to be seen, but June data from regional real estate boards, now starting to come out, doesn\u2019t look as upbeat as May. <\/p>\n<p> Yesterday Calgary, the first of the boards to report, said home sales dropped 16.5 per cent last month from the year before as new listings rose. The city\u2019s inventory reached 6,941 homes for sale, up 83.2 per cent from last year. <\/p>\n<p> Early data from digital realtor Wahi.com also points to a \u201cless-than-festive June\u201d for the Greater Toronto Area, said <\/p>\n<p>                        MortgageLogic.news strategist Robert McLister<\/p>\n<p>                        . <\/p>\n<p> Sales were down over 12 per cent from last year, and prices dropped 1.5 per cent from the month before. Total active listings were up almost 35 per cent from last year. <\/p>\n<p> Chances of more <\/p>\n<p>                        mortgage rate relief<\/p>\n<p>                         reviving the market are also dimming. <\/p>\n<p> Oxford Economics expects the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent for \u201cthe foreseeable future,\u201d while rising government bond yields push up fixed mortgage rates. <\/p>\n<p> It expects the five-year mortgage rate to rise from 5.1 per cent in the second quarter to 5.5 per cent by the end of the year. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em><strong>\u00a0Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/em> <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><br \/> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1758646\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/subhead_leading.png\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\" TD Economics\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"3880024\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/tourism-chart.jpg\" title=\" TD Economics\" \/><\/p>\n<p> When it comes to tourists in Canada, Americans top the charts. U.S. visitors accounted for four out of five non-resident trips in 2024, spending a record $15 billion, more than all other nations combined, says <\/p>\n<p>                        a report by TD Economics.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<p> Yet their numbers are down this year as trade tensions, economic uncertainty and a weak U.S. dollar keep more Americans away. U.S. resident car trips to Canada were down 8.4 per cent in May, the fourth month in a row of declines. <\/p>\n<p> TD Economics estimates that U.S. spending in Canada will drop 5 to 10 per cent this year, a loss of about $1 billion. <\/p>\n<p> International travellers from other countries are picking up some of the slack. Visits from the United Kingdom rose by 14 per cent and visits from Mexico were up by 22 per cent in April. In May travellers from China increased 11 per cent from the year before. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/subhead-1.jpg\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Alberta Premier Danielle Smith flips the first pancake ahead of the start of the Calgary Stampede<\/li>\n<li><strong>Today\u2019s Data:<\/strong> Canada international merchandise trade, United States jobs, trade balance, factory and durable goods orders<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080180\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_marketsam.jpeg\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\" Financial Post\" data-has-syndication-rights=\"1\" data-license-id=\"3880435\" data-portal-copyright=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/chart-0703-ph.jpg\" title=\" Financial Post\" \/><\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\"><\/figure>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080181\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_reads.jpeg\" width=\"838\" \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The digital services tax was another policy-driven tax debacle <\/li>\n<li>Canada\u2019s historic first cargo of LNG sets sail for buyers in Asia <\/li>\n<li>Amazon taps into Canadian patriotism<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2059284\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/subhead_personal_finance_2.png\" width=\"838\" \/> <\/p>\n<p> Is real estate really the best place to park your money? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister takes a hard look at the numbers and reaches some surprising conclusions. <\/p>\n<p>                        Read on <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Send us your summer job search stories<\/h2>\n<p> Recently, we published a feature on the <\/p>\n<p>                        death of the summer job<\/p>\n<p>                         as student unemployment reaches crisis levels. We want to hear directly from Canadians aged 15-24 about their summer job search. <\/p>\n<p> Send us your story, in 50-100 words, and we\u2019ll publish the best submissions in an upcoming edition of the Financial Post. <\/p>\n<p> You can submit your story by email to <\/p>\n<p>                        fp_economy@postmedia.com<\/p>\n<p>                         under the subject heading \u201cSummer job stories.\u201d Please include your name, your age, the city and province where you reside, and a phone number to reach you. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"x_elementToProof\"><span>Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at\u00a0<\/span>wealth@postmedia.com<span><\/span><span>\u00a0with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we\u2019ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we\u2019ll keep your name out of it, of course).<\/span><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>McLister on mortgages<\/h2>\n<p> Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s <\/p>\n<p>                        Financial Post column <\/p>\n<p>                        can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus check his <\/p>\n<p>                        mortgage rate page<\/p>\n<p>                         for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Financial Post on YouTube<\/h2>\n<p> Visit the Financial Post\u2019s <\/p>\n<p>                        YouTube channel<\/p>\n<p>                         for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <em>Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.<\/em> <\/p>\n<p> Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>                        posthaste@postmedia.com<\/p>\n<p>                        . <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li>Why more economists think the Bank of Canada is done cutting interest rates<\/li>\n<li>Canada is in for a rough couple of quarters, say economists<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p> <em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add\u00a0financialpost.com\u00a0to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/em> <\/p>\n<p><\/img><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<br \/>Posthaste: Canada home prices seen falling further as tariff war deepens downturn<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2025-07-03 12:01:50<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canada\u2019s housing market showed signs of life in May when sales rose for the first time in about six months, leading some to hope the long-awaited turnaround had finally arrived&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":61519,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-61517","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61517"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61517\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/61519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}