{"id":57525,"date":"2025-03-18T14:53:07","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T14:53:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/03\/18\/bank-of-canada-job-harder-on-inflation-numbers\/"},"modified":"2025-03-18T14:53:07","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T14:53:07","slug":"bank-of-canada-job-harder-on-inflation-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/03\/18\/bank-of-canada-job-harder-on-inflation-numbers\/","title":{"rendered":"Bank of Canada job harder on inflation numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/p>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">News<\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">Economy<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\">Markets and more economists calling are betting that policymakers will hold interest rates at April 16 decision<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<p><span class=\"published-date__since\">Published Mar 18, 2025<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">4 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta__bottom\">\n<div class=\"bookmark-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover\" data-aqa=\"popover\" data-click-to-appear=\"True\" data-container=\"\" data-container-offset=\"\" data-no-style=\"\" data-popover-component=\"\" data-position=\"top\" data-sticky=\"\" data-tail-offset=\"200\" data-tail-position=\"right\"><button class=\"popover__trigger bookmark-button\"><span class=\"save-article-button save-article-button--default\" title=\"Save article\" data-article-id=\"6739a93e-d3bd-4e8a-ab40-2936d700d28b\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\"\/><\/button><\/p>\n<div aria-describedby=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\" class=\"popover__content\" hidden=\"\" role=\"dialog\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__text\" id=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\">\n<div class=\"bookmark__popover__content\">\n<p>You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"popover__content__close\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\" title=\"Close\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\" class=\"icon--close\" height=\"12\" version=\"1.1\" width=\"12\"><polygon points=\"12 0.95 11.05 0 6 5.05 0.95 0 0 0.95 5.05 6 0 11.05 0.95 12 6 6.95 11.05 12 12 11.05 6.95 6\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-300312-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=-AVSZaoc7tI19YgPk1EUdA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-300312-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=vwhmgasygQgvRjjDg2Mf9w 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-300312-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=nYhqsQfWSh0BJX_FHpVc6w,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-300312-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=RNinjDBykZI-7tWPAO3WSw 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-300312-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=z02DOVF-N3w1IgtAtc3L1g,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-300312-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=SCt6VpEsiO3pPXUl-mu5cw 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-300312-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=6FzuJST0k3f7j36CzJEaBQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-300312-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=trQucrdKxOTXuaol1UWf0w 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-300312-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;h=216&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=7NgcmW7HKK1EYJadKQzJFw,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-300312-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;h=432&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=Cfv7EB12VS1k-cBSHqfqWw 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, left, and Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada.<\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by David Kawai\/Bloomberg<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">February\u2019s consumer price index report took economists by surprise as the rate of inflation accelerated on a year-over-year basis to 2.6 per cent in February, outpacing analyst estimates for a 2.2 per cent increase.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Statistics Canada said the end of the GST\/HST holiday in mid-February was the main reason for the pickup in inflation, which jumped from 1.9 per cent in January.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment494078204470867989307950492549120\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 2<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" 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src=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/18.2.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg\" width=\"280\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"intro-body__premium hidden\">\n<p>THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY<\/p>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O&#8217;Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.<\/li>\n<li>Daily content from Financial Times, the world&#8217;s leading global business publication.<\/li>\n<li>Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.<\/li>\n<li>Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__register hidden\">\n<p>SUBSCRIBE TO 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articles from across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month.<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__registration_only hidden\">\n<p>THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.<\/p>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Access articles from across Canada with one account<\/li>\n<li>Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"identity-screen m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-md-6 flex-justify-center flex-align-center\" aria-live=\"assertive\">\n<section class=\"sail\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine=\"\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine-component=\"\"\/>\n<div class=\"m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-sm-6 col-md-12 flex-align-justify-center\" data-auth-component=\"\" id=\"auth-screen-form\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form--active w-full flex-align-justify-center\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form identity-screen__content w-full\">\n<h2 class=\"blocker-title\">Sign In or Create an Account<\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><span class=\"identity-divider__text\">or<\/span><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"identity-footer identity-screen__content m-x-0 p-x-0 col-sm-6 col-md-12\"\/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Here\u2019s what economists think the new data means for the Bank of Canada and interest rates.<\/p>\n<h2>\u2018Upside surprise\u2019: Capital Economics<\/h2>\n<p>The \u201cupside surprise makes the Bank of Canada\u2019s job even harder,\u201d Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics Ltd., said in a note.<\/p>\n<p>He said the inflation numbers cast doubt on expectations that policymakers will cut interest rates for an eighth consecutive time at their next policy meeting on April 16.<\/p>\n<p>The CPI outstripped estimates, but, more importantly, the central bank\u2019s preferred measures of core inflation, which remove taxes, also rose last month, Brown said.<\/p>\n<p>CPI-trim and CPI-median increased to an annualized three-month average rate of 3.3 per cent, which is above the top end of the Bank of Canada\u2019s inflation target range of three per cent.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe upshot is that, despite the downside risks to the economic outlook from U.S. tariffs, we may need to revisit our view that the (Bank of Canada) will cut interest rates again as soon as next month,\u201d Brown said.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\" data-aqa=\"embed-image\"><picture class=\"embedded-image__ratio\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=rW0k1bWNNpLeT86_6Pvf1A,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=dIAVL4PPJhDMPJFiN51iWA 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=Tff9LzoLbRI8g__Lf1sb6w,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=0xnWW9t6a9sO1kwEm8fLLQ 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=hjroXBwFA9c6N_pdxdgNEw,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=mUZbS-RyTED4k2AS4Lm_zw 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=TvcMMwWZejGIbpLekVKtlw,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=h1mY-A2qcDFWmaTHFTZGEQ 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=MMVqePOALx6xn391TKdt_g,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=35q2UFGiR_xYGgkjKLyxXw 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Inflation chart\" class=\"embedded-image__image lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=aZSvninavi3oDjDDKeq3Vg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=aZSvninavi3oDjDDKeq3Vg,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;sig=qn8AG1mw59I9g0y_bu3iZg 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Inflation-February-2025.png?quality=5&amp;strip=all&amp;w=100&amp;sig=nZXiYji6Tk8hjhH0LdJv1A\" height=\"828\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1000\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/figure>\n<h2>Temporary pause: Desjardins<\/h2>\n<p>The Bank of Canada warned it had considered holding interest rates when it cut on March 12, despite the threat United States tariffs pose to the economy.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"js-widget-content article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--content-slot26 article-content__widget-group--newsletter-slot\">\n<section class=\"newsletter-widget__new-story-page fp-headlinenews background--primary-light-gradient\" aria-labelledby=\"FinancialPostTopStories5090360650927201295329797693505536\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-aqa=\"widget-newsletter\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_HeadlineNews\" data-widget=\"newsletter\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-new-story-page-template\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__header__new-story-page\">\n<div 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If you don&#8217;t see it, please check your junk folder.<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page newsletter__feedback--last\">The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page js-submit-error\" style=\"margin-top: 8px\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitErrorFP_HeadlineNews\">We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment8984641582813292107642455214522368\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group, said the latest inflation report gives policymakers plenty of reason to \u201ctemporarily\u201d pause rate cuts as inflation appears to be on the march again.<\/p>\n<p>He said the number of items in Statistics Canada\u2019s CPI that rose by more than three per cent annually jumped to the highest level since May 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, a core measure of services inflation that excludes shelter \u2014 an often-cited culprit for runaway inflation \u2014 also rose on a three-month annualized basis, to 3.5 per cent from 2.9 per cent in January.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWith price growth likely to accelerate in the months to come as a result of retaliatory tariffs and past currency depreciation, now seems like the right time for the Bank of Canada to take a hawkish detour, driving home the point that containing inflation remains the central bank\u2019s number one job,\u201d Mendes said in a note.<\/p>\n<h2>\u2018Difficult place\u2019: TD Bank<\/h2>\n<p>Tuesday\u2019s inflation report \u201cputs the (Bank of Canada) in a difficult place,\u201d Leslie Preston, managing director and senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said in a note, citing the increase in the headline inflation number as well as the rising trend in core inflation.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_4\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment2624927835405457269238033996054528\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 4<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>The dynamics are in place for that trend to continue, given that Canadians\u2019 expectations for inflation have risen, even as \u201cthe hit to demand from uncertainty and the tariffs themselves\u201d weighs on consumption, despite a \u201chighly uncertain\u201d tariff landscape,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>TD is forecasting elevated tariffs over the next six months, after which they will be gradually reduced.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn this world, we expect the Bank of Canada to provide some further cushion in the form of two more 25-basis-point rate cuts at its next two rate announcements,\u201d Preston said.<\/p>\n<p>Markets have now \u201cslightly\u201d cut the odds of another interest rate cut on April 16, \u201cbut we will know a lot more about the path of tariffs by the time the decision rolls around,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<h2>Rates on hold: Oxford Economics<\/h2>\n<p>Headline inflation rose above two per cent for the first time since July 2024, economists Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport at Oxford Economics Group Ltd. said in a note, adding that while the GST\/HST tax break muddied the CPI picture, \u201cthere are signs that price growth has picked up.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A measure of CPI that controls for the GST\/HST holiday jumped to 2.7 per cent year over year in March, and the three-month measure of core inflation minus food and energy has been climbing despite the temporary tax break, they said.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_5\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment4690741412875081147934431783157760\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 5<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-5\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"5\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-5\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>Stillo and Davenport highlighted various moving parts in the inflation outlook, including an end to the consumer carbon tax on April 1. They estimate that will lower CPI by 0.5 per cent in April. March will also be the first full month post the GST\/HST break, but inflation will also factor in retaliatory tariffs currently worth roughly $60 billion.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cStill, with headline CPI inflation now back above two per cent year over year and a U.S.-Canada trade war well underway, we expect the Bank of Canada will hold rates steady as it guards against upside risks to inflation from tariffs, supply chain issues, and rising inflation expectations,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>\u2022 Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com <\/em><\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\">\n<p>Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>Bank of Canada job harder on inflation numbers<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2025-03-18 14:53:07<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links News Economy Markets and more economists calling are betting that policymakers will hold interest rates at April 16 decision Published Mar 18, 2025 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 4 minute read&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":57526,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-57525","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57525"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57525\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/57526"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}