{"id":57474,"date":"2025-03-17T18:16:30","date_gmt":"2025-03-17T18:16:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/03\/17\/oecd-warns-bank-of-canada-may-need-to-hike-rate-in-tariff-war\/"},"modified":"2025-03-17T18:16:30","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T18:16:30","slug":"oecd-warns-bank-of-canada-may-need-to-hike-rate-in-tariff-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/03\/17\/oecd-warns-bank-of-canada-may-need-to-hike-rate-in-tariff-war\/","title":{"rendered":"OECD warns Bank of Canada may need to hike rate in tariff war"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/p>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">News<\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">Economy<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\">Growth would plunge and inflation would soar if tariffs threats fulfilled<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<p><span class=\"published-date__since\">Published Mar 17, 2025<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">3 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta__bottom\">\n<div class=\"bookmark-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover\" data-aqa=\"popover\" data-click-to-appear=\"True\" data-container=\"\" data-container-offset=\"\" data-no-style=\"\" data-popover-component=\"\" data-position=\"top\" data-sticky=\"\" data-tail-offset=\"200\" data-tail-position=\"right\"><button class=\"popover__trigger bookmark-button\"><span class=\"save-article-button save-article-button--default\" title=\"Save article\" data-article-id=\"6b5077a0-9fd5-4814-8a3e-960bfa82a037\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\"\/><\/button><\/p>\n<div aria-describedby=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\" class=\"popover__content\" hidden=\"\" role=\"dialog\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__text\" id=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\">\n<div class=\"bookmark__popover__content\">\n<p>You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"popover__content__close\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\" title=\"Close\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\" class=\"icon--close\" height=\"12\" version=\"1.1\" width=\"12\"><polygon points=\"12 0.95 11.05 0 6 5.05 0.95 0 0 0.95 5.05 6 0 11.05 0.95 12 6 6.95 11.05 12 12 11.05 6.95 6\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-0317-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=VQIAp_0cMhTmKTCBO7uZMA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-0317-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=XAmtPTGW3s3PLcdzI8bRow 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-0317-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=H0QpNvj8AWDFM_1ldx1MkA,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-0317-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=7p7zVvkGeupJ6Fbch0xCeQ 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-0317-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=Hy5p1tzA2SNlwSagT-r9ZQ,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-0317-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=7dVclqSGa3sweLt37At8yQ 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-0317-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=ADZD9R11NTwQNP2ROJ1AYQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-0317-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=9siGDcLGE0GZ2oPiZh6j8Q 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-0317-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;h=216&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=qLeOqHcNYIz5jEu7F65nEA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/bank-of-canada-0317-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;h=432&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=cvgC0Y0hRf_JqgK6nOvZig 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">Interest rates in Canada could rise and stay higher for longer if U.S. tariffs are imposed for the long term, said the OECD. <\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by Sean Kilpatrick\/The Canadian Press<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Canada\u2019s economy may have ended 2024 on a high note, but that could all be undone as world trade is upended by Donald Trump\u2019s tariff war, according to a new report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">The OECD cut its growth forecast for Canada by more than half Monday, and predicted knock-on effects on inflation and interest rates that could result in the cost of borrowing rising and staying higher for longer if the country ends up facing 25 per-cent tariffs from the United States and a tit-for-tat retaliation. The analysis also accounts for tariffs exchanged between China and the United States, as well as Washington\u2019s broad-based 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which include Canada.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment9262790578341330423873035720196096\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 2<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[6,6],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"6x6\" data-ad-loc=\"2\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[6,6],[320,50],[300,50],[300,250],[300,600]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-2\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:600px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues 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account.<\/li>\n<li>National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.<\/li>\n<li>Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__anonymous\">\n<p>REGISTER \/ SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES<\/p>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Access articles from across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month.<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__registration_only hidden\">\n<p>THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.<\/p>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Access articles from across Canada with one account<\/li>\n<li>Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"identity-screen m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-md-6 flex-justify-center flex-align-center\" aria-live=\"assertive\">\n<section class=\"sail\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine=\"\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine-component=\"\"\/>\n<div class=\"m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-sm-6 col-md-12 flex-align-justify-center\" data-auth-component=\"\" id=\"auth-screen-form\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form--active w-full flex-align-justify-center\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form identity-screen__content w-full\">\n<h2 class=\"blocker-title\">Sign In or Create an Account<\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><span class=\"identity-divider__text\">or<\/span><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"identity-footer identity-screen__content m-x-0 p-x-0 col-sm-6 col-md-12\"\/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a look at what the OECD had to say about Canada.<\/p>\n<h2>Growth prospects<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">The OECD now expects Canada\u2019s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.7 per cent this year and next, down 1.3 percentage points from its previous projection in December.<\/p>\n<p>The policy uncertainty created by tariffs will hit Canadian companies and households alike, forcing them to hold back spending on capital investment and durable goods, the report said.<\/p>\n<p>Canada\u2019s growth forecast was among the lower projections made by the OECD, which cut the outlook for most of its 38 nation members. Mexico, also in Trump\u2019s tariff sights, was the only country where the OECD forecast the economy would contract over the year \u2014 shrinking 1.3 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. economy, meanwhile, is expected to grow 2.2 per cent this year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous report, and 1.6 per cent next year, down 0.5 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Canada\u2019s growth prospects for this year and next dramatically improve if the U.S. extends tariff exemptions beyond April 2 for goods that are compliant with the Canada-United-States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"js-widget-content article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--content-slot20 article-content__widget-group--newsletter-slot\">\n<section class=\"newsletter-widget__new-story-page fp-headlinenews background--primary-light-gradient\" aria-labelledby=\"FinancialPostTopStories1208081879157892758560888850481152\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-aqa=\"widget-newsletter\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_HeadlineNews\" data-widget=\"newsletter\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-new-story-page-template\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__header__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__banner__new-story-page\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Top Stories\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/18.2.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Top Stories<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__body__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"js-replace-main__new-story-page\">\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__disclaimer__new-story-page text-size--tiny\">By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-submit-success\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitSuccessFP_HeadlineNews\">\n<p>Thanks for signing up!<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">A welcome email is on its way. If you don&#8217;t see it, please check your junk folder.<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page newsletter__feedback--last\">The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page js-submit-error\" style=\"margin-top: 8px\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitErrorFP_HeadlineNews\">We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment9190614476123128833382504976089088\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>In that case, Canada\u2019s growth is projected at 1.3 per cent in 2025 and 2026, and Mexico would avoid a recession as long as the two countries lower any retaliatory tariffs.<\/p>\n<h2>Inflation<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">If widespread tariffs take hold, Canada\u2019s headline inflation rate is expected to surge 1.1 percentage points in 2025 to 3.1 per cent before cooling somewhat to 2.9 per cent in 2026. January\u2019s inflation rate was 1.9 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>Core inflation is forecast to jump to a rate of 3.1 per cent in Canada in 2025, breaching the top end of the Bank of Canada\u2019s target range. <span style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif\"\/>The OECD\u2019s report also warns that one of the many dangers posed by the tariffs is that they will fuel inflation expectations.<\/p>\n<p>Central bank policymakers worry about rising inflation expectations because they can have real-world consequences on the spending decisions of businesses and households, as well as wage demands as workers seek higher pay to offset their expected rising costs of living.<\/p>\n<p>At the end of 2024, inflation expectations appeared to be falling in line with central banks\u2019 goals, but there are now signs they are rising again, at least in the U.S.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_4\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment5651347435571652555141085801742336\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 4<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>The OECD also warned that rising inflation expectations and slowing growth could \u201ctrigger a rapid repricing in financial markets and a further rise in market volatility.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Interest rates<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Widespread trade barriers and high tariffs would increase inflation globally, prompting interest rates to rise as well, the OECD report said.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">The Bank of Canada cut its rate last week by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent, but said it would be keeping a close eye on inflation when making future rate decisions.<\/p>\n<p>In the OECD\u2019s worst-case scenario for tariffs, it forecasts interest rates in Canada will rise by 1 to 1.25 per cent, higher than the 0.25 to 0.5 percentage point average it predicts for other major economies.<\/p>\n<p>It also said interest rates will need to stay higher for longer than previously expected as the cost of tariffs filters through to consumers.<\/p>\n<p>The OECD said policymakers can continue to cut interest rates, but only if they are dealing with a \u201clighter tariff scenario\u201d as slowing growth counterbalances rising prices for goods.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>\u2022 Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\">\n<p>Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>OECD warns Bank of Canada may need to hike rate in tariff war<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2025-03-17 18:16:30<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links News Economy Growth would plunge and inflation would soar if tariffs threats fulfilled Published Mar 17, 2025 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 3 minute read You 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