{"id":57324,"date":"2025-03-13T12:07:27","date_gmt":"2025-03-13T12:07:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/03\/13\/yellow-flags-signal-cracks-forming-in-donald-trumps-economy\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T12:07:27","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T12:07:27","slug":"yellow-flags-signal-cracks-forming-in-donald-trumps-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/03\/13\/yellow-flags-signal-cracks-forming-in-donald-trumps-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;Yellow flags&#8217; signal cracks forming in Donald Trump&#8217;s economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/p>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">News<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\">RBC says these worrying indicators are worth keeping an eye on<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<p><span class=\"published-date__since\">Published Mar 13, 2025<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">5 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta__bottom\">\n<div class=\"bookmark-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover\" data-aqa=\"popover\" data-click-to-appear=\"True\" data-container=\"\" data-container-offset=\"\" data-no-style=\"\" data-popover-component=\"\" data-position=\"top\" data-sticky=\"\" data-tail-offset=\"200\" data-tail-position=\"right\"><button class=\"popover__trigger bookmark-button\"><span class=\"save-article-button save-article-button--default\" title=\"Save article\" data-article-id=\"b3245d86-25fe-4e84-a53a-9da20f56ed73\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\"\/><\/button><\/p>\n<div aria-describedby=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\" class=\"popover__content\" hidden=\"\" role=\"dialog\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__text\" id=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\">\n<div class=\"bookmark__popover__content\">\n<p>You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"popover__content__close\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\" title=\"Close\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\" class=\"icon--close\" height=\"12\" version=\"1.1\" width=\"12\"><polygon points=\"12 0.95 11.05 0 6 5.05 0.95 0 0 0.95 5.05 6 0 11.05 0.95 12 6 6.95 11.05 12 12 11.05 6.95 6\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/maga-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=Q1m0_ZJ_ttWqn1HZt6O3JA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/maga-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=9Prny_ffy7_ixcX3bh_5UA 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/maga-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=4QZVsIt_MzMQtdL9fbjsOw,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/maga-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=U0cDxMmSTOd1bdmJsCC0Ag 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/maga-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=gcpWf86CtzVAMyijPUKWzg,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/maga-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=g5k7_6exKxWlCr_nSeA7pQ 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/maga-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=te1pISJEjgghk1qSwsKyZQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/maga-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=Fz_4nIEHBMMgfYwCpY67Vw 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/maga-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;h=216&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=OFXstpkwQzNGF4PcoR2tMQ,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/maga-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;h=432&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=aa86QSNmnI0XuF24zYAyuQ 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">A supporter of U.S. President Donald Trump holds a Make America Great Again Hat over his heart during a rally near White House.<\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by Zach Gibson\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\" data-aqa=\"embed-image\"><picture class=\"embedded-image__ratio\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=6lLqOxMPWrqdT6faIWDm6w,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=n-qKTtcvVFBRTZzMHFb2pA 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=BKFnr_P1Bw7Q4XWG_Up3GQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=GTjg1JD8glfowCEvrg7zTg 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=9kNx8K5TtrrlWGwYyxucxQ,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=tHeomvOxi6gManmKhWorsQ 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=nL0azXVy5fYIkpc6I50wAw,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=tktJVw7wfmOs0qSsEBIa5w 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=YxfTvFOWkhsACWs7r_8MkA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=TcF-YBUk1AWMm-zyN3Pu_g 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"embedded-image__image lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=hKuq-wskY5lKlkFQgM-QTg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=hKuq-wskY5lKlkFQgM-QTg,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;sig=tP-X7ZqT8GHw4xLHdd3KpA 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=5&amp;strip=all&amp;w=100&amp;sig=EcCPhKPRlZdph65uTZxLMA\" alt=\"\" height=\"320\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"760\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/figure>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Donald Trump has \u201cbig\u201d plans for the U.S. economy \u2014 a smaller public sector, overhauling global trade so that it benefits Americans and new tax policies that aim to spur growth.<\/p>\n<p>But as the president himself admitted recently, the challenge is getting there, \u201cThere\u2019ll be a little disturbance, but we\u2019re OK with that,\u201d Trump told Congress last week.<\/p>\n<p>What that disturbance develops into is the question, and over the past month the economists at Royal Bank of Canada have noticed several \u201cyellow flags\u201d popping up in the data.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment552546654508481176161255908442112\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 2<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" 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comments.<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month.<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__registration_only hidden\">\n<p>THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.<\/p>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Access articles from across Canada with one account<\/li>\n<li>Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"identity-screen m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-md-6 flex-justify-center flex-align-center\" aria-live=\"assertive\">\n<section class=\"sail\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine=\"\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine-component=\"\"\/>\n<div class=\"m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-sm-6 col-md-12 flex-align-justify-center\" data-auth-component=\"\" id=\"auth-screen-form\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form--active w-full flex-align-justify-center\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form identity-screen__content w-full\">\n<h2 class=\"blocker-title\">Sign In or Create an Account<\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><span class=\"identity-divider__text\">or<\/span><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"identity-footer identity-screen__content m-x-0 p-x-0 col-sm-6 col-md-12\"\/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>Here are \u201cthe cracks forming in the U.S. economy,\u201d RBC chief economist Frances Donald and senior economist Mike Reid say are worth keeping an eye on.<\/p>\n<h2>Sentiment is slumping<\/h2>\n<p>Consumer and business surveys are flashing growing signs \u201ceconomic discomfort,\u201d said the economists. The University of Michigan consumer confidence survey fell in January after rising for five months in a row and the Conference Board\u2019s study dropped in December and January after hitting a near record jump in October. The NFIB survey of small business reported that only 15 per cent of businesses were planning on creating new jobs.<\/p>\n<p>However, this is \u201csoft data\u201d and doesn\u2019t necessarily translate into a decline in the \u201chard data\u201d of consumer spending, they said. What RBC thinks is happening is that lower- and middle-income Americans are struggling with higher interest rates and inflation, while higher-income groups remain in better shape.<\/p>\n<p>The wealthier Americans, who account for a larger share of spending, are the ones to watch as far as the economy is concerned. \u201cA pullback among high-income consumers would merit a shift in our U.S. consumer outlook,\u201d said Donald and Reid.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"js-widget-content article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--content-slot20 article-content__widget-group--newsletter-slot\">\n<section class=\"newsletter-widget__new-story-page fp-execsummary background--primary-light-gradient\" aria-labelledby=\"FinancialPostPosthaste5177288638263072867176354230042624\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-aqa=\"widget-newsletter\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_ExecSummary\" data-widget=\"newsletter\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-new-story-page-template\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__header__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__banner__new-story-page\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Posthaste\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/18.2.1\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-posthaste.svg\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Posthaste<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">Breaking business news, incisive views, must-reads and market signals. Weekdays by 9 a.m.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__body__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"js-replace-main__new-story-page\">\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__disclaimer__new-story-page text-size--tiny\">By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-submit-success\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitSuccessFP_ExecSummary\">\n<p>Thanks for signing up!<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">A welcome email is on its way. If you don&#8217;t see it, please check your junk folder.<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page newsletter__feedback--last\">The next issue of Posthaste will soon be in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page js-submit-error\" style=\"margin-top: 8px\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitErrorFP_ExecSummary\">We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment120163401526143240582245887508480\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>A stock market meltdown could trigger such a pullback, and there have been plenty of signs for worry there as tariff threats hike volatility. The American Association of Individual Investors survey recently showed that bullish sentiment had declined to levels seen only in major stock market drawdowns.<\/p>\n<p>A plunging market would create a \u201cnegative wealth effect\u201d for higher-income earners that leads to corporate earnings being revised lower, stock portfolios losing value and wealthier consumers cutting back on spending, they said.<\/p>\n<h2>Inflation expectations are rising<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Inflation was already a concern in the United States, but now expectations are rising, reflected in both consumer and business surveys.<\/p>\n<p>The danger is this could change behaviour both in the economy and stock market, they said.<\/p>\n<h2>Government job cuts are showing up in data<\/h2>\n<p>The federal government cut 10,000 jobs in February and those numbers are likely to get higher. Planned job cuts measured by Challenger jumped 103 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>The concern is that government cuts will filter through to the broader economy by cancelling contracts and future funding. Some universities, for example, recently announced they are freezing hiring.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_4\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment7991091791603391339282424458641408\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 4<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<h2>Consumer debt is swelling<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">American consumers piled on US$56 billion in non-real-estate debt in December and January and most of it was on credit cards, said the economists. That means they are now spending 2.5 per cent of their monthly disposable income on non-mortgage interest payments, a share that could rise as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates high and costly credit debt mounts. The growing debt burden is already showing up in \u201chard data\u201d with real personal spending falling by more than 5 per cent from the year before in January, said the economists.<\/p>\n<p>At this point RBC still expects the U.S. economy to pull off a \u201csoft landing\u201d but will watch these \u201cyellow flags\u201d closely in the months to come.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe surmise it is uncertainty itself weighing on much of these indicators \u2014 an uncertainty that could reverse or change \u2014 but also risks bleeding into the real economy in more tangible ways if left unchecked,\u201d said Donald and Reid.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><strong>\u00a0Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><strong><br \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1758646\" alt=\"\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/subhead_leading.png\" width=\"838\"\/><\/strong><\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\" data-aqa=\"embed-image\"><picture class=\"embedded-image__ratio\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=HU-uUud9HnER2gKTcmrFgA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=IcBa26NlNiGGdz6vti89nw 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=CLXvhgltU2uqxTOgDchBTQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=81RETN8KZaPw3NLMPRXe3g 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=xj95Avl1XQsQcfhoHLCYRg,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=h5ahr_EmfNiKW1RiPtjoUQ 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=z9sPP-ggP2fhQH1scSQt5Q,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=-rKsgrU6CJUV7G7WHLz3eQ 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=siLsECI_7hBesq7aUdjpbw,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=i7R2QKgWJehr8GwiqBYzRg 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Bank of Canada March 12 chart\" class=\"embedded-image__image lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=rVGVCpOJ38qII3mvFAfC-Q\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=rVGVCpOJ38qII3mvFAfC-Q,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;sig=vol8COESwoGelk5vbQmHrg 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Bank-of-Canada-March-12.png?quality=5&amp;strip=all&amp;w=100&amp;sig=WrtJUP4kHR4oAASLI8logw\" height=\"798\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1000\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/figure>\n<p>Where the Bank of Canada interest rate goes next is uncertain, because no one knows what Trump and his tariffs will do next, but economists say it\u2019s likely to be lower than the market expects.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_5\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment1675567428464065345464213656567808\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 5<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-5\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"5\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-5\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Canada\u2019s central bank cut its key rate to 2.75 per cent Wednesday, warning the economic impact of a prolonged trade war with the United States could be severe.<\/p>\n<p>If tariffs take hold, the bank may have to balance rising inflation with a slowing economy, and many economists think it will come down on the side of weak growth.<\/p>\n<p>Bank of Montreal economists expect three more cuts bringing the rate to 2 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur core assumption is that Canada will be facing some serious tariffs for an extended period of time and that the growth dampening aspects of the trade war will ultimately outweigh the upside inflationary impact, keeping the Bank in easing mode,\u201d wrote Douglas Porter, chief economist for BMO Capital Markets.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1758643\" alt=\"\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/subhead_breaking.png\" width=\"838\"\/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Today\u2019s Data:<\/strong> Canada building permits, U.S. producer price index<\/li>\n<li><strong>Earnings:<\/strong> Transat AT Inc., Empire Co. Ltd.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080180\" alt=\"\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_marketsam.jpeg\" width=\"838\"\/><\/strong><\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\"\/>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\" data-aqa=\"embed-image\"><picture class=\"embedded-image__ratio\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=kNSDfcXzqQZADv4OVd1apA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=uN4iqavBG1qza2e8iJdIog 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=Gfq9CUhimY-i0AKVTL3wQA,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=pJDNnDlP7Vd8Dzsu_R1Lsg 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=xcER6aRF0vSonsphaeTs4Q,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=z6c8cc9Zwl5ceKESJYbhdw 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=zlYfiARTIOlaCP-6zESGGw,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=NVQdWNz_fs6FfGCa6Ix3Zw 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=Z7Jjcg7PLanfA4EgAivong,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=BI8RyTepgSjP7jRV1LPxnw 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"market chart\" class=\"embedded-image__image lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=_BQb2JZkqlXDiA0OxVCIXQ\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=_BQb2JZkqlXDiA0OxVCIXQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;sig=ZD2IwoKFaUIB288lRXQJXw 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/chart-0313-ph.jpg?quality=5&amp;strip=all&amp;w=100&amp;sig=uWSvAnlQaZol0ZeYSf8XcA\" height=\"414\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1000\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\"> Financial Post<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080181\" alt=\"\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_reads.jpeg\" width=\"838\"\/><\/strong><\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2059284\" alt=\"\" height=\"86\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/subhead_personal_finance_2.png\" width=\"629\"\/><\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">British Columbia-based couple Gloria, 49, and Rob, 51, are focused on an early retirement and a career-change for Gloria. But are the two goals compatible? Family Finance walks them through the scenarios and the key questions they need to address. Read more<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_6\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment2981381906459168083039480398741504\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 6<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-6\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"6\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-6\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p data-async=\"\">Calling Canadian families with younger kids or teens: Whether it\u2019s budgeting, spending, investing, paying off debt, or just paying the bills, does your family have any financial resolutions for the coming year? Let us know at wealth@postmedia.com.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h2>McLister on mortgages<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h2>Financial Post on YouTube<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Visit the Financial Post\u2019s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven, with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at\u00a0posthaste@postmedia.com.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel8429986480370542861407605137342464\" class=\"more-topic\" data-aqa=\"embed-more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\">\n<p>Recommended from Editorial<\/p>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/><\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" businesses=\"\" already=\"\" feel=\"\" the=\"\" tariff=\"\" pinch=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Canadian products are displayed at a grocery store in Toronto. \" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0312-bc-shop.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=Ec8JIYCn9cfZ2dvVzpd5Gw\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0312-bc-shop.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=5&amp;sig=ggypilMF6SgKeOwQrC11PA\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0312-bc-shop.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=Ec8JIYCn9cfZ2dvVzpd5Gw, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0312-bc-shop.jpg?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=yTfucRySvL0le1k-xgEQSA 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0312-bc-shop.jpg?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=YvrqFfGTVOk_tmy4Vwi99w 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Small businesses already feel the tariff pinch<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" have=\"\" canadians=\"\" changing=\"\" spending=\"\" habits=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Tariffs are not the only concern. Forty per cent of Canadians said the cost of living was a top worry. \" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0305-bc-shopping-.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=0M6wi2Cw5RfqWAORnDS-IA\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0305-bc-shopping-.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=5&amp;sig=hmhDzqW2pvUnC64H57HFtg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0305-bc-shopping-.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=0M6wi2Cw5RfqWAORnDS-IA, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0305-bc-shopping-.jpg?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=m8VGO4L8UYee4ZjeMhm-nQ 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0305-bc-shopping-.jpg?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=NdvXzFUyB43WrrYgHz5TJQ 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Tariffs have Canadians changing spending habits<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/><\/section>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add\u00a0financialpost.com\u00a0to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\">\n<p>Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>&#8216;Yellow flags&#8217; signal cracks forming in Donald Trump&#8217;s economy<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2025-03-13 12:07:27<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links News RBC says these worrying indicators are worth keeping an eye on Published Mar 13, 2025 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 5 minute read You can save this article by registering&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":57325,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57324","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57324"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57324\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/57325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57324"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57324"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57324"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}