{"id":56596,"date":"2025-02-24T13:00:11","date_gmt":"2025-02-24T13:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/02\/24\/dont-count-bank-of-canada-rate-cut-in-march-out-just-yet\/"},"modified":"2025-02-24T13:00:11","modified_gmt":"2025-02-24T13:00:11","slug":"dont-count-bank-of-canada-rate-cut-in-march-out-just-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/02\/24\/dont-count-bank-of-canada-rate-cut-in-march-out-just-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"Don&#8217;t count Bank of Canada rate cut in March out just yet"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/p>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">News<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\">Market odds of a cut have dropped to 25%, but this economist makes a contrarian case<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<p><span class=\"published-date__since\">Published Feb 24, 2025<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"updated-date__since\">Last updated 18\u00a0minutes ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">5 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta__bottom\">\n<div class=\"bookmark-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover\" data-aqa=\"popover\" data-click-to-appear=\"True\" data-container=\"\" data-container-offset=\"\" data-no-style=\"\" data-popover-component=\"\" data-position=\"top\" data-sticky=\"\" data-tail-offset=\"200\" data-tail-position=\"right\"><button class=\"popover__trigger bookmark-button\"><span class=\"save-article-button save-article-button--default\" title=\"Save article\" data-article-id=\"d3934090-aecc-4c04-b65b-1a28756d56d4\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\"\/><\/button><\/p>\n<div aria-describedby=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\" class=\"popover__content\" hidden=\"\" role=\"dialog\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__text\" id=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\">\n<div class=\"bookmark__popover__content\">\n<p>You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"popover__content__close\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\" title=\"Close\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\" class=\"icon--close\" height=\"12\" version=\"1.1\" width=\"12\"><polygon points=\"12 0.95 11.05 0 6 5.05 0.95 0 0 0.95 5.05 6 0 11.05 0.95 12 6 6.95 11.05 12 12 11.05 6.95 6\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/bank-of-canada-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=E1KuLiIvaKxlHRweE32l2g,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/bank-of-canada-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=B43ponXO-lqJh-1gS3diIQ 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/bank-of-canada-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=HglxVgSrGRr9cPENDIz7mQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/bank-of-canada-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=2iUHhHjynmuMqU0KHzmftQ 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/bank-of-canada-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=eEYvRkwQMsvoSX5xaWyAQw,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/bank-of-canada-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=LYY8xk7a4e_yEXeq7Cqrmg 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/bank-of-canada-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=f-U-QMprBCJ0oi8Fb3jWlQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/bank-of-canada-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=Hf6jknR3PzJLbaYDpv6NAQ 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/bank-of-canada-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;h=216&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=QpKAISoWewGQiiQVEnI7xA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/bank-of-canada-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;h=432&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=EXHSbNNl3VWcXJK8L_2t6A 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem and Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor. The central makes its next decision on March 12. <\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by David Kawai\/Bloomberg<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\" data-aqa=\"embed-image\"><picture class=\"embedded-image__ratio\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=6lLqOxMPWrqdT6faIWDm6w,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=n-qKTtcvVFBRTZzMHFb2pA 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=BKFnr_P1Bw7Q4XWG_Up3GQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=GTjg1JD8glfowCEvrg7zTg 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=9kNx8K5TtrrlWGwYyxucxQ,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=tHeomvOxi6gManmKhWorsQ 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=nL0azXVy5fYIkpc6I50wAw,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=tktJVw7wfmOs0qSsEBIa5w 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=YxfTvFOWkhsACWs7r_8MkA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=TcF-YBUk1AWMm-zyN3Pu_g 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"embedded-image__image lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=hKuq-wskY5lKlkFQgM-QTg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=hKuq-wskY5lKlkFQgM-QTg,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;sig=tP-X7ZqT8GHw4xLHdd3KpA 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/fp-posthaste-LOGO-01132023.jpg?quality=5&amp;strip=all&amp;w=100&amp;sig=EcCPhKPRlZdph65uTZxLMA\" alt=\"\" height=\"320\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"760\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/figure>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">The Bank of Canada faces an especially tough decision when the Governing Council meets on March 12.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Not only are U.S. President Donald Trump\u2018s tariff threats hanging over the economy, but recent data have suggested that the economy \u2014 and inflation \u2014 are picking up speed.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">After a stronger than expected consumer price index reading for January, Canada\u2019s unemployment rate dropped for the second month in a row when job growth tripled expectations.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section 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flex-align-center\" aria-live=\"assertive\">\n<section class=\"sail\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine=\"\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine-component=\"\"\/>\n<div class=\"m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-sm-6 col-md-12 flex-align-justify-center\" data-auth-component=\"\" id=\"auth-screen-form\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form--active w-full flex-align-justify-center\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form identity-screen__content w-full\">\n<h2 class=\"blocker-title\">Sign In or Create an Account<\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><span class=\"identity-divider__text\">or<\/span><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"identity-footer identity-screen__content m-x-0 p-x-0 col-sm-6 col-md-12\"\/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>Three weeks ago markets had fully priced in a 25-basis-point cut for March 12, but since then the odds have shrunk to 25 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>Not all economists, however, agree with the market\u2019s assessment.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNaturally, these developments leave forecasts for a 25 bp cut next month on shakier footing but there are still some compelling reasons to expect a cut,\u201d said National Bank of Canada economist Taylor Schleich in a report entitled \u201cAn increasingly contrarian take \u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Schleich points to the Bank of Canada\u2019s last monetary policy report just three weeks ago, when it said that there were no signs that inflationary pressures were broad-based and even suggested that its preferred indicators were sending a false signal.<\/p>\n<p>The bank also indicated in that report that the jobs market remained soft and members would have to see jobs gains outpacing labour force growth for a longer period to be convinced it was on solid footing.<\/p>\n<p>Schleich has his doubts that January\u2019s 76,000 job gains will change the bank\u2019s mind, when other indicators are showing a different picture.<\/p>\n<p>Hiring intentions are still below historical averages, the job vacancy rate is at a seven-year low and the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours is signalling the opposite of what the Labour Force Survey suggests, he said.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"js-widget-content article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--content-slot24 article-content__widget-group--newsletter-slot\">\n<section class=\"newsletter-widget__new-story-page fp-execsummary background--primary-light-gradient\" aria-labelledby=\"FinancialPostPosthaste529515923114483038685859613245440\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-aqa=\"widget-newsletter\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_ExecSummary\" data-widget=\"newsletter\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-new-story-page-template\">\n<div 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Weekdays by 9 a.m.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__body__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"js-replace-main__new-story-page\">\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__disclaimer__new-story-page text-size--tiny\">By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-submit-success\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitSuccessFP_ExecSummary\">\n<p>Thanks for signing up!<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">A welcome email is on its way. If you don&#8217;t see it, please check your junk folder.<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page newsletter__feedback--last\">The next issue of Posthaste will soon be in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page js-submit-error\" style=\"margin-top: 8px\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitErrorFP_ExecSummary\">We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment9415734142475761498836636220260352\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTo be clear, we don\u2019t think recent inflation\/jobs data strengthen the case to cut but we\u2019d argue they aren\u2019t as much of a barrier as markets are implying,\u201d said Schleich.<\/p>\n<p>Economic slack remains in Canada, and the geopolitical uncertainty now circling the globe could widen that gap, he said.<\/p>\n<p>Whether Trump\u2019s tariff threats become reality remains to be seen, but the threats themselves are already having an effect, and\u00a0according to a Bloomberg survey, economists are trimming their growth forecasts because of it.<\/p>\n<p>They now see the economy growing by 1.6 per cent in 2025, down from a forecast of 1.8 per cent in last month\u2019s survey. The forecast for growth for 2026 is now 1.7 per cent, down from 1.9 per cent.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">The Bank of Canada\u2019s own Business Outlook Survey found some companies are holding back on investment because of the trade uncertainty, said Schleich, and a survey by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business found that a fifth of firms were cancelling or delaying plans to expand.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">The uncertainty is also weighing on consumers, he said. Last week the Canadian Real Estate Association said a potential trade war with the U.S. was likely the reason home sales slumped in the last week of January.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_4\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment9283972544911427888416041675522048\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 4<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe timing of that change in demand leaves little doubt as to the cause \u2014 uncertainty around tariffs,\u201d said CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart.<\/p>\n<p>All of this builds a case for an \u201cinsurance cut\u201d from the Bank of Canada which would cushion the blow from tariff uncertainty or tariffs themselves, said Schleich.<\/p>\n<p>The day the Bank of Canada makes its decision Trump\u2019s tariffs on steel and aluminum are due to go into effect and by then there should be some clarity on his border-related tariffs (25-per-cent on all goods from Canada and Mexico).<\/p>\n<p>Schleich said if more evidence emerges that economic growth and inflation are accelerating the central bank will have to change its tone, \u201cbut for now, the BoC leans dovish, likely to err on the side of accommodation under uncertainty,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re not convinced recent data have completely upended that, especially since uncertainty may snuff out any nascent economic recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><strong>\u00a0Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><strong><br \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1758646\" alt=\"\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/subhead_leading.png\" width=\"838\"\/><\/strong><\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\" data-aqa=\"embed-image\"><picture class=\"embedded-image__ratio\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=KW02PfmDDF_iOEh1zdJKLQ,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=CTSf5exPBx9MvYuRpAh0Pw 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=Mk_aqxK1QmSmV-5rCF_M-A,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=p15hq0mDJeAUw3CKs4JO9g 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=JfPw6bi4W89ObUPslGbxoA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=z-lA3KZGyuGpTNQvvOohjg 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=cjxv7t8HMISRZ2vjfpTlRw,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=80uWlF5MYI5ZIHnmNJZEUA 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=p3m5331UCkkoLLD9tKf3eQ,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=SQdi3Ba4mcJmUlW2QGxTRQ 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"trade chart\" class=\"embedded-image__image lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=AdkTcTFjBsUgutmmbECowg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=AdkTcTFjBsUgutmmbECowg,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;sig=0eVtPlke2N1ArAHIMMryRQ 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/trade-chart-0223.jpg?quality=5&amp;strip=all&amp;w=100&amp;sig=xyZwp8cefksXpaacWV7SfA\" height=\"717\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1000\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\"> National Bank of Canada<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As Trump studies the United States\u2019 trade deficit with other nations, economists in Canada hope that this country will be revealed as a vital partner to the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_5\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment6754550372533760331194178077720576\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 5<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-5\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"5\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-5\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>National Bank of Canada points out that 66 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S. are actually intermediate inputs in American production, with only 34 per cent of imported goods from Canada intended for final consumption, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. As today\u2019s chart shows that is far more the 45 per cent average for other U.S. trading partners.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRather than taking market share to win the favour of American consumers, Canadian companies are therefore partners to American companies that produce locally,\u201d said economists Matthieu Arseneau and St\u00e9fane Marion.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere is a good chance that these firms are already making this point to the American president, who would benefit from recognizing the special nature of his country\u2019s relationship with Canada.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1758643\" alt=\"\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/subhead_breaking.png\" width=\"838\"\/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bank of Canada deputy governor Toni Gravelle will speak at the Bank of England research conference in London on managing the central bank\u2019s balance sheet during quantitative tightening<\/li>\n<li>Canadian taxpayers can start filing 2024 returns online<\/li>\n<li><strong>Earnings:<\/strong> CI Financial Corp., GFL Environmental Inc., Spin Master Corp., Domino\u2019s Pizza Inc.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_6\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment8880490127338743854700219798126592\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 6<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-6\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"6\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-6\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080180\" alt=\"\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_marketsam.jpeg\" width=\"838\"\/><\/strong><\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\"\/>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\" data-aqa=\"embed-image\"><picture class=\"embedded-image__ratio\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=Lgi6Zh7O_tVKg-QAt1lpvQ,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=yHml8yL1ErJpa_PK3Q6pnw 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=YBXQ7bjE8L4S4SFybk0AJQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=N-G7sOtYxMpflTAuCscujA 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=PlJbY95MNULPH2aeRo_3mg,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=B0zU-1vze9_OPoGMoVTXEA 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=GcHs7PzLqPmkv3xUC1QeLw,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=M9cnMHWeltf2j73XAphPxg 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=VlW9nhm4kiNztknVOvTatA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=VsnhmO0Z13Ox0ufRz1pE5w 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"market chart\" class=\"embedded-image__image lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=4DI9aVjex4v1XhVORFUSRw\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=4DI9aVjex4v1XhVORFUSRw,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;sig=gwA6ViCjR5Ub-tEOBTs2WQ 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/chart-0224-ph.jpg?quality=5&amp;strip=all&amp;w=100&amp;sig=LUX04oStTV-Ulxb4CSZcxg\" height=\"408\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1000\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\"> Financial Post<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3080181\" alt=\"\" height=\"114\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/subhead_reads.jpeg\" width=\"838\"\/><\/strong><\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2059284\" alt=\"\" height=\"86\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/subhead_personal_finance_2.png\" width=\"629\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Young people in Canada are underusing tax-free savings accounts (TFSAs), even though more than half of the nation\u2019s adult population (17.8 million people) has one, according to the latest numbers from Statistics Canada \u2014 and it likely comes down to confusion.<\/p>\n<p>Tara Lalehparvar is co-chief executive officer of Vancouver-based Skyward Financial, a financial literacy and advisory practice geared toward generation Z and younger millennial investors, and she hears a lot of TFSA misinformation from clients, she said.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Find out more about how TFSAs can contribute to a long-term savings strategy.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p data-async=\"\">Calling Canadian families with younger kids or teens: Whether it\u2019s budgeting, spending, investing, paying off debt, or just paying the bills, does your family have any financial resolutions for the coming year? Let us know at wealth@postmedia.com.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_7\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment6462314862040499565174341698060288\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 7<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-7\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"7\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-7\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h2>McLister on mortgages<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister\u2019s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won\u2019t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada\u2019s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h2>Financial Post on YouTube<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Visit the Financial Post\u2019s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada\u2019s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>Today\u2019s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven, with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at\u00a0posthaste@postmedia.com.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel9462835810349191733394682494844928\" class=\"more-topic\" data-aqa=\"embed-more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\">\n<p>Recommended from Editorial<\/p>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/><\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" canadian=\"\" dollar=\"\" fuels=\"\" made-in-canada=\"\" backlash=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"The Canadian dollar has dropped since Donald Trump came to power. \" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/canadian-dollar-gs0220.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=HDLCFfhou7Ic9FdfQwWtFQ\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/canadian-dollar-gs0220.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=5&amp;sig=f8x_qY9jK4wYWF0wAtNJaA\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/canadian-dollar-gs0220.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=HDLCFfhou7Ic9FdfQwWtFQ, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/canadian-dollar-gs0220.jpg?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=RqKsU6bHNWA40yOCdIbh0Q 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/canadian-dollar-gs0220.jpg?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=lRS3SV00OdrRcHKtcUtunw 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Weaker Canadian dollar fuels made-in-Canada backlash<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" many=\"\" skipped=\"\" vacations=\"\" does=\"\" it=\"\" take=\"\" for=\"\" a=\"\" down=\"\" payment=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"It could take more than a decade of skipping vacations to afford a down payment in many parts of the country. \" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0219-bc-beach.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=rLW_0e6RHOit9U7TZjG4Ig\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0219-bc-beach.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=5&amp;sig=gtBTkNCV7c2B-W-_JGE5wA\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0219-bc-beach.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=rLW_0e6RHOit9U7TZjG4Ig, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0219-bc-beach.jpg?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=FLSmkbxXzvff0G44HggNHQ 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0219-bc-beach.jpg?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=2WEPu0TPas4suGRlBG8FWA 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">How many skipped vacations does it take for a down payment?<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/><\/section>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add\u00a0financialpost.com\u00a0to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here<\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\">\n<p>Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>Don&#8217;t count Bank of Canada rate cut in March out just yet<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2025-02-24 13:00:11<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links News Market odds of a cut have dropped to 25%, but this economist makes a contrarian case Published Feb 24, 2025 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Last updated 18\u00a0minutes ago \u00a0\u2022\u00a0&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":56597,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56596"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56596\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/56597"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}