{"id":56188,"date":"2025-02-12T18:46:11","date_gmt":"2025-02-12T18:46:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/02\/12\/fed-rate-hike-risk-rises-on-hotter-inflation\/"},"modified":"2025-02-12T18:46:11","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T18:46:11","slug":"fed-rate-hike-risk-rises-on-hotter-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/02\/12\/fed-rate-hike-risk-rises-on-hotter-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed rate hike risk rises on hotter inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/p>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">News<\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">Economy<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\">Here&#8217;s what economists are saying about the latest CPI numbers stateside<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<p><span class=\"published-date__since\">Published Feb 12, 2025<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"updated-date__since\">Last updated 14\u00a0hours ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">4 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta__bottom\">\n<div class=\"bookmark-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover\" data-aqa=\"popover\" data-click-to-appear=\"True\" data-container=\"\" data-container-offset=\"\" data-no-style=\"\" data-popover-component=\"\" data-position=\"top\" data-sticky=\"\" data-tail-offset=\"200\" data-tail-position=\"right\"><button class=\"popover__trigger bookmark-button\"><span class=\"save-article-button save-article-button--default\" title=\"Save article\" data-article-id=\"92f8f83a-4499-4828-9fd4-aebc1b3728cd\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\"\/><\/button><\/p>\n<div aria-describedby=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\" class=\"popover__content\" hidden=\"\" role=\"dialog\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__text\" id=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\">\n<div class=\"bookmark__popover__content\">\n<p>You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"popover__content__close\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\" title=\"Close\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\" class=\"icon--close\" height=\"12\" version=\"1.1\" width=\"12\"><polygon points=\"12 0.95 11.05 0 6 5.05 0.95 0 0 0.95 5.05 6 0 11.05 0.95 12 6 6.95 11.05 12 12 11.05 6.95 6\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/inflation-0212-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=iJisFUHFz1I-m3Hqr3ab8w,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/inflation-0212-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=xA8oV2yS5NB8XP4ZBHUVnQ 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/inflation-0212-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=AfRINW7X1Ismb_2T-3IwQg,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/inflation-0212-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=TWLdcjfYa8-S6hKRE3F6Mw 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/inflation-0212-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=33bWha2dZrPsREl2hR0f8A,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/inflation-0212-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=lsKfFP-Ysj6JeOP1QzwS4w 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/inflation-0212-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=5RVjRxs4Lgs3c-Kf1xoLUQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/inflation-0212-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=jwxgZumby7Yq7IEkqYDvZw 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/inflation-0212-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;h=216&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=TodOckjwfBxVbSg3UAunzQ,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/inflation-0212-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;h=432&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=02pO_Kc8GjLWR5MygFA5AA 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">Headline inflation increased three per cent year over year in January, beating forecasts. <\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by The Associated Press<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Inflation in the United States appears to be heading in the wrong direction, which has some economists worried that the U.S. Federal Reserve could end up hiking interest rates.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>Headline inflation increased three per cent year over year in January, according to the U.S. Labor Bureau\u2019s consumer price index (CPI), which was higher than analysts\u2019 forecast of 2.9 per cent.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment4361116629873383904245519923281920\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 2<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[6,6],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"6x6\" data-ad-loc=\"2\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[6,6],[320,50],[300,50],[300,250],[300,600]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-2\" 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leading global business publication.<\/li>\n<li>Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.<\/li>\n<li>Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__anonymous\">\n<p>REGISTER \/ SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES<\/p>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Access articles from across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month.<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__registration_only hidden\">\n<p>THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.<\/p>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Access articles from across Canada with one account<\/li>\n<li>Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"identity-screen m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-md-6 flex-justify-center flex-align-center\" aria-live=\"assertive\">\n<section class=\"sail\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine=\"\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine-component=\"\"\/>\n<div class=\"m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-sm-6 col-md-12 flex-align-justify-center\" data-auth-component=\"\" id=\"auth-screen-form\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form--active w-full flex-align-justify-center\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form identity-screen__content w-full\">\n<h2 class=\"blocker-title\">Sign In or Create an Account<\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><span class=\"identity-divider__text\">or<\/span><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"identity-footer identity-screen__content m-x-0 p-x-0 col-sm-6 col-md-12\"\/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>It was the fourth headline increase after the CPI hit a post-pandemic low of 2.4 per cent in September.<\/p>\n<p>Markets cut their rate-cut bets in half to just one by the Fed in 2025, following the release of the hotter-than-expected data.<\/p>\n<p>Some economists said the overheated numbers were due to seasonal effects since many businesses implement price increases at the start of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Others say the numbers point to an overall trend of rising costs.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">That will worry Americans, but it should also bother Canadians because higher U.S. interest rates could continue to push the Canadian dollar lower against its U.S. counterpart. U.S. interest rates are used to set borrowing costs for mortgages in Canada.<\/p>\n<p>Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group, said that persistently higher inflation in the U.S. could end up leaching into Canada given the two economies\u2019 high level of integration.<\/p>\n<p>And that\u2019s not all that could bedevil Canada.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cStronger price pressures stateside could also be bad news for Canada if the Fed isn\u2019t able to lower rates this year since it could, at the margin, restrain the Bank of Canada\u2019s ability to cut rates as much as it might have otherwise,\u201d Mendes said in an email.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"js-widget-content article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--content-slot22 article-content__widget-group--newsletter-slot\">\n<section class=\"newsletter-widget__new-story-page fp-headlinenews background--primary-light-gradient\" aria-labelledby=\"FinancialPostTopStories1670057382713108266717163873632256\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-aqa=\"widget-newsletter\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_HeadlineNews\" data-widget=\"newsletter\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-new-story-page-template\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__header__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__banner__new-story-page\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Top Stories\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/18.0.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Top Stories<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__body__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"js-replace-main__new-story-page\">\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__disclaimer__new-story-page text-size--tiny\">By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-submit-success\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitSuccessFP_HeadlineNews\">\n<p>Thanks for signing up!<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">A welcome email is on its way. If you don&#8217;t see it, please check your junk folder.<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page newsletter__feedback--last\">The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page js-submit-error\" style=\"margin-top: 8px\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitErrorFP_HeadlineNews\">We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment3473370935705300021076199781433344\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile Canadian central bankers believe that domestic monetary policy has not reached its limits in terms of divergence with the U.S. policy, there is a limit somewhere.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s what economists think the inflation data means for the Fed and its future path on interest rates.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\" data-aqa=\"embed-image\"><picture class=\"embedded-image__ratio\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=A2j5u7gwLwJoIIRQzJMucA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=V169HeuOwwaFDtSN9BnZ6g 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=L9HSf-TFUJWSnTDc3kxLpA,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=delSrzafHulf-uJj6pqzgQ 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=Zlqxd4CW-L5jVOOM469Caw,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=w0gdaP9za1ydDX4PnCa69A 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=knvFyHZnhesYQ24Hel-UsA,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=YIf6EBnXLlJ2HE4-ZauLcQ 2x\" media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=qgJnpt7TQHuwiTsI_Flnxg,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=z72La1hkDQZW1AhnxWwzrQ 2x\" media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"data:,1w\" type=\"image\/webp\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"US inflation chart\" class=\"embedded-image__image lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=iBvrqXQLx7iLWGVCuMiQPg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;sig=iBvrqXQLx7iLWGVCuMiQPg,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;sig=FDQqb3ogFx8Txl_HpBmqQA 2x\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/US-inflation-January-2025.png?quality=5&amp;strip=all&amp;w=100&amp;sig=1McjwsO8oBEX6BH7xu8WMA\" height=\"795\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1000\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/figure>\n<h2>Risks of a hike rising: Bank of Montreal<\/h2>\n<p>\u201cNot much to like in today\u2019s January CPI report,\u201d Scott Anderson, the Bank of Montreal\u2019s chief U.S. economist, said in a note. \u201cThe moderation we saw in consumer inflation last summer is no longer visible now.<\/p>\n<p>He said U.S. inflation appears to have reaccelerated after the Fed cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points late last year and so \u201cfinger pointing on the rate cuts will intensify, and market pressures will build on the Fed to stay on hold for a considerable period of time before contemplating another cut.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The data bears that out.<\/p>\n<p>Three-month annualized core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was running at 3.8 per cent, while super-core inflation, which measures services costs minus energy and shelter, was 5.3 per cent, well above the Fed\u2019s two per cent target.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_4\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment9053037793571212528417743415803904\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 4<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>Fed chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday told a U.S. Senate committee he was in no rush to cut rates. He repeated that message Wednesday during his testimony before the House of Representatives\u2019 financial services committee.<\/p>\n<p>The latest CPI data amps up that message, given it looks like the Fed is now dealing with \u201ca real multi-month firming of inflation pressures,\u201d Anderson said.\u00a0\u201cThe risk of Fed rate hikes, while still low, is going up.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>\u2018Hawks have upper hand\u2019: Rosenberg Research<\/h2>\n<p>\u201cBond and stock markets will not like this number one bit, and neither will the Fed \u2014 with the hawks having the upper hand,\u201d David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research &amp; Associates Inc., said in a note.<\/p>\n<p>He pointed out that the evidence of inflation was widespread, despite a strong U.S. dollar. For example, used car prices and insurance spiked, and so did airfares and recreation service costs, as well as food and drug prices and rents.<\/p>\n<p>There were signs of deflation in some segments, but those only account for a smaller piece of the CPI pie, Rosenberg said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cKeep in mind that all of this is taking place in advance of the tariff effects,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_5\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment8101189733328353324617237834760192\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 5<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-5\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"5\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-5\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>U.S. President Donald Trump is currently enjoying a strong approval rating, which Rosenberg thinks will embolden him to push ahead on tax cuts, posing another upside risk to inflation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo, with all that in mind, one can no longer dismiss the odds that not only is the Fed on hold now indefinitely, but that the next move could well be a rate hike,\u201d he said. \u201cNot my base case, but the odds are now hardly trivial and just took a move up on today\u2019s report.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Rates on hold for 2025: Capital Economics<\/h2>\n<p>\u201cInflation \u2026 clearly isn\u2019t coming down decisively any more,\u201d Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics Ltd., said in a note.<\/p>\n<p>With Trump threatening tariffs, which are considered inflationary, the economist thinks the Fed will hold interest rates for the rest of the year.<\/p>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel4614153227767909460274425339314176\" class=\"more-topic\" data-aqa=\"embed-more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\">\n<p>Recommended from Editorial<\/p>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/><\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" sees=\"\" biggest=\"\" inflation-breakout=\"\" risk=\"\" since=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\u201cThis is an especially dangerous moment for any kind of cost shock, any kind of rhetoric that undermines credibility on inflation, any kind of steps that are fiscally irresponsible\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0122-mg-summers.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=zGhCbAVJo-qqqBM-takUqg\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0122-mg-summers.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=5&amp;sig=iOgLAG-sHaCwzdqRBqz2yw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0122-mg-summers.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=zGhCbAVJo-qqqBM-takUqg, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0122-mg-summers.jpg?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=UnmmbdRpHzt0Rog5GKV2XA 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0122-mg-summers.jpg?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=29R-GtiUxm6eqB21_LyUQQ 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" former=\"\" height=\"96\" lawrence=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" said=\"\" secretary=\"\" summers.=\"\" treasury=\"\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Summers sees biggest inflation-breakout risk since 2021<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" inflation=\"\" accelerates=\"\" cutting=\"\" chances=\"\" for=\"\" fed=\"\" rate=\"\" cuts=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Shoppers carry bags in Walnut Creek, Calif. The headline CPI increased three per cent in January from a year ago, up from 2.9 per cent the previous month.\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/qw_US_Retail_Sales_Unexpectedly_Rise_In_Solid_Start_To_Holidays.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=KNxYlvJPkOrR1QJ9982-eg\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/qw_US_Retail_Sales_Unexpectedly_Rise_In_Solid_Start_To_Holidays.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=5&amp;sig=ExEAP39iS-wPY6958r9jdA\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/qw_US_Retail_Sales_Unexpectedly_Rise_In_Solid_Start_To_Holidays.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=KNxYlvJPkOrR1QJ9982-eg, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/qw_US_Retail_Sales_Unexpectedly_Rise_In_Solid_Start_To_Holidays.jpg?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=a5m3SxPNarh_IE-mfkVj1Q 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/qw_US_Retail_Sales_Unexpectedly_Rise_In_Solid_Start_To_Holidays.jpg?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=BPpuFD3XoGUnRXGJIcmBNw 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">U.S. inflation accelerates, cutting chances for Fed rate cuts<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" says=\"\" federal=\"\" reserve=\"\" in=\"\" no=\"\" rush=\"\" to=\"\" lower=\"\" rates=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"United States Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/no0211powell.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=SMzHeirAlaI8HxljgIrUmg\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/no0211powell.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=5&amp;sig=uT_CvIGTQk2JUo9ir14s5Q\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/no0211powell.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=SMzHeirAlaI8HxljgIrUmg, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/no0211powell.jpg?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=NdhJLBMifOuozrPJYO2jZg 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/no0211powell.jpg?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=7yArwV_AUz6ZLX1ThX-khw 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Powell says Federal Reserve in no rush to lower rates<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/><\/section>\n<p>Ashworth estimates the latest CPI data, coupled with tomorrow\u2019s producer price index release, will leave the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation measure \u2014 the personal consumption expenditure index \u2014 higher than policymakers like.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe upshot is that markets are now only pricing in one 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed this year,\u201d he said. \u201cWe still think that\u2019s too dovish,\u201d and that cuts are \u201coff the table\u201d in 2025.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>\u2022 Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\">\n<p>Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>Fed rate hike risk rises on hotter inflation<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2025-02-12 18:46:11<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links News Economy Here&#8217;s what economists are saying about the latest CPI numbers stateside Published Feb 12, 2025 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Last updated 14\u00a0hours ago \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 4 minute read You&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":56189,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-56188","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56188\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/56189"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}