{"id":54686,"date":"2025-01-06T15:31:14","date_gmt":"2025-01-06T15:31:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/01\/06\/canada-stuck-in-recession-say-economists\/"},"modified":"2025-01-06T15:31:14","modified_gmt":"2025-01-06T15:31:14","slug":"canada-stuck-in-recession-say-economists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2025\/01\/06\/canada-stuck-in-recession-say-economists\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada stuck in recession, say economists"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><\/div><p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/p>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">Oil &amp; Gas<\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">Economy<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\">The real measuring stick of a country&#8217;s economy is real GDP per capita<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<p><span class=\"published-date__since\">Published Jan 06, 2025<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"updated-date__since\">Last updated 2\u00a0hours ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">4 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta__bottom\">\n<div class=\"bookmark-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover\" data-aqa=\"popover\" data-click-to-appear=\"True\" data-container=\"\" data-container-offset=\"\" data-no-style=\"\" data-popover-component=\"\" data-position=\"top\" data-sticky=\"\" data-tail-offset=\"200\" data-tail-position=\"right\"><button class=\"popover__trigger bookmark-button\"><span class=\"save-article-button save-article-button--default\" title=\"Save article\" data-article-id=\"ae836118-1db8-4e4a-aa94-155837761b49\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\"\/><\/button><\/p>\n<div aria-describedby=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\" class=\"popover__content\" hidden=\"\" role=\"dialog\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__text\" id=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\">\n<div class=\"bookmark__popover__content\">\n<p>You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"popover__content__close\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\" title=\"Close\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\" class=\"icon--close\" height=\"12\" version=\"1.1\" width=\"12\"><polygon points=\"12 0.95 11.05 0 6 5.05 0.95 0 0 0.95 5.05 6 0 11.05 0.95 12 6 6.95 11.05 12 12 11.05 6.95 6\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">Canada in 2023 recorded its fastest population boom in 66 years, increasing by 1.3 million people, or 3.2 per cent, the vast majority of which came from immigration.<\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by THE CANADIAN PRESS\/Christinne Muschi<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Canada\u2019s in a recession and has been for quite some time, says economist Lars Osberg.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Perhaps not a true recession, according to the standard definition that requires two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the professor at Dalhousie University said. The Canadian economy in the second quarter grew above forecasts at 2.1 per cent, before dropping to one per cent in the third quarter.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment6141653123724099979294476408455168\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 2<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[6,6],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"6x6\" data-ad-loc=\"2\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[6,6],[320,50],[300,50],[300,250],[300,600]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-2\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:600px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-block article-block-bg 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id=\"auth-screen-form\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form--active w-full flex-align-justify-center\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form identity-screen__content w-full\">\n<h2 class=\"blocker-title\">Sign In or Create an Account<\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><span class=\"identity-divider__text\">or<\/span><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"identity-footer identity-screen__content m-x-0 p-x-0 col-sm-6 col-md-12\"\/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>But Osberg said a recession is where we\u2019d be if not for the country\u2019s historic population growth. Canada in 2023 recorded its fastest population boom in 66 years, increasing by 1.3 million people, or 3.2 per cent, the vast majority of which came from immigration.<\/p>\n<p>All those new residents are buying the basics in life and boosting consumption by enough to mask a struggling economy, he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen you have population growth at three per cent a year, that\u2019s a lot of people who are adding to aggregate demand,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\" data-aqa=\"embed-image\"><picture class=\"embedded-image__ratio\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=6tsGC3Q23jFFQGzeUg8N7Q&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=6tsGC3Q23jFFQGzeUg8N7Q&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=6tsGC3Q23jFFQGzeUg8N7Q&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=6tsGC3Q23jFFQGzeUg8N7Q&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=6tsGC3Q23jFFQGzeUg8N7Q&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=6tsGC3Q23jFFQGzeUg8N7Q&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=6tsGC3Q23jFFQGzeUg8N7Q&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=6tsGC3Q23jFFQGzeUg8N7Q&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=6tsGC3Q23jFFQGzeUg8N7Q&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=6tsGC3Q23jFFQGzeUg8N7Q&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=6tsGC3Q23jFFQGzeUg8N7Q&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" class=\"embedded-image__image lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=JapDpTPQlsKFMr7I5zrgLA\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=JapDpTPQlsKFMr7I5zrgLA,\n                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=576&sig=4R8xN9NhOqTGauUffIzZmA 2x\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/q3-gdp-2024-chart-1.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=6tsGC3Q23jFFQGzeUg8N7Q&ssl=1\" alt=\"GDP\" height=\"767\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1000\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\"> Financial Post<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p data-async=\"\">The real measuring stick of a country\u2019s economy, Osberg said, is real GDP per capita, an economy\u2019s production per person. Canada\u2019s real GDP per capita in the third quarter declined for the sixth consecutive quarter, falling by 0.4 per cent.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">The unemployment rate in November rose to 6.8 per cent, up one percentage point from the same time last year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn terms of GDP per capita, we\u2019ve been in a recession for some time now and the increase in the unemployment rate reflects that,\u201d Osberg said.<\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s not the only one sounding the alarm bells.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz in December said Canada is in a recession. Like Osberg, he said the economy\u2019s weakness has been masked by strong population growth.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"js-widget-content article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--content-slot24 article-content__widget-group--newsletter-slot\">\n<section class=\"newsletter-widget__new-story-page fp-headlinenews background--primary-light-gradient\" aria-labelledby=\"FinancialPostTopStories9289591860362844727518491410694144\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-aqa=\"widget-newsletter\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_HeadlineNews\" data-widget=\"newsletter\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-new-story-page-template\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__header__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__banner__new-story-page\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/17.6.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 75w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/17.6.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 100w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/17.6.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 150w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/17.6.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 240w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/17.6.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 320w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/17.6.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 500w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/17.6.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 640w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/17.6.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 800w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/17.6.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 1024w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/17.6.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 1280w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/17.6.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 1600w\" alt=\"Top Stories\" loading=\"lazy\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/17.6.4\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Top Stories<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__body__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"js-replace-main__new-story-page\">\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__disclaimer__new-story-page text-size--tiny\">By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-submit-success\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitSuccessFP_HeadlineNews\">\n<p>Thanks for signing up!<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">A welcome email is on its way. If you don&#8217;t see it, please check your junk folder.<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page newsletter__feedback--last\">The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page js-submit-error\" style=\"margin-top: 8px\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitErrorFP_HeadlineNews\">We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment9446999812358138268913695983665152\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Poloz said consumers have suffered a 30 per cent increase in the cost of living following the recent inflationary period, which has led to reduced spending. Inflation has also fallen faster than predicted, which he said only happens during a recession.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Economist David Rosenberg recently pointed out that Canada\u2019s economy would have been in the hole last year without government stimulus.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe government sector bailed out the national economy in Q3 with a huge 4.8 per cent annualized spending expansion,\u201d he said in his Early Morning with Dave newsletter last month. \u201cStrip that out, and real GDP declined at a 0.3 per cent annual rate. Not a good look.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Rosenberg also highlighted the country\u2019s sixth consecutive slide in real GDP per capita.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\" data-aqa=\"embed-image\"><picture class=\"embedded-image__ratio\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=pimHPk2Ux6nlyWIDAFbhWw&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=pimHPk2Ux6nlyWIDAFbhWw&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=pimHPk2Ux6nlyWIDAFbhWw&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=pimHPk2Ux6nlyWIDAFbhWw&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=pimHPk2Ux6nlyWIDAFbhWw&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=pimHPk2Ux6nlyWIDAFbhWw&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=pimHPk2Ux6nlyWIDAFbhWw&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=pimHPk2Ux6nlyWIDAFbhWw&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=pimHPk2Ux6nlyWIDAFbhWw&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=pimHPk2Ux6nlyWIDAFbhWw&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=pimHPk2Ux6nlyWIDAFbhWw&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"jobless rate chart\" class=\"embedded-image__image lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LV1GLxKWgqht_nm_z-6s5A\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LV1GLxKWgqht_nm_z-6s5A,\n                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=576&sig=WvW-ktDXzUNcX3cO72YGpg 2x\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unemployment-rate-november-2024.jpg?quality=5&strip=all&w=100&sig=pimHPk2Ux6nlyWIDAFbhWw&ssl=1\" height=\"711\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1000\"\/><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\"> Financial Post<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cOnly one other time in recorded history has Canada\u2019s real GDP per capita decayed sequentially for six quarters, and it was during the 1981-82 recession \u2014 this measure has also been negative in eight out of the last nine quarters. Real per capita GDP is now down 1.4\u00a0 per cent on a year-over-year basis and lower than it was in the spring of 2017,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_4\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment9825046610621500217962453991948288\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 4<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Osberg said the result is that the Bank of Canada needs to continue cutting interest rates. In 2024, the central bank cut its policy rate five times to reach 3.25 per cent. But he said any impacts from those cuts won\u2019t be felt for a while.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou\u2019re talking about an 18-month lag from a change in interest rate to the full impact on the economy,\u201d he said. \u201cInterest rates went up pretty dramatically. They\u2019re coming down, but we\u2019re still going to bear the impact of that increase in interest rates for some time to come.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Theoretically, lower interest rates entice investment and bolster productivity. But United States president-elect Donald Trump\u2018s threat to slap a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian imports remains a source of uncertainty for Canada\u2019s growth and investment.<\/p>\n<p>That includes investment in fixed capital, such as manufacturing, which improves productivity, Osberg said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat uncertainty is likely to dominate the impacts of a decline in interest rates for the business sector,\u201d he said. \u201cAt least until we can see which way the dust settles.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A 25 per cent tariff could be particularly damaging for certain provinces, including Alberta and Saskatchewan, which export billions of dollars of oil and gas annually to the U.S.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_5\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment8159660833246177988160342521282560\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 5<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-5\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"5\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-5\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>Osberg said the U.S. has other options to secure its oil and gas supply if Trump implements his tariffs. Alberta\u2019s oil and gas sector accounted for 82 per cent, or $127 billion, of the province\u2019s exports to the U.S. in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAlberta and Saskatchewan don\u2019t have the same luxury,\u201d he said. \u201cSo much of their potential revenue is dependent on the oil and gas sector and they don\u2019t really have an alternative market for their product.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Osberg also took aim at the current GST\/HST tax holiday introduced by the federal government as a way to stimulate consumer spending. The economy needs fiscal stimulus, but he said there are myriad better ways it can be done while helping people on the bottom economic rungs.<\/p>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel148297337644879277376517525471232\" class=\"more-topic\" data-aqa=\"embed-more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\">\n<p>Recommended from Editorial<\/p>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/><\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" predicts=\"\" slower=\"\" growth=\"\" over=\"\" next=\"\" few=\"\" years=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0106-mg-frances.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=GdUggiMBrlxNHIE1LduU4w&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0106-mg-frances.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=GdUggiMBrlxNHIE1LduU4w&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0106-mg-frances.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=GdUggiMBrlxNHIE1LduU4w&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0106-mg-frances.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=GdUggiMBrlxNHIE1LduU4w&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, 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data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0106-mg-frances.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=bAjkKvIGoXFCNT6-DTZEpQ\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0106-mg-frances.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=GdUggiMBrlxNHIE1LduU4w&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0106-mg-frances.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=bAjkKvIGoXFCNT6-DTZEpQ, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0106-mg-frances.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=YGUP4xy97ikiVifG70L_Nw 2x,\n                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0106-mg-frances.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=4-Kaj_KCY17V3YQGhIHx8w 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">RBC predicts slower growth over next few years<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" working=\"\" year=\"\" that=\"\" was:=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=8SWDU9uxt-bWmwupOVW6Lg&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=8SWDU9uxt-bWmwupOVW6Lg&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=8SWDU9uxt-bWmwupOVW6Lg&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=8SWDU9uxt-bWmwupOVW6Lg&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=8SWDU9uxt-bWmwupOVW6Lg&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=8SWDU9uxt-bWmwupOVW6Lg&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=8SWDU9uxt-bWmwupOVW6Lg&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=8SWDU9uxt-bWmwupOVW6Lg&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=8SWDU9uxt-bWmwupOVW6Lg&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=8SWDU9uxt-bWmwupOVW6Lg&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=8SWDU9uxt-bWmwupOVW6Lg&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Facing soaring living costs and a recession, 2024 was the year Canadian workers and employers showed grit, adaptability and patience.\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=yDikOFTVDhj6mF8Iry2z-w\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=8SWDU9uxt-bWmwupOVW6Lg&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=yDikOFTVDhj6mF8Iry2z-w, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=Q73CArFKMOvWtGU5x7J7gQ 2x,\n                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0101-mg-workers-2024.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=YVI_uudYuq-2mpMsrw2dsQ 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">The working year that was: 2024<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/><\/section>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not just about stimulating the aggregate economy and the aggregate GDP,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s also about mitigating the hardship of some of those 6.8 per cent unemployed. They\u2019re people too; they should count.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>\u2022 Email: arankin@postmedia.com<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\">\n<p>Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>Canada stuck in recession, say economists<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2025-01-06 15:31:14<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links Oil &amp; Gas Economy The real measuring stick of a country&#8217;s economy is real GDP per capita Published Jan 06, 2025 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Last updated 2\u00a0hours ago \u00a0\u2022\u00a0&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":54687,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/1007-bc-recession.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=MO-F1IFw2bZcZuXJcHdeeA","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54686","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54686"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54686\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/54687"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}