{"id":53917,"date":"2024-12-12T22:43:20","date_gmt":"2024-12-12T22:43:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2024\/12\/12\/monetary-policy-can-only-do-so-much-in-face-of-tariffs\/"},"modified":"2024-12-12T22:43:20","modified_gmt":"2024-12-12T22:43:20","slug":"monetary-policy-can-only-do-so-much-in-face-of-tariffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2024\/12\/12\/monetary-policy-can-only-do-so-much-in-face-of-tariffs\/","title":{"rendered":"Monetary policy can &#8216;only do so much&#8217; in face of tariffs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/p>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">News<\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">Economy<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\">Central bank may have to cut more if tariffs are enacted and growth slows, but other adjustments will also be required, says Paul Beaudry<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<p><span class=\"published-date__since\">Published Dec 12, 2024<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">3 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta__bottom\">\n<div class=\"bookmark-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover\" data-aqa=\"popover\" data-click-to-appear=\"True\" data-container=\"\" data-container-offset=\"\" data-no-style=\"\" data-popover-component=\"\" data-position=\"top\" data-sticky=\"\" data-tail-offset=\"200\" data-tail-position=\"right\"><button class=\"popover__trigger bookmark-button\"><span class=\"save-article-button save-article-button--default\" title=\"Save article\" data-article-id=\"825ec48f-4a64-4c48-9892-0d4d50385aa4\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\"\/><\/button><\/p>\n<div aria-describedby=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\" class=\"popover__content\" hidden=\"\" role=\"dialog\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__text\" id=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\">\n<div class=\"bookmark__popover__content\">\n<p>You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"popover__content__close\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\" title=\"Close\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\" class=\"icon--close\" height=\"12\" version=\"1.1\" width=\"12\"><polygon points=\"12 0.95 11.05 0 6 5.05 0.95 0 0 0.95 5.05 6 0 11.05 0.95 12 6 6.95 11.05 12 12 11.05 6.95 6\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1212beaudry.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=0hefjHstn2UaaUthtCSMLQ,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1212beaudry.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=upDkET5lkfyu-DjsU-oeEg 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1212beaudry.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=D6Kclr0m3xrkxr_SCdM0nQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1212beaudry.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=JGzoqkPEWePFJ8YSCNgSmg 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1212beaudry.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=2zXl6XTlIIxWp_lfgSnBRw,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1212beaudry.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=a4Lk0Jo4QwygJREwCbMZeA 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1212beaudry.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=318yC4RzLgTKE-y5KS4UNw,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1212beaudry.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=DZ3SyKhYTm1i4g8EBJsnHA 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1212beaudry.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;h=216&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=kxw0ih23-9o4w8_RcAs5-g,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1212beaudry.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;h=432&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=MhPmy7buIySrZS71aIjJnw 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">Paul Beaudry, former deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, departs after speakiing at the Bank of Canada headquarters in Ottawa, Ont., 2022.<\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by David Kawai\/Bloomberg files<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Former Bank of Canada deputy governor Paul Beaudry says there are limits to what monetary policy can do to alleviate the effects brought on by tariffs.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBy itself (monetary policy), it can only do so much, it can\u2019t be thought of as lifting everything,\u201d Beaudry said. \u201cMonetary policy cannot carry all that weight, and we need other adjustments.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Beaudry, a professor of economics at the University of British Columbia and senior advisor to Bennett Jones LLP, presented an economic outlook for the law firm on Wednesday, sharing his views on where interest rates and growth are headed next year.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment8927231145541188507626712976064512\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 2<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" 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articles from across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month.<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__registration_only hidden\">\n<p>THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.<\/p>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Access articles from across Canada with one account<\/li>\n<li>Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"identity-screen m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-md-6 flex-justify-center flex-align-center\" aria-live=\"assertive\">\n<section class=\"sail\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine=\"\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine-component=\"\"\/>\n<div class=\"m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-sm-6 col-md-12 flex-align-justify-center\" data-auth-component=\"\" id=\"auth-screen-form\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form--active w-full flex-align-justify-center\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form identity-screen__content w-full\">\n<h2 class=\"blocker-title\">Sign In or Create an Account<\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><span class=\"identity-divider__text\">or<\/span><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"identity-footer identity-screen__content m-x-0 p-x-0 col-sm-6 col-md-12\"\/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">The Bank of Canada made a second consecutive half-point cut to its policy rate on Wednesday, bringing the overnight rate down to 3.25 per cent, right at the top of the central bank\u2019s neutral range.<\/p>\n<p>Beaudry expects the bank will continue to cut in the new year, before pausing once it hits 2.75 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think we\u2019ll see another cut right at the beginning of next year then kind of into the spring, and then sometime after that we\u2019ll get into the bank\u2019s neutral range,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Beaudry added that if tariffs are enacted and growth slows, then the central bank may have to cut more.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere might be even more cuts to react to that, as we go forward,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">However, Beaudry thinks Canada will require other adjustments if tariffs are implemented, including creating conditions to lift business investment\u2019s share of gross domestic product by three to five per cent, safeguarding the U.S.-Canada relationship, developing a national strategy to address Canada\u2019s productivity problem and doing a better job of commercializing and scaling up Canadian companies.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund projected Canada\u2019s growth to come in at 2.1 per cent, although that number is now under review due to incoming U.S. president Donald Trump\u2019s threat to impose a 25-per cent tariff on all Canadian exports when he takes office in the new year.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment8738720968559736220681861467209728\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>According to its latest economic outlook, Bennett Jones LLP expects Canada\u2019s economy to grow by 1.5 per cent next year. The growth forecast assumes Trump will reconsider his 25-per-cent tariff threat to Canada but still accounts for other trade risks brought on by the new administration\u2019s economic agenda.<\/p>\n<p>The growth projection also considers the slowdown in population growth next year, brought on by changes in immigration targets announced by the federal government this past fall.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe implications for the population of Canada will not be as fast as the federal government has been predicting, we don\u2019t think there will be negative population growth next year,\u201d Beaudry said. \u201cWe do think immigration will be reduced quite a bit and that\u2019s going to slow things down.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The one silver lining in the third quarter results for Canada\u2019s GDP was that consumer spending began to rebound. Beaudry thinks that uncertainty could put an end to that.<\/p>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel1202614956173046934160086881271808\" class=\"more-topic\" data-aqa=\"embed-more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\">\n<p>Recommended from Editorial<\/p>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/><\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" latest=\"\" bank=\"\" of=\"\" canada=\"\" rate=\"\" cut=\"\" boost=\"\" housing=\"\" market=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"The Bank of Canada's most recent interest rate cut is expected to stimulate the housing market.\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/housing-market-gs1211.png?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=ODbZq5TncbBxIoyyAPhOXQ\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/housing-market-gs1211.png?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=5&amp;sig=D5zFx82fwJocFfVrCb41xQ\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/housing-market-gs1211.png?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=ODbZq5TncbBxIoyyAPhOXQ, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/housing-market-gs1211.png?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=bYmYx2IB1owf_sr0KAvGbQ 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/housing-market-gs1211.png?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=dGXvPodl8sgzpm-V5uHJZQ 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Will latest Bank of Canada rate cut boost housing market?<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" jumbo=\"\" cuts=\"\" are=\"\" done=\"\" and=\"\" dusted=\"\" economists=\"\" say=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem holds a press conference at the Bank of Canada in Ottawa.\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1211macklem.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=zJj-7Jor78BAmvHHll3TZQ\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1211macklem.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=5&amp;sig=tfFiut-zVF7siMX87iuKOQ\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1211macklem.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=zJj-7Jor78BAmvHHll3TZQ, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1211macklem.jpg?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=_5fwYlOSEXWc_Uyu-NZ-jA 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/no1211macklem.jpg?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=rwDmMM66IaTdb5reC_VEUA 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Those jumbo cuts are done and dusted, economists say<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/><\/section>\n<p>He also said mortgage renewals going into next year pose less of a risk to the economy.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThose rates have really come down, now they might be a bit higher than what people expected but not that much, so I think there is a lot of relief there and I think that cliff is a lot less deep,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>\u2022 Email: jgowling@postmedia.com<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\">\n<p>Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>Monetary policy can &#8216;only do so much&#8217; in face of tariffs<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2024-12-12 22:43:20<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links News Economy Central bank may have to cut more if tariffs are enacted and growth slows, but other adjustments will also be required, says Paul Beaudry Published&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":53918,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-53917","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53917","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53917"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53917\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/53918"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}