{"id":51189,"date":"2024-10-02T20:25:04","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T20:25:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2024\/10\/02\/central-banks-should-prepare-for-era-of-supply-shocks-bis\/"},"modified":"2024-10-02T20:25:04","modified_gmt":"2024-10-02T20:25:04","slug":"central-banks-should-prepare-for-era-of-supply-shocks-bis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2024\/10\/02\/central-banks-should-prepare-for-era-of-supply-shocks-bis\/","title":{"rendered":"Central banks should prepare for era of supply shocks: BIS"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/p>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">News<\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">Economy<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\">Shifting dynamics in geopolitics, trade, demographics and the green transition could pose a risk to the inflation outlook<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<p><span class=\"published-date__since\">Published Oct 02, 2024<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"updated-date__since\">Last updated 1\u00a0hour ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">2 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta__bottom\">\n<div class=\"bookmark-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover\" data-aqa=\"popover\" data-click-to-appear=\"True\" data-container=\"\" data-container-offset=\"\" data-no-style=\"\" data-popover-component=\"\" data-position=\"top\" data-sticky=\"\" data-tail-offset=\"200\" data-tail-position=\"right\"><button class=\"popover__trigger bookmark-button\"><span class=\"save-article-button save-article-button--default\" title=\"Save article\" data-article-id=\"64a66fff-f74b-493e-ba8e-baba6365f985\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\"\/><\/button><\/p>\n<div aria-describedby=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\" class=\"popover__content\" hidden=\"\" role=\"dialog\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__text\" id=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\">\n<div class=\"bookmark__popover__content\">\n<p>You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"popover__content__close\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\" title=\"Close\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\" class=\"icon--close\" height=\"12\" version=\"1.1\" width=\"12\"><polygon points=\"12 0.95 11.05 0 6 5.05 0.95 0 0 0.95 5.05 6 0 11.05 0.95 12 6 6.95 11.05 12 12 11.05 6.95 6\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/no1002bis.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=KC88xAfVJuzrrnpUq_4qkg,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/no1002bis.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=kqxu4ldfOrf_xeXMAdfyUQ 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/no1002bis.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=4TKBflOG_HjkW1EuHwIlhg,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/no1002bis.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=9y4mzd3lREh1UAPbbZru1Q 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/no1002bis.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=8AHjhyaGjSg1oOw7s7noxw,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/no1002bis.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=uSNWsCcPoqTHhFsYOtf_jA 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/no1002bis.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=i7RPJC2-cfYbxh4yFqD4JQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/no1002bis.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=AE5BZx7T4q1GJ2u7LwvQYQ 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/no1002bis.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;h=216&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=aJUFihj0sKt4kZCOUTGHAA,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/no1002bis.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;h=432&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=a_FsMx4zysQ1lOnA2DzWGw 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">Flags of international countries outside the headquarters of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.<\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by Gianluca Colla\/Bloomberg files<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>Supply shocks in the global economy could become the new normal and central banks should adjust monetary policy accordingly, the Bank for International Settlements is warning.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe economic landscape may well be changing, featuring greater risk of adverse supply shocks and less elastic supply,\u201d BIS deputy manager Andr\u00e9a M. Maechler said in a speech at the London School of Economics on Wednesday. \u201cThis may require adjustments to the conduct of monetary policy in the face of more inflationary supply and demand shocks. Looking through supply shocks will not always be possible.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment3976372534068049721122040594825216\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 2<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[6,6],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"6x6\" data-ad-loc=\"2\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[6,6],[320,50],[300,50],[300,250],[300,600]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-2\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:600px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-block article-block-bg article-content__sign-in-group hidden\" data-aqa=\"identity-sign-in\" data-async=\"\" 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month<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"identity-screen m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-md-6 flex-justify-center flex-align-center\" aria-live=\"assertive\">\n<section class=\"sail\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine=\"\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine-component=\"\"\/>\n<div class=\"m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-sm-6 col-md-12 flex-align-justify-center\" data-auth-component=\"\" id=\"auth-screen-form\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form--active w-full flex-align-justify-center\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form identity-screen__content w-full\">\n<h2 class=\"blocker-title\">Sign In or Create an Account<\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><span class=\"identity-divider__text\">or<\/span><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"identity-footer identity-screen__content m-x-0 p-x-0 col-sm-6 col-md-12\"\/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Maechler outlined how the shifting dynamics in geopolitics, trade, demographics and the green transition could pose a risk to the inflation outlook. Forceful monetary tightening may sometimes be needed to keep inflation expectations anchored.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">This was already a lesson learned during the start of the inflation crisis in 2022, when central banks were slow to raise policy interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWith the benefit of hindsight, some have argued that central banks in many advanced economies were slow to react to the initial burst of inflation, anticipating that they could look through it because it would be transitory,\u201d Maechler said.<\/p>\n<p>Maechler outlined how some of the supply shocks that occurred during the inflation crisis have not subsided. Energy prices remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels in many countries and labour markets have changed significantly, with unknown long-term impacts on supply and productivity.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Demographic shifts are also changing labour markets, as birth rates have plummeted in advanced economies. Maechler argued this will lead to declines in the working age population relative to the larger baby boom generation, which is leaving the workforce.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment1436132226874353765389342974410752\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">\u201cAs these demographic trends turn, workers\u2019 bargaining power might increase, potentially generating greater resistance to downward pressures on real wages or even bringing back indexation mechanisms and leading to wage-price spirals,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>Globalization has also begun to wane in recent years, which could have a direct impact on the ability of countries to ease domestic supply constraints.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf deglobalization trends take hold, they would weaken the scope for international trade to act as a shock absorber of domestic inflationary pressures,\u201d Maechler said.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Lastly, Maechler warned the green transition could prove bumpy until investments in green technologies reach a sufficient scale. In the meantime, Maechler says the impacts from climate change will continue to impact food prices.<\/p>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel7100471989724406413975602923044864\" class=\"more-topic\" data-aqa=\"embed-more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\">\n<p>Recommended from Editorial<\/p>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/><\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" charts=\"\" bolster=\"\" the=\"\" case=\"\" for=\"\" two=\"\" rate=\"\" cuts=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Canada's economy is generating more \" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/canada-economy-gs1001.png?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=U613_fOJdUVB9ClmLaWIOw\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/canada-economy-gs1001.png?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=5&amp;sig=sDBsmcmES6rCX4LhDxcNAg\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/canada-economy-gs1001.png?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=U613_fOJdUVB9ClmLaWIOw, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/canada-economy-gs1001.png?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=AFVrXBcIGoKCbSF82KJe_Q 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/canada-economy-gs1001.png?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=xn-WnieJ1GCgiFOfukld2A 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" data.=\"\" downbeat=\"\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">These 3 charts bolster the case for two 50-bps rate cuts<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" growth=\"\" falls=\"\" behind=\"\" bank=\"\" of=\"\" canada=\"\" forecast=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"The services-producing sector grew by 0.2 per cent in July, driven by the retail services, finance and public sector industries.\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ottawa-bureaucracy-gs0927.png?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=ZGmfyuxwqTlP2IS3wRNoWg\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ottawa-bureaucracy-gs0927.png?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=5&amp;sig=OLSAOqPntQFMa4DNglqoFQ\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ottawa-bureaucracy-gs0927.png?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=ZGmfyuxwqTlP2IS3wRNoWg, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ottawa-bureaucracy-gs0927.png?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=DR9N3eTqb8545mjFDd4srg 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ottawa-bureaucracy-gs0927.png?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=alrrQESd5fXwaKlmFP3ffw 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Economic growth falls behind Bank of Canada&#8217;s forecast<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/><\/section>\n<p>\u201cFood prices could also become more volatile due to rising global temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events,\u201d Maechler said. \u201cWe already had a small taste of this in 2022\u201323, when a combination of high temperatures and droughts in southern Europe, and heavy rains in northern Europe, contributed to a food price spike. Both advanced and emerging market economies may be affected by these shocks.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>\u2022 Email: jgowling@postmedia.com<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\">\n<p>Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>Central banks should prepare for era of supply shocks: BIS<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2024-10-02 20:25:04<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links News Economy Shifting dynamics in geopolitics, trade, demographics and the green transition could pose a risk to the inflation outlook Published Oct 02, 2024 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Last updated&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":51190,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51189","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51189"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51189\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/51190"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51189"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51189"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51189"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}