{"id":46643,"date":"2024-05-03T14:45:44","date_gmt":"2024-05-03T14:45:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2024\/05\/03\/bank-of-canada-needs-to-start-cutting-rates-now-rosenberg\/"},"modified":"2024-05-03T14:45:44","modified_gmt":"2024-05-03T14:45:44","slug":"bank-of-canada-needs-to-start-cutting-rates-now-rosenberg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2024\/05\/03\/bank-of-canada-needs-to-start-cutting-rates-now-rosenberg\/","title":{"rendered":"Bank Of Canada needs to start cutting rates now: Rosenberg"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><\/div><p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/p>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">Economy<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\">Key data points indicate the central bank is keeping policy &#8216;far too tight&#8217;<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<p><span class=\"published-date__since\">Published May 03, 2024<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"updated-date__since\">Last updated 1\u00a0hour ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">5 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta__bottom\">\n<div class=\"bookmark-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover\" data-aqa=\"popover\" data-click-to-appear=\"True\" data-container=\"\" data-container-offset=\"\" data-no-style=\"\" data-popover-component=\"\" data-position=\"top\" data-sticky=\"\" data-tail-offset=\"200\" data-tail-position=\"right\"><button class=\"popover__trigger bookmark-button\"><span class=\"save-article-button save-article-button--default\" title=\"Save article\" data-article-id=\"638159bf-4c1d-4bb4-8b23-2ad190745bba\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\"\/><\/button><\/p>\n<div aria-describedby=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\" class=\"popover__content\" hidden=\"\" role=\"dialog\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__text\" id=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\">\n<div class=\"bookmark__popover__content\">\n<p>You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"popover__content__close\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\" title=\"Close\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\" class=\"icon--close\" height=\"12\" version=\"1.1\" width=\"12\"><polygon points=\"12 0.95 11.05 0 6 5.05 0.95 0 0 0.95 5.05 6 0 11.05 0.95 12 6 6.95 11.05 12 12 11.05 6.95 6\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">The primary risk in Canada is homegrown deflation as excess capacity builds, not inflation.<\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by Postmedia<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">The most important inflation metric, the CPIX, which excludes the eight most volatile segments of the index, is running at 2.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis. That is pretty well on target, barely higher than the pre-COVID-19 trend, and less than half the pace of a year ago.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">The year-over-year retail price index has gone from more than two per cent a year ago to flat today. There is absolutely no pricing power at all in the Canadian retail sector.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment7718926196779201440012807465598976\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 2<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[6,6],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"6x6\" data-ad-loc=\"2\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[6,6],[320,50],[300,50],[300,250],[300,600]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-2\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:600px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-block article-block-bg article-content__sign-in-group hidden\" data-aqa=\"identity-sign-in\" 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Times, the world&#8217;s leading global business publication.<\/li>\n<li>Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.<\/li>\n<li>Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__anonymous\">\n<p>REGISTER \/ SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES<\/p>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Access articles from across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month.<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"identity-screen m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-md-6 flex-justify-center flex-align-center\" aria-live=\"assertive\">\n<section class=\"sail\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine=\"\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine-component=\"\"\/>\n<div class=\"m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-sm-6 col-md-12 flex-align-justify-center\" data-auth-component=\"\" id=\"auth-screen-form\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form--active w-full flex-align-justify-center\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form identity-screen__content w-full\">\n<h2 class=\"blocker-title\">Sign In or Create an Account<\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><span class=\"identity-divider__text\">or<\/span><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"identity-footer identity-screen__content m-x-0 p-x-0 col-sm-6 col-md-12\"\/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Real gross domestic product growth in the past year is running at 0.9 per cent, even with population gains running at 3.2 per cent year over year. The math works out to a decay in real output per capita of two per cent at an annual rate.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">The unemployment rate, at 6.1 per cent, is higher today than it was pre-COVID-19, when the policy rate was 1.75 per cent, not five per cent. It is up a full percentage point on a year-over-year basis, which points to elevated 80 per cent recession odds. The ranks of unemployment have surged 23 per cent over the past 12 months as the number of people entering the labour force has nearly doubled the number of folks actually landing a job. Nothing here spells a future of accelerating wage inflation \u2014 quite the opposite.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Another measure of economic slack, the employment-to-population ratio, at 61.4 per cent, compares to the 62.1 per cent pre-COVID-19 level. Not only that, but the broadest form of unemployment that includes all measures of idle labour resources, otherwise known as the R-8 jobless rate, now stands at 8.8 per cent versus 7.5 per cent a year ago. That is nearly where it was in the comparable 2019 period (the data are not seasonally adjusted, so they have to be compared with March of prior years for comparative purposes), when, yet again, the Bank of Canada was pinning the overnight rate at 1.75 per cent.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"js-widget-content article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--content-slot13 article-content__widget-group--newsletter-slot\">\n<section class=\"newsletter-widget__new-story-page fp-headlinenews background--primary-light-gradient\" aria-labelledby=\"FinancialPostTopStories1312886235988886880388983730208768\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-aqa=\"widget-newsletter\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_HeadlineNews\" data-widget=\"newsletter\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-new-story-page-template\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__header__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__banner__new-story-page\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/16.0.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 75w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/16.0.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 100w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/16.0.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 150w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/16.0.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 240w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/16.0.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 320w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/16.0.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 500w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/16.0.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 640w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/16.0.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 800w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/16.0.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 1024w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/16.0.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 1280w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/16.0.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 1600w\" alt=\"Top Stories\" loading=\"lazy\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/16.0.2\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Top Stories<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__body__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"js-replace-main__new-story-page\">\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__disclaimer__new-story-page text-size--tiny\">By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-submit-success\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitSuccessFP_HeadlineNews\">\n<p>Thanks for signing up!<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">A welcome email is on its way. If you don&#8217;t see it, please check your junk folder.<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page newsletter__feedback--last\">The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page js-submit-error\" style=\"margin-top: 8px\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitErrorFP_HeadlineNews\">We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment348296518124919803219130873544704\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>The industry-wide capacity utilization rate (the employment rate equivalent for the business sector) is down to 78.7 per cent, the lowest (most disinflationary) since the fourth quarter of 2020. The pre-COVID-19 level was near 80 per cent \u2014 again, when the policy rate was 325 basis points below where it resides today.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation-phobes should recognize that, on a year-over-year basis, because of this excess of supply over demand, producer prices in Canada are running at minus 0.5 per cent and at minus 0.2 per cent for the core (ex-energy) index.<\/p>\n<h2>Bank of Canada behind the curve<\/h2>\n<p>The Bank of Canada\u2019s own estimate of potential non-inflationary growth from now to 2027 is 1.8 per cent at an annual rate. The economy is now running at half that pace. Ergo, the primary risk in Canada is homegrown deflation as excess capacity builds, not inflation.<\/p>\n<p>In last year\u2019s fourth quarter, the disinflationary \u201coutput gap\u201d in Canada was estimated at minus 0.7 per cent and that came after a minus 0.1 per cent deviation between actual real GDP and the level that would be consistent with inflationary pressure. This is a classic measure of overall economic slack. And since that time, the \u201cgap\u201d has only continued to widen.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_4\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment9054232142846771476597901222739968\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 4<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">The Bank of Canada is below the disinflation curve almost as much as it was behind the inflation curve back in 2021 and early 2022. Going back over the past quarter-century, an output gap of any size rarely coincided with a five per cent policy rate, and on average, the central bank was pegging that rate closer to two per cent. No matter how you slice it or dice it, the Bank of Canada is keeping policy far too tight. It may be true that the United States Federal Reserve is on a different course, but then again, the U.S. economy is running at more than triple the pace of Canada\u2019s.<\/p>\n<h2>Debt service costs soar<\/h2>\n<p>In aggregate, Canadians are shelling out 15 cents of every after-tax dollar on debt service. That is right at, or higher than, the punishing levels that presaged each of the past four recessions dating back to 1990. The future is one of a cycle of debt-deleveraging and defaults, and that, again, is a deflationary development.<\/p>\n<p>The Bank of Canada\u2019s estimate of R-star (or the \u201cneutral\u201d nominal policy rate) is between 2.25 per cent and 3.25 per cent. The midpoint, at 2.75 per cent, means the central bank is 225 basis points \u201ctoo tight.\u201d Its rate is 175 basis points higher than the high end of that band, for crying out loud.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_5\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment4404422378657026575224718651031552\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 5<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-5\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"5\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-5\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, policymakers acknowledged at their April 10 policy meeting that \u201cthe economy moved into excess supply.\u201d If anything, an economy that has moved into such a disinflationary \u201coutput gap\u201d should have the overnight rate <em>below<\/em> the midpoint of that R-star range, not 225 basis points <em>above<\/em> that estimate.<\/p>\n<h2>Go long on bonds<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">The message: Go long on the Government of Canada bond market, with the biggest yield declines to come at the front end of the curve and the greatest total net return at the back end due to convexity and duration. This should be good news for the banks as well as other rate-sensitives such as pipelines, real estate investment trusts (selectively) and utilities.<\/p>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel8671389615991615669286712280875008\" class=\"more-topic\" data-aqa=\"embed-more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\">\n<p>Recommended from Editorial<\/p>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/><\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" rosenberg:=\"\" time=\"\" for=\"\" macklem=\"\" to=\"\" turn=\"\" before=\"\" it=\"\" too=\"\" late=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=bOM5TToEZmZlFhcT3FjDYQ&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=bOM5TToEZmZlFhcT3FjDYQ&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=bOM5TToEZmZlFhcT3FjDYQ&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=bOM5TToEZmZlFhcT3FjDYQ&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=bOM5TToEZmZlFhcT3FjDYQ&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=bOM5TToEZmZlFhcT3FjDYQ&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=bOM5TToEZmZlFhcT3FjDYQ&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=bOM5TToEZmZlFhcT3FjDYQ&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=bOM5TToEZmZlFhcT3FjDYQ&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=bOM5TToEZmZlFhcT3FjDYQ&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=bOM5TToEZmZlFhcT3FjDYQ&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem at a press conference in Ottawa.\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=DvcASaT4jBZeqqhMgxxTYg\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=bOM5TToEZmZlFhcT3FjDYQ&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=DvcASaT4jBZeqqhMgxxTYg, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=QAwMPlb9N9Xwoo9hU6_smQ 2x,\n                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/no0417macklem.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=AaMbpI9ZoQjvjGYLKhXpTA 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">David Rosenberg: Time for Macklem to turn before it\u2019s too late<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" was=\"\" once=\"\" productive=\"\" and=\"\" competitive=\"\" but=\"\" not=\"\" today=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Total factor productivity in Canada, under this current government in Ottawa, is now back to where it was a quarter-century ago, David Rosenberg says.\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=JxJLymZB1b0rogGdMA5GeA\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=JxJLymZB1b0rogGdMA5GeA, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=zaNZC5M5SFvrfFiXQD_Q9A 2x,\n                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=Ga4r2t__2zy6_nmIGh-11g 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Canada was once productive and competitive, but not today<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" of=\"\" canada=\"\" will=\"\" have=\"\" to=\"\" cut=\"\" rates=\"\" sooner=\"\" and=\"\" harder=\"\" than=\"\" fed=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Canadian households are hunkering down and sharply reducing their appetite for debt.\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=wQBRVVcNFpoc6LeiR8e1-w\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=wQBRVVcNFpoc6LeiR8e1-w, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=ZkTglsGVoB6vew2yl7Maww 2x,\n                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=0y0t2u0Jdn_p9aN1khrGGg 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Bank of Canada will have to cut rates sooner and harder than Fed<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/><\/section>\n<p data-async=\"\">And with the Fed on hold for many months to come, interest rate differentials in favour of the U.S. dollar will be keeping the Canadian dollar under downward pressure \u2014 good news here for exporters and tourist operators.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>David Rosenberg is founder and president of independent research firm Rosenberg Research &amp; Associates Inc. To receive more of David Rosenberg\u2019s insights and analysis, you can sign up for a complimentary, one-month trial on the Rosenberg Research website.<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\">\n<p>Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>Bank Of Canada needs to start cutting rates now: Rosenberg<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2024-05-03 14:45:44<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links Economy Key data points indicate the central bank is keeping policy &#8216;far too tight&#8217; Published May 03, 2024 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Last updated 1\u00a0hour ago \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 5 minute read&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":46644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/deflation-0403-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=_XT6j9OaZUcVD2YaNjKkCg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46643","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46643"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46643\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/46644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46643"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46643"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46643"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}