{"id":45580,"date":"2024-04-04T13:43:15","date_gmt":"2024-04-04T13:43:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2024\/04\/04\/rosenberg-diving-canadian-dollar-to-create-these-winners-losers\/"},"modified":"2024-04-04T13:43:15","modified_gmt":"2024-04-04T13:43:15","slug":"rosenberg-diving-canadian-dollar-to-create-these-winners-losers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2024\/04\/04\/rosenberg-diving-canadian-dollar-to-create-these-winners-losers\/","title":{"rendered":"Rosenberg: Diving Canadian dollar to create these winners, losers"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><\/div><p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/p>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">News<\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">Investor<\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">Economy<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\">Rosenberg Research: A weak loonie is not a thing to automatically fear<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<p><span class=\"published-date__since\">Published Apr 04, 2024<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"updated-date__since\">Last updated 1\u00a0hour ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">4 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta__bottom\">\n<div class=\"bookmark-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover\" data-aqa=\"popover\" data-click-to-appear=\"True\" data-container=\"\" data-container-offset=\"\" data-no-style=\"\" data-popover-component=\"\" data-position=\"top\" data-sticky=\"\" data-tail-offset=\"200\" data-tail-position=\"right\"><button class=\"popover__trigger bookmark-button\"><span class=\"save-article-button save-article-button--default\" title=\"Save article\" data-article-id=\"1c1665c1-afad-4020-9e26-a044f23eb6ea\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\"\/><\/button><\/p>\n<div aria-describedby=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\" class=\"popover__content\" hidden=\"\" role=\"dialog\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__text\" id=\"popover-desc-popover-bookmark\">\n<div class=\"bookmark__popover__content\">\n<p>You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"popover__content__close\" data-evt-skip-click=\"true\" title=\"Close\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\" class=\"icon--close\" height=\"12\" version=\"1.1\" width=\"12\"><polygon points=\"12 0.95 11.05 0 6 5.05 0.95 0 0 0.95 5.05 6 0 11.05 0.95 12 6 6.95 11.05 12 12 11.05 6.95 6\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">The Canadian dollar is set to remain weak for some time to come.<\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by Brent Lewin\/Bloomberg<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">The Canadian dollar looks set to take a dive this summer, or at least to remain weak for some time to come.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Cyclical and structural factors point to Canadian rates falling earlier and faster than in the United States, meaning that now is the time to trim loonie exposure (although Government of Canada bonds do look appealing for domestic investors). That presents a risk to inflation, and consumers would feel it in the price of imported items \u2014 the Bank of Canada\u2019s cut pacing may depend on the degree of pass-through from the exchange rate to consumers.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment5700828387338114731642309144739840\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 2<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[6,6],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"6x6\" data-ad-loc=\"2\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[6,6],[320,50],[300,50],[300,250],[300,600]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-2\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:600px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues 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the comments.<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month.<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"identity-screen m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-md-6 flex-justify-center flex-align-center\" aria-live=\"assertive\">\n<section class=\"sail\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine=\"\" data-sailthru-personalization-engine-component=\"\"\/>\n<div class=\"m-x-0 p-x-0 col-xs-12 col-sm-6 col-md-12 flex-align-justify-center\" data-auth-component=\"\" id=\"auth-screen-form\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form--active w-full flex-align-justify-center\">\n<div class=\"identity-screen-form identity-screen__content w-full\">\n<h2 class=\"blocker-title\">Sign In or Create an Account<\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><span class=\"identity-divider__text\">or<\/span><span class=\"identity-divider__line\"\/><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"identity-footer identity-screen__content m-x-0 p-x-0 col-sm-6 col-md-12\"\/><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>But rate moves always generate winners and losers, and a weak Canadian dollar would support exporters, could improve competitiveness and might help reverse the trend of declining net investment.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">On both the activity and inflation fronts, the case for rate cuts has become much stronger in Canada than it is stateside. Real incomes are declining in Canada, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is running at one per cent (versus more than 2.5 per cent in the U.S.), and elevated interest rates are weighing on investment and productivity.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Meanwhile, headline inflation is within the target band, and core measures are falling fast \u2014 in stark contrast to the \u201cstall\u201d in disinflation that U.S. investors are so worried about. What\u2019s more, elevated shelter inflation measures, which governor Tiff Macklem loves highlighting as a reason for caution, will fall as soon as the Bank of Canada eases rates.<\/p>\n<p>This all points to a widening of the negative spread between U.S. and Canadian rates. Currently, the yield on the two-year Government of Canada bond stands at 4.22 per cent, 47 basis points below the U.S. equivalent at 4.69 per cent. In the (extremely plausible) scenario that markets price in an extra 50 basis points of spreads (the equivalent of two additional cuts in Canada in the near term), the loonie would fall by around 10 per cent to $1.50 against the greenback from the current level around $1.35. That would mark the weakest level since 2003.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"js-widget-content article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--content-slot15 article-content__widget-group--newsletter-slot\">\n<section class=\"newsletter-widget__new-story-page None background--primary-light-gradient\" aria-labelledby=\"FPInvestor1659891710771145240288628184186880\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-aqa=\"widget-newsletter\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_Investor\" data-widget=\"newsletter\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-new-story-page-template\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__header__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__banner__new-story-page\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/15.7.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-investor.svg 75w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/15.7.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-investor.svg 100w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/15.7.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-investor.svg 150w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/15.7.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-investor.svg 240w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/15.7.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-investor.svg 320w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/15.7.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-investor.svg 500w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/15.7.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-investor.svg 640w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/15.7.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-investor.svg 800w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/15.7.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-investor.svg 1024w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/15.7.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-investor.svg 1280w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/15.7.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-investor.svg 1600w\" alt=\"FP Investor Banner\" loading=\"lazy\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/15.7.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-investor.svg\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Investor<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">Canada&#8217;s best source for investing news, analysis and insight.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__body__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"js-replace-main__new-story-page\">\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__disclaimer__new-story-page text-size--tiny\">By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-submit-success\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitSuccessFP_Investor\">\n<p>Thanks for signing up!<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">A welcome email is on its way. If you don&#8217;t see it, please check your junk folder.<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page newsletter__feedback--last\">The next issue of Investor will soon be in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page js-submit-error\" style=\"margin-top: 8px\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitErrorFP_Investor\">We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment4795023390635008922189516456853504\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>While that\u2019s clearly not a good thing for anyone holding a long position on the loonie (now might be the time to trim exposure), and is an upside risk to aggregate inflation numbers (hurting import-reliant industries such as retailers), a weaker Canadian dollar is not all bad news.<\/p>\n<p>A cheaper loonie would improve Canadian competitiveness and could contribute to Canada working its way out of its current productivity growth and investment slump. Progress on competitiveness is desperately needed. Canada fell to 15th place in 2023 from 8th place in 2020 in the International Institute for Management Development\u2019s global competitiveness rankings, which are based on a comprehensive set of more than 300 efficiency indicators spanning the economy, trade, government, and infrastructure.<\/p>\n<p>Probably the most telling chart on Canadian competitiveness at present is the index of Canadian unit labour costs in U.S. dollar terms (that is, what one unit of output costs an investor who measures returns in U.S. dollars). That index hit a record high in 2023 (or at least equalled its 2012 peak) and is currently 34 per cent higher than it was in 2016. In other words, building production facilities in Canada or including the country in regional or global supply chains has become a lot less attractive to global (and especially U.S.) firms and investors.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_4\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment4535671359667058196670935119953920\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 4<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">The rise in the dollar price of Canadian unit labour costs is mostly down to a sharp drop in productivity, especially in the goods-producing sector. That kind of structural deterioration demands an offset in the form of a weaker currency to correct for the lower output of Canadian workers. That\u2019s why, in the short to medium term, a decline in the loonie could help the Canadian industry. Exports will benefit too, giving a direct boost to Canadian income.<\/p>\n<p>A weaker Canadian dollar also provides a cheaper entry point for inward investment (and discourages the outward flow of Canadian capital), while making Canadian labour more affordable in U.S. dollar terms.<\/p>\n<p>The only way to fix a productivity slump is through capital investment, which has been sorely lacking in Canada. Net direct investment (the inward flow of direct investment in Canada minus the outward flow of Canadian investment dollars) has become more and more negative over time; before the great financial crisis, the balance was positive. That trend needs to be reversed on both sides of the account, and the starting point is the competitiveness boost that a weaker Canadian dollar could deliver.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_5\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment5812086824846460532363465618096128\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 5<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-5\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"5\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-5\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel191186341379562245726676130463744\" class=\"more-topic\" data-aqa=\"embed-more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\">\n<p>Recommended from Editorial<\/p>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/><\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" was=\"\" once=\"\" productive=\"\" and=\"\" competitive=\"\" but=\"\" not=\"\" today=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Total factor productivity in Canada, under this current government in Ottawa, is now back to where it was a quarter-century ago, David Rosenberg says.\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=JxJLymZB1b0rogGdMA5GeA\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=R5gj1BTmQI-rPxMcnMOy7w&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=JxJLymZB1b0rogGdMA5GeA, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=zaNZC5M5SFvrfFiXQD_Q9A 2x,\n                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/trudeau-productivity-canada-1.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=Ga4r2t__2zy6_nmIGh-11g 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Canada was once productive and competitive, but not today<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" to=\"\" tiff=\"\" macklem:=\"\" don=\"\" make=\"\" mistake=\"\" in=\"\" other=\"\" direction=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=LsFKL_lz4Q-84Kd51cQeCA&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=LsFKL_lz4Q-84Kd51cQeCA&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=LsFKL_lz4Q-84Kd51cQeCA&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=LsFKL_lz4Q-84Kd51cQeCA&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=LsFKL_lz4Q-84Kd51cQeCA&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=LsFKL_lz4Q-84Kd51cQeCA&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=LsFKL_lz4Q-84Kd51cQeCA&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=LsFKL_lz4Q-84Kd51cQeCA&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=LsFKL_lz4Q-84Kd51cQeCA&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=LsFKL_lz4Q-84Kd51cQeCA&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=LsFKL_lz4Q-84Kd51cQeCA&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. The central bank's next decision is April 10. \" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=TIsQXS44lIXH8gcPXNEn-g\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=LsFKL_lz4Q-84Kd51cQeCA&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=TIsQXS44lIXH8gcPXNEn-g, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=FBX8_snAExn2JiBwb4nUgQ 2x,\n                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/bank-of-canada-0322-ph.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=Ao6FTOetFhkbG9xUkkzRFg 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Memo to Tiff Macklem: don\u2019t make mistake in other direction<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" of=\"\" canada=\"\" has=\"\" to=\"\" cut=\"\" rates=\"\" sooner=\"\" harder=\"\" than=\"\" fed=\"\" data-carousel-item=\"\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Canadian households are hunkering down and sharply reducing their appetite for debt.\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=wQBRVVcNFpoc6LeiR8e1-w\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=TUYy2dPZuzuTbszKAgmZgw&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=wQBRVVcNFpoc6LeiR8e1-w, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=ZkTglsGVoB6vew2yl7Maww 2x,\n                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/dollarama-0320-ph.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=0y0t2u0Jdn_p9aN1khrGGg 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Bank of Canada has to cut rates sooner, harder than Fed<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/><\/section>\n<p>Bottom line: We have been arguing aggressively for the Bank of Canada to lead the major central banks in easing tight monetary policy. The effect this will have on the loonie is an important transmission channel to the real economy.<\/p>\n<p>A weaker currency will come at the cost of some upside pressure on consumer prices (hopefully offset by falling shelter costs) and crimp retailer margins. But given the scale of the structural challenge faced by Canada\u2019s goods-producing industry, a weak dollar is not a thing to automatically fear.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><span class=\"TextRun SCXW38657048 BCX0\" data-contrast=\"auto\" lang=\"EN-CA\" xml:lang=\"EN-CA\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW38657048 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Emphasis\">Dylan Smith is a senior economist<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW38657048 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Emphasis\">\u00a0at independent research firm Rosenberg Research &amp; Associates Inc., founded by David Rosenberg. To receive more of David Rosenberg\u2019s insights and analysis, you can sign up for a complimentary, one-month trial on the Rosenberg Research\u202f<\/span><\/span><span class=\"TextRun Underlined SCXW38657048 BCX0\" data-contrast=\"none\" lang=\"EN-CA\" xml:lang=\"EN-CA\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW38657048 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Hyperlink\">website<\/span><\/span><span class=\"TextRun SCXW38657048 BCX0\" data-contrast=\"auto\" lang=\"EN-CA\" xml:lang=\"EN-CA\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW38657048 BCX0\" data-ccp-charstyle=\"Emphasis\">.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP SCXW38657048 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{\">\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\">\n<p>Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>Rosenberg: Diving Canadian dollar to create these winners, losers<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2024-04-04 13:43:15<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links News Investor Economy Rosenberg Research: A weak loonie is not a thing to automatically fear Published Apr 04, 2024 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Last updated 1\u00a0hour ago \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 4 minute&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":45581,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/canadian-dollar-1.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=QGJmP1NWgr1Jd105buNMZw","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45580\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/45581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}