{"id":40569,"date":"2023-11-10T16:44:13","date_gmt":"2023-11-10T16:44:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2023\/11\/10\/underestimating-immigration-is-skewing-canadas-data\/"},"modified":"2023-11-10T16:44:13","modified_gmt":"2023-11-10T16:44:13","slug":"underestimating-immigration-is-skewing-canadas-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2023\/11\/10\/underestimating-immigration-is-skewing-canadas-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Underestimating immigration is skewing Canada&#8217;s data"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><\/div><p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/p>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">Economy<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\">Underestimating population growth erodes reliability of readings on jobs, housing and productivity<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<p><span class=\"published-date__since\">Published Nov 10, 2023<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"updated-date__since\">Last updated 2\u00a0hours ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">4 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">Canada\u2019s population has become increasingly difficult to count, and the balance of evidence points toward an undercount of one million temporary residents in the country\u2019s main employment survey. <\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by Jack Boland\/Postmedia<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p><strong><em>By Dylan Smith and Atakan Bakiskan<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">A thoughtful approach to immigration has been a historical strength of Canadian economic policy. The recent post-COVID-19 immigration surge has created a number of well-known challenges, however, as slow-moving housing markets and social services systems adjust to the sudden rise in the country\u2019s population.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>But another, seemingly more basic, problem has arisen for policymakers and analysts alike: Canada\u2019s population has become increasingly difficult to count, and the balance of evidence points toward an undercount of one million temporary residents in the country\u2019s main employment survey. This has eroded the reliability of a host of market-relevant variables involving population counts, from employment figures to housing construction to productivity.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment9415576716149277835584518444023808\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 2<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[6,6],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"6x6\" data-ad-loc=\"2\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[6,6],[320,50],[300,50],[300,250],[300,600]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-2\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:600px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-block article-block-bg article-content__sign-in-group hidden\" data-aqa=\"identity-sign-in\" data-async=\"\" id=\"article-block\">\n<section class=\"row\">\n<header class=\"identity-intro col-xs-12 col-md-6 flex-justify-center\">\n<div class=\"col-xs-12 col-sm-10 col-md-10\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 75w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 100w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 150w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 240w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 320w, 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class=\"identity-intro__description\">Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O&#8217;Connor, Gabriel Friedman, Victoria Wells and others.<\/li>\n<li>Daily content from Financial Times, the world&#8217;s leading global business publication.<\/li>\n<li>Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.<\/li>\n<li>Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__register hidden\">\n<p>SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES<\/p>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O&#8217;Connor, Gabriel Friedman, Victoria Wells and others.<\/li>\n<li>Daily content from Financial Times, the world&#8217;s leading global business publication.<\/li>\n<li>Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.<\/li>\n<li>Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__anonymous\">\n<p>REGISTER TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES<\/p>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Access articles from across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month.<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p>After raising five-year immigration targets in the aftermath of the sharp drop in immigration in 2020 and 2021, the federal government last week announced immigration targets would be held at the current planned levels through 2026. Over the next three years, Canada will aim to bring in roughly 500,000 permanent residents per year (around 1.3 per cent of the 2022 population). This compares to a pre-COVID-19 target of 310,000, and 250,000 a decade ago.<\/p>\n<p>However, the policy leaves room for a large number of \u201cnewcomers\u201d beyond the permanent resident target. Sixty per cent of Canada\u2019s recent population growth over the past four quarters has come from temporary residents. It is this large and growing stock of temporary residents (workers and students on a host of non-permanent visas) that creates the population measurement challenge.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">The Labour Force Survey (LFS), a weighted sample of approximately 60,000 households, to take perhaps the most important example, only estimates 500,000 employed temporary workers. Administrative data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), however, show around 1.5 million employed temporary residents as of December 2022. That\u2019s a discrepancy of one million workers.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"js-widget-content article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--content-slot15 article-content__widget-group--newsletter-slot\">\n<section class=\"newsletter-widget__new-story-page fp-headlinenews background--primary-light-gradient\" aria-labelledby=\"FinancialPostTopStories6165569892027135672661218038906880\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-aqa=\"widget-newsletter\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_HeadlineNews\" data-widget=\"newsletter\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-new-story-page-template\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__header__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__banner__new-story-page\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 75w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 100w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 150w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 240w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 320w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 500w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 640w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 800w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 1024w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 1280w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg 1600w\" alt=\"Top Stories\" loading=\"lazy\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.8.3\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/icon-fp-topStories.svg\"\/><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Top Stories<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__body__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"js-replace-main__new-story-page\">\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__disclaimer__new-story-page text-size--tiny\">By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"js-submit-success\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitSuccessFP_HeadlineNews\">\n<p>Thanks for signing up!<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page\">A welcome email is on its way. If you don&#8217;t see it, please check your junk folder.<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page newsletter__feedback--last\">The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text__new-story-page js-submit-error\" style=\"margin-top: 8px\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitErrorFP_HeadlineNews\">We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment4131899741560265113173231111503872\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Although there are some reasons to think the IRCC data come with a slight upward bias (such as double counting individuals with both study and work permits), there is no question at all that the LFS numbers are heavily biased downward. This owes partly to ambiguous questions in the survey, and partly to a sampling methodology that simply underweights temporary residents due to low response rates (according to recent research from the C.D. Howe Institute).<\/p>\n<p>A similar issue arises between the Canadian census and the quarterly demographic estimates. According to the latest census, there were 925,000 non-permanent residents in 2021. However, the quarterly population data show that number to be 1.38 million, based on a new methodological update that corrects for those who stay in Canada after their permit expires.<\/p>\n<p>It is part of the unfortunate nature of mismeasurement and unreconciled data that we cannot precisely assess the errors in the related statistics, but we can at least attempt to match the best available measurements \u2014 with appropriate adjustments \u2014 to the analysis at hand. With this in mind, we highlight three areas where we can get a sense of the directionality of potential errors.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_4\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment7570820924387050455137516964020224\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 4<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<h2>Labour market<\/h2>\n<p>There is no reliable estimate of unemployment rates among temporary residents, and an accurate count could influence official unemployment in either direction. More importantly, skill mismatches between vacancies and the available labour force at the industry level cannot be properly assessed without accurate data.<\/p>\n<p>For this purpose, it is worth keeping in mind that mismatches are likely less severe than the LFS implies, meaning that wage pressure is probably lower than it seems at first glance.<\/p>\n<h2>Housing and construction<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) estimates 3.5 million new units must be built by 2030 to restore affordability in the housing market. But CMHC uses census data, not quarterly demographic estimates to arrive at this number.<\/p>\n<p>Since temporary residents need shelter, too, this is likely an undershoot, and housing construction will need to be even higher than estimated, with upward pressure on prices and rents in the absence of a large enough increase in the stock.<\/p>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel7956127251481859641467337552429056\" class=\"more-topic\" data-aqa=\"embed-more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\">\n<p>Related Stories<\/p>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/><\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Cu_KdTRO7W0w5DAN4yYjPA&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Cu_KdTRO7W0w5DAN4yYjPA&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Cu_KdTRO7W0w5DAN4yYjPA&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Cu_KdTRO7W0w5DAN4yYjPA&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Cu_KdTRO7W0w5DAN4yYjPA&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Cu_KdTRO7W0w5DAN4yYjPA&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Cu_KdTRO7W0w5DAN4yYjPA&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Cu_KdTRO7W0w5DAN4yYjPA&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Cu_KdTRO7W0w5DAN4yYjPA&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Cu_KdTRO7W0w5DAN4yYjPA&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Cu_KdTRO7W0w5DAN4yYjPA&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Markets are sensing a pause coming from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. \n\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=82F18kNTOpxAkneNv5uCNA\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Cu_KdTRO7W0w5DAN4yYjPA&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=82F18kNTOpxAkneNv5uCNA, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=nHmrEJIrTj-T4PaqLqzxzA 2x,\n                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/federal-reserve-1107-ph.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=1Y25u7QoCxfLBsbVeH3-nQ 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Get ready, the Fed has cause for a pause<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=9DfH372vFi2aqnF8wxfUmw&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=9DfH372vFi2aqnF8wxfUmw&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=9DfH372vFi2aqnF8wxfUmw&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=9DfH372vFi2aqnF8wxfUmw&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=9DfH372vFi2aqnF8wxfUmw&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=9DfH372vFi2aqnF8wxfUmw&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=9DfH372vFi2aqnF8wxfUmw&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=9DfH372vFi2aqnF8wxfUmw&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=9DfH372vFi2aqnF8wxfUmw&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=9DfH372vFi2aqnF8wxfUmw&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=9DfH372vFi2aqnF8wxfUmw&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"The recession will come in the next few quarters, not the next few years, says David Rosenberg. \" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=U7caXexWmQ7O8LHkjH3HRA\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=9DfH372vFi2aqnF8wxfUmw&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=U7caXexWmQ7O8LHkjH3HRA, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=-xduJIEvOC-fi7UXjBoR8A 2x,\n                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/recession-1023-ph.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=Z6cYeMW7tBMCJbRul9iVTA 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">The recession has been delayed, but it has not been derailed<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Fck16y-EH1ezkTJB5vhujA&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Fck16y-EH1ezkTJB5vhujA&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Fck16y-EH1ezkTJB5vhujA&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Fck16y-EH1ezkTJB5vhujA&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Fck16y-EH1ezkTJB5vhujA&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Fck16y-EH1ezkTJB5vhujA&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Fck16y-EH1ezkTJB5vhujA&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Fck16y-EH1ezkTJB5vhujA&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Fck16y-EH1ezkTJB5vhujA&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Fck16y-EH1ezkTJB5vhujA&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Fck16y-EH1ezkTJB5vhujA&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Banks, small caps and the equal-weighted S and P 500 were lagging so far behind when the market was rising sharply this year that it made it very difficult to believe the rally had legs, writes David Rosenberg.\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=tPGzpIxpQtLydwEVIoMrtQ\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=5&sig=Fck16y-EH1ezkTJB5vhujA&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=tPGzpIxpQtLydwEVIoMrtQ, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=C66nQxCmYrUrm6tz8WEEXw 2x,\n                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/fire-money-vw0927.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=kEJ3wTKYtvzT9HdSjlbiXQ 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">Investors and economists are playing with fire<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_5\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment9681617343089734514538935517970432\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 5<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-5\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"5\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-5\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<h2>Productivity<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Productivity is measured as real gross domestic product per hour worked. Basic hours worked data come from the LFS (supplemented by the census and various other sources for industry granularity), which, in turn, depends on the number of employed residents. Holding average hours and real GDP constant, adding an extra one million employees would reduce measured productivity in the third quarter by 4.6 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>Given that the employment undercount has built up over time, this means the decline in productivity over the last half-decade is likely even worse than it appears. This has a host of policy implications and suggests the neutral real interest rate is lower than models without such an adjustment would imply, with an obvious positive read-through to lower bond yields.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>Dylan Smith is a senior economist and Atakan Bakiskan is a economist at independent research firm Rosenberg Research &amp; Associates Inc. founded by David Rosenberg. To receive more of David Rosenberg\u2019s insights and analysis, you can sign up for a complimentary, one-month trial on the Rosenberg Research website.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\">\n<p>Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div aria-label=\"Article Comments\" class=\"article-content__widget-group article-comment\">\n<section class=\"comments__section\" data-aqa=\"viafoura-comments\" id=\"comments\">\n<p>Comments<\/p>\n<p class=\"comments__section-disclaimer\">Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications\u2014you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.<\/p>\n<details class=\"expansion-panel comments__section__list\" open=\"\">\n<summary class=\"expansion-panel__summary\"\/><\/details>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>Underestimating immigration is skewing Canada&#8217;s data<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2023-11-10 16:44:13<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links Economy Underestimating population growth erodes reliability of readings on jobs, housing and productivity Published Nov 10, 2023 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Last updated 2\u00a0hours ago \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 4 minute read Canada\u2019s&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":40570,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/immigration-canada-1110-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=lTyGNh2X7-MjOwJZIDCBdg","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40569\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/40570"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}