{"id":40298,"date":"2023-11-03T14:36:44","date_gmt":"2023-11-03T14:36:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2023\/11\/03\/job-gains-fall-short-what-economists-say\/"},"modified":"2023-11-03T14:36:44","modified_gmt":"2023-11-03T14:36:44","slug":"job-gains-fall-short-what-economists-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2023\/11\/03\/job-gains-fall-short-what-economists-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Job gains fall short: what economists say"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/p>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">News<\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\">Economy<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\">Latest report should leave Bank of Canada comfortable with decision to hold<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<p><span class=\"published-date__since\">Published Nov 03, 2023<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"updated-date__since\">Last updated 5\u00a0minutes ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">4 minute read<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/jobs-1104-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=X1pfSCmgX9ocuwx7vGTZ6Q,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/jobs-1104-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=vqm-N2pl_c38ouTvNfjMKA 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/jobs-1104-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=hYNMv7PqfFZ_VYC0nLoeow,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/jobs-1104-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=xuzKXTiFefOqp5E-YWgt4g 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/jobs-1104-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=kCsx658sPOoSrP4gr8iHVQ,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/jobs-1104-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=nVOg2WKrTAdX9auQk7lDyA 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/jobs-1104-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=S_M_hL8DQ_MnYhsKMEz0tQ,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/jobs-1104-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=jpg&amp;sig=xyK4C2jBw2yXK04MDklbyQ 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"><source media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/jobs-1104-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;h=216&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=2aZOiWjF6J3yKCWzUSMeEw,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/jobs-1104-ph.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;h=432&amp;type=webp&amp;sig=E3W7cMjjlMROctQSTPTVnw 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">Canada&#8217;s economy generated a net gain of 17,500 jobs, falling short of estimates of 25,000.<\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by Postmedia<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">October\u2019s jobs report will leave the Bank of Canada more \u201ccomfortable\u201d with its decision to hold interest rates at 5 per cent, economists say.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Statistics Canada\u2019s employment report on Nov. 3 showed the jobless rate jumped to 5.7 per cent from 5.5 per cent, higher than expected.\u00a0The economy generated a net gain of 17,500 jobs, falling short of estimates of 25,000.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment5545009447498151504004210191499264\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 2<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[6,6],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"6x6\" data-ad-loc=\"2\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[6,6],[320,50],[300,50],[300,250],[300,600]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-2\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:600px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-block article-block-bg 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up in the labour market, which should help ease some of the upside pressures on wages,\u201d said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central.<\/p>\n<p>Average hourly wages, which eased to a 4.8 per cent increase year over year from five per cent in September, will also be on the central bank\u2019s radar.<\/p>\n<p>These numbers are important because policy makers believe a tight and overheated jobs market and rising wages stoke demand and inflation.<\/p>\n<p>When it held rates on Oct. 25, the central bank said, \u201cGoverning Council wants to see downward momentum in core inflation, and continues to be focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Simon Harvey, head of currency analysis at Monex Europe and Canada, said the deceleration in wage growth \u201cshould translate into a continued decline in the BoC\u2019s measures of core inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s what economists say about the latest jobs numbers and what they mean for the Bank of Canada and interest rates.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"js-widget-content article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--content-slot19 article-content__widget-group--newsletter-slot\">\n<section class=\"newsletter-widget__new-story-page fp-headlinenews background--primary-light-gradient\" aria-labelledby=\"FinancialPostTopStories9439655119752526500065889493188608\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-aqa=\"widget-newsletter\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_HeadlineNews\" data-widget=\"newsletter\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-new-story-page-template\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__header__new-story-page\">\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__banner__new-story-page\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Top Stories\" loading=\"lazy\" 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Please try again<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment6190132913178669156508833540997120\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<h3>Andrew Grantham, CIBC Economics<\/h3>\n<p>\u201cWeakness in economic activity appears to be slowly filtering through to a softer labour market, with job growth slightly weaker and the unemployment rate marginally higher than expected in October . . . . Overall, today\u2019s report is further evidence that more rate hikes are not necessary to cool the economy, and combined with a weaker U.S. figure as well could see market expectations for interest rate cuts brought forward earlier into 2024.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3>Olivia Cross, Capital Economics<\/h3>\n<p>\u201cThe more modest rise in employment and essentially unchanged hours worked in October suggest that labour demand is easing gradually. And with the unemployment rate rising again thanks to strong labour supply growth, the Bank of Canada should feel more confident that wage pressures will continue to ease.\u201d<\/p>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel6969844837144564563021702874791936\" class=\"more-topic\" data-aqa=\"embed-more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\">\n<p>Related Stories<\/p>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/><\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Tiff-Macklem-gs1025-2.png?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=bmc_A-eIn3ua_yiQa54XuA\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Tiff-Macklem-gs1025-2.png?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=bmc_A-eIn3ua_yiQa54XuA, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Tiff-Macklem-gs1025-2.png?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=Q0s2gcK8Sfot7LQW1vZLQQ 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/nationalpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Tiff-Macklem-gs1025-2.png?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=nvsVHfQemL_ff6zHtSjX0Q 3x\" alt=\"None\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">When to expect a Bank of Canada rate cut<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\"> <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Canada's economy could be in a technical recession. &#10;\" data-src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/canada.jpeg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=XIiQj3LJHcXnyd7LzasGpQ\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/canada.jpeg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=5&amp;sig=RTubGgeXa5rvH9PcLm2pQQ\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/canada.jpeg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=XIiQj3LJHcXnyd7LzasGpQ, https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/canada.jpeg?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=ODuOfhb41zK78-XVPC1lAA 2x,&#10;                                             https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/canada.jpeg?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80&amp;sig=1v-eUgjbjOt50FYGU6b9Kg 3x\" class=\"lazyload\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<p><span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\">What the economists say about GDP<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/><\/section>\n<h3>James Orlando, TD Economic<\/h3>\n<p>\u201cWhen the Bank of Canada decided to hold rates at five per cent last week, it did so because of a notable slowing in economic momentum. While this has been apparent in reduced consumer spending and a weakening housing market, the labour market left the BoC wanting more. But, given the rise in the unemployment rate and continued weakening in the underlying details, today\u2019s report is likely to make the BoC feel more comfortable about its decision to hold. Looking forward, we are expecting this employment trend to continue, while high rates and persistent inflation make the case for the BoC to remain on hold in December.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_4\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment2762628151516562731922746647773184\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 4<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p>This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<h3>Charles St-Arnaud, Alberta Central<\/h3>\n<p>\u201cWith some progress made in October to create some slack in the labour market and slower wage growth, the likelihood of further rate hikes in the near future has diminished. Our view remains that the policy rate has likely peaked and that the Bank of Canada will stay on the sideline and watch previous rate increases work their way through the economic system and reduce inflationary pressures.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3>Nathan Janzen, RBC Economics<\/h3>\n<p>\u201cThe BoC will still be cautious about easing off on the monetary policy brakes while inflation is still high. But signs of softening in labour markets should reinforce the decision to pause rate hikes for now and increase the odds that the next rate change will (eventually) be a cut. Our own base-case assumes the overnight rate will begin to move gradually lower in the second half of next year.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3>Simon Harvey, head of currency analysis, Monex Europe and Canada<\/h3>\n<p>\u201cThe re-emergence of slack in the labour market is \u2026 starting to weigh on wage growth, which fell from 5.2 per cent to five per cent year over year (for permanent employees). This should translate into a continued decline in the BoC\u2019s measures of core inflation, which if confirmed would support our view that the BoC has now concluded its hiking cycle and will now rely on below potential growth in guiding inflation back to target. This moves the market\u2019s spotlight onto when the next change in policy will occur. In this case, that is an interest rate cut. In our view, the BoC is unlikely to ease before Q2 next year, but there is a risk that if growth conditions crater and lead to a more substantive unwind in the labour market, thus weighing on wage growth and the consumption outlook for 2024, that the BoC is forced to ease policy back to neutral as early as Q1.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3>Tu Nguyen, RSM Canada<\/h3>\n<p>\u201cCombined with GDP data earlier this week, October\u2019s job report show that the Bank of Canada\u2019s previous rate hikes are effectively cooling the economy, and no further rate hike would be required.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>\u2022 Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com<\/em><\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em><strong>Bookmark our website and support our journalism:<\/strong> Don\u2019t miss the business news you need to know \u2014 add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<p>Article content<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\">\n<p>Share this article in your social network<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div aria-label=\"Article Comments\" class=\"article-content__widget-group article-comment\">\n<section class=\"comments__section\" data-aqa=\"viafoura-comments\" id=\"comments\">\n<p>Comments<\/p>\n<p class=\"comments__section-disclaimer\">Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. 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Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.<\/p>\n<details class=\"expansion-panel comments__section__list\" open=\"\">\n<summary class=\"expansion-panel__summary\"\/><\/details>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>Job gains fall short: what economists say<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2023-11-03 14:36:44<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links News Economy Latest report should leave Bank of Canada comfortable with decision to hold Published Nov 03, 2023 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Last updated 5\u00a0minutes ago \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 4 minute read&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":40299,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40298\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/40299"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}