{"id":36649,"date":"2023-07-21T13:00:59","date_gmt":"2023-07-21T13:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2023\/07\/21\/u-s-recession-less-likley-say-some-economists\/"},"modified":"2023-07-21T13:00:59","modified_gmt":"2023-07-21T13:00:59","slug":"u-s-recession-less-likley-say-some-economists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2023\/07\/21\/u-s-recession-less-likley-say-some-economists\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. recession less likley say some economists"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><\/div><p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header article-header--story\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/h2>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\"> News <\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\"> Economy <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\"> GDP estimates revised higher in survey <\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<div class=\"wire-published-by\">\n<p class=\"visually-hidden\">Author of the article:<\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div class=\"wire-published-by__author-container\">\n<p> Bloomberg News <\/p>\n<p> Rich Miller, Molly Smith and Sarina Yoo <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n<p> <span class=\"published-date__since\">Published Jul 21, 2023<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"updated-date__since\">Last updated 7\u00a0hours ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">2 minute read<\/span> <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"A shopper in a grocery store in Miami\" class=\"featured-image__image type:primaryImage\" height=\"750\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=eIQZKCYpyEXxC2ga9SCtwA,\n                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-gs0721.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=576&h=432&sig=CWsxm5Cdm8gYcKzaeceDBA 2x\" width=\"1000\"\/><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\"> A shopper makes her way through a grocery store on July 12, 2023, in Miami. The U.S. consumer price index report showed that inflation fell to its lowest annual rate in more than two years during June.<\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by Joe Raedle\/Getty Images<\/span> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>Some of the forecasters who were first out of the box to predict a U.S. recession are starting to hedge their bets as inflation ebbs and the economy remains resilient.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_2\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment1729650875342999410386812775956480\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 2<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[6,6],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"6x6\" data-ad-loc=\"2\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[6,6],[320,50],[300,50],[300,250],[300,600]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-2\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:600px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article-block article-block-bg article-content__sign-in-group hidden\" data-aqa=\"identity-sign-in\" data-async=\"\" id=\"article-block\">\n<section class=\"row\">\n<header class=\"identity-intro col-xs-12 col-md-6 flex-justify-center\">\n<div class=\"col-xs-12 col-sm-10 col-md-10\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.0.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 75w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.0.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 100w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.0.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 150w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.0.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 240w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.0.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 320w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.0.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 500w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.0.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 640w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.0.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 800w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.0.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 1024w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.0.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 1280w, https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.0.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg 1600w\" alt=\"Financial Post\" class=\"market-logo\" height=\"37\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/dcs-static.gprod.postmedia.digital\/14.0.2\/websites\/images\/identity\/logo-identity-fp.svg\" width=\"280\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"intro-body__premium hidden\">\n<h2>THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY<\/h2>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Exclusive articles by Kevin Carmichael, Victoria Wells, Jake Edmiston, Gabriel Friedman and others.<\/li>\n<li>Daily content from Financial Times, the world&#8217;s leading global business publication.<\/li>\n<li>Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.<\/li>\n<li>Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__register hidden\">\n<h2>SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES<\/h2>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Exclusive articles by Kevin Carmichael, Victoria Wells, Jake Edmiston, Gabriel Friedman and others.<\/li>\n<li>Daily content from Financial Times, the world&#8217;s leading global business publication.<\/li>\n<li>Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.<\/li>\n<li>Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"intro-body__anonymous\">\n<h2>REGISTER TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES<\/h2>\n<p class=\"identity-intro__description\">Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list-unstyled list-checkmark\">\n<li>Access articles from across Canada with one account.<\/li>\n<li>Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.<\/li>\n<li>Enjoy additional articles per month.<\/li>\n<li>Get email updates from your favourite authors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/header>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>Deutsche Bank vice-chair of Research Peter Hooper and Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan now say it\u2019s essentially a toss-up whether the economy suffers a recession or enjoys a soft landing and keeps growing, though both still believe a downturn is more likely than not.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>Nomura Securities International senior economist Aichi Amemiya is also sticking by his firm\u2019s recession forecast, though he added, \u201cit\u2019s getting to be a close call.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The sentiment was echoed in Bloomberg\u2019s July survey of economists, in which estimates for gross domestic product were revised higher for the second and third quarter. However, forecasters still say there\u2019s a 60 per cent chance the U.S. will fall into recession in the next 12 months.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"js-widget-content article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--content-slot11 article-content__widget-group--newsletter-slot\">\n<section aria-labelledby=\"FinancialPostTopStories5185651753333382185419677464788992\" class=\"newsletter-widget fp-headlinenews background--primary-light-gradient\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-aqa=\"widget-newsletter\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_HeadlineNews\" data-widget=\"newsletter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/dcs-media\/images\/2023\/2\/3\/1675439373753-fp-topStories-signupBanner-01302023.jpg?ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/dcs-media\/images\/2023\/2\/3\/1675439373753-fp-topStories-signupBanner-01302023.jpg?ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/dcs-media\/images\/2023\/2\/3\/1675439373753-fp-topStories-signupBanner-01302023.jpg?ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/dcs-media\/images\/2023\/2\/3\/1675439373753-fp-topStories-signupBanner-01302023.jpg?ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/dcs-media\/images\/2023\/2\/3\/1675439373753-fp-topStories-signupBanner-01302023.jpg?ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/dcs-media\/images\/2023\/2\/3\/1675439373753-fp-topStories-signupBanner-01302023.jpg?ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/dcs-media\/images\/2023\/2\/3\/1675439373753-fp-topStories-signupBanner-01302023.jpg?ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/dcs-media\/images\/2023\/2\/3\/1675439373753-fp-topStories-signupBanner-01302023.jpg?ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/dcs-media\/images\/2023\/2\/3\/1675439373753-fp-topStories-signupBanner-01302023.jpg?ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/dcs-media\/images\/2023\/2\/3\/1675439373753-fp-topStories-signupBanner-01302023.jpg?ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/dcs-media\/images\/2023\/2\/3\/1675439373753-fp-topStories-signupBanner-01302023.jpg?ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Financial Post Top Stories Banner\" class=\"newsletter-widget__banner\" height=\"60\" loading=\"lazy\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/dcs-media\/images\/2023\/2\/3\/1675439373753-fp-topStories-signupBanner-01302023.jpg?ssl=1\" width=\"97\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__body\">\n<h2 class=\"newsletter-widget__title\" id=\"FinancialPostTopStories5185651753333382185419677464788992\">Financial Post Top Stories<\/h2>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text\">Sign up to receive the daily top stories from the Financial Post, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.<\/p>\n<div class=\"js-replace-main\">  <small class=\"newsletter-widget__disclaimer text-size--micro\"> By clicking on the sign up button you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. You may unsubscribe any time by clicking on the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our emails or any newsletter. Postmedia Network Inc. | 365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300 <\/small> <\/div>\n<div class=\"js-submit-success\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitSuccessFP_HeadlineNews\">\n<h3 class=\"newsletter__feedback--heading\">Thanks for signing up!<\/h3>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text\">A welcome email is on its way. If you don&#8217;t see it, please check your junk folder.<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text newsletter__feedback--last\">The next issue of Financial Post Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text js-submit-error\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitErrorFP_HeadlineNews\"> We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_3\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment1822347244867080779391545942999040\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 3<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>Duncan said housing starts and home prices have been stronger than expected, providing the economy with support. Amemiya also referenced the strength of new automobile sales.<\/p>\n<p>Paradoxically, Hooper credits the Federal Reserve\u2019s steep rate hiking campaign for the reduced risk of a recession. That\u2019s helped re-anchor inflation expectations, increasing the chances price pressures can ease without a meaningful decline in the economy.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\" data-aqa=\"embed-image\"><picture class=\"embedded-image__ratio\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"U.S. headline inflation\" class=\"embedded-image__image lazyload\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&sig=LTDne3_1E0teWJ41iUDk4A,\n                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/us-inflation-july-12.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=576&sig=W4dlUGlDUnd96VT-70DOQw 2x\" height=\"829\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1000\"\/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<p>Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are growing more optimistic as inflation cools. The personal consumption expenditures price index \u2014 the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation metric \u2014 is seen rising 2.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2024, according to the July survey. Last month, economists expected 2.3 per cent.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group ad_counter_4\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment5274091312987761458002551642259456\" class=\"ad\">\n<p>Advertisement 4<\/p>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PCE price index will likely moderate through the first half of next year by more than predicted last month. Economists also see the consumer price index (CPI) cooling faster through the end of next year.<\/p>\n<p>The survey of 73 economists, conducted from July 14-19, was taken just after the latest CPI report showed the U.S. inflation rate slid in June to a more than a two-year low. That prompted many traders to bet that next week\u2019s expected interest-rate hike by the Fed will be the last of this cycle.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Fed is likely to skip September after a July hike. The next opportunity in November will likely take place against the background of a recession, as real rates become more restrictive,\u201d Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank, said in a survey response. \u201cTherefore, we do not expect the second hike in the dot plot to materialize.\u201d<\/p>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel4698251396512458393148740327178240\" class=\"more-topic\" data-aqa=\"embed-more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\"> <button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/> <\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\">  <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.\" class=\"lazyload\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g&ssl=1\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=h-GiUBEMZ75OxN3t_mUb_g,\n                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=obnIjOqy-A1ZTDibLKrNxA 2x,\n                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/jerome-powell-vw0620.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=sC8vPaZxCCESV_1y05rxdw 3x\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<h3 class=\"more-topic__item-text\"> <span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\"> Traders fully convinced of another Fed rate hike next week <\/span> <\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\">  <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks during a press conference ahead of the G20 Finance Ministers meetings, at the Mahatma Mandir in Gandhinagar, India, on July 16, 2023.\" class=\"lazyload\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA&ssl=1\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&sig=dAR4ffSL7TO368Wjybq_PA,\n                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=192&strip=all&quality=80&sig=rAiXjFrJUP2j2q4BGCnIoQ 2x,\n                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/jante-yellen-gs0717.png?h=288&strip=all&quality=80&sig=v8Ovzd_3Z77NopEJEhCV5Q 3x\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<h3 class=\"more-topic__item-text\"> <span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\"> China slowdown could spill over, but Yellen doesn&#8217;t expect recession <\/span> <\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/> <\/section>\n<p>Economists in the survey also now expect fewer rate cuts from the Fed next year.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Bloomberg.com<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group article-content__content-group--story\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt=\"beforeunload\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Share this article in your social network<\/h2>\n<\/section>\n<div aria-label=\"Article Comments\" class=\"article-content__widget-group article-comment\">\n<section class=\"comments__section\" data-aqa=\"viafoura-comments\" id=\"comments\">\n<h3 class=\"widget-title comments-anchor\" id=\"comments-area\">Comments<\/h3>\n<p class=\"comments__section-disclaimer\"> Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications\u2014you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings. <\/p>\n<details class=\"expansion-panel comments__section__list\">\n<summary class=\"expansion-panel__summary\">\n<h4 class=\"expansion-panel__summary-label\"> <span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"article-card__comment-icon\"> <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" fill=\"none\" height=\"16\" viewbox=\"0 0 20 20\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M19.99 2C19.99 0.9 19.1 0 18 0H2C0.9 0 0 0.9 0 2V14C0 15.1 0.9 16 2 16H16L20 20L19.99 2Z\" fill=\"#555555\"\/><\/svg><\/span> <span>Join the Conversation<\/span> <\/h4>\n<\/summary>\n<\/details>\n<\/section>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n<br \/>U.S. recession less likley say some economists<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2023-07-21 13:00:59<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links News Economy GDP estimates revised higher in survey Author of the article: Bloomberg News Rich Miller, Molly Smith and Sarina Yoo Published Jul 21, 2023 \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 Last&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":36650,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2c61c569c35df1bfebdf8601ae03b90f?s=70&d=mp","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36649"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36649\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/36650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}