{"id":27442,"date":"2022-10-28T14:25:35","date_gmt":"2022-10-28T14:25:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2022\/10\/28\/canadas-housing-bubble-has-burst-david-rosenberg\/"},"modified":"2022-10-28T14:25:35","modified_gmt":"2022-10-28T14:25:35","slug":"canadas-housing-bubble-has-burst-david-rosenberg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2022\/10\/28\/canadas-housing-bubble-has-burst-david-rosenberg\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada\u2019s housing bubble has burst: David Rosenberg"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><\/div><p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header\">\n<div class=\"sponsored-meta sponsored-meta--story\" data-aqa=\"sponsorship\">\n<div class=\"sponsored-meta-content\">\n<div class=\"sponsored-meta-content-text\"> This section is <\/p>\n<div class=\"popover\" data-aqa=\"popover\" data-click-to-appear=\"True\" data-container=\"\" data-container-offset=\"\" data-popover-component=\"\" data-position=\"\"> <button class=\"popover__trigger\"> <span class=\"popover__text\"> Presented <\/span> <\/button> <\/p>\n<div aria-describedby=\"popover-desc-sponsored-popup\" class=\"popover__content\" hidden=\"\" role=\"dialog\">\n<div class=\"popover__content__wrapper\">\n<p> This section was produced by the editorial department. The client was not given the opportunity to put restrictions on the content or review it prior to publication. <\/p>\n<p> <button class=\"popover__content__close\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"Close\"> <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" class=\"icon--close\" height=\"12\" version=\"1.1\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\" width=\"12\"><polygon points=\"12 0.95 11.05 0 6 5.05 0.95 0 0 0.95 5.05 6 0 11.05 0.95 12 6 6.95 11.05 12 12 11.05 6.95 6\"\/><\/svg><\/button> <\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<p> by  HSBC  <\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"sponsored-meta-content-logo-container\">   <\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\" data-aqa=\"nav-breadcrumb\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/h2>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\"> Real Estate <\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\"> News <\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\"> Economy <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<div class=\"article-header__detail\">\n<div class=\"article-header__detail__texts\">\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\"> The upcoming recession could be deeper than what Bay Street folks are expecting <\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<div class=\"published-date\">\n<p>Publishing date:<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"published-date__since\">Oct 28, 2022<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"updated-date__since\">2\u00a0hours ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">3 minute read<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span>  <span class=\"comment-bubble\"> <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" height=\"16\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M4,0 C2.93914,0 1.921718,0.421428 1.171572,1.171572 C0.421428,1.921718 0,2.93914 0,4 L0,24 L3.846,20.158 L4,20.16 L20,20.16 C21.0608,20.16 22.0782,19.73858 22.8284,18.98842 C23.5786,18.23828 24,17.22086 24,16.16 L24,4 C24,2.93914 23.5786,1.921718 22.8284,1.171572 C22.0782,0.421428 21.0608,0 20,0 L4,0 Z M2,4 C2,3.46956 2.21072,2.96086 2.58578,2.58578 C2.96086,2.21072 3.46956,2 4,2 L20,2 C20.5304,2 21.0392,2.21072 21.4142,2.58578 C21.7892,2.96086 22,3.46956 22,4 L22,16.16 C22,16.69044 21.7892,17.19914 21.4142,17.57422 C21.0392,17.94928 20.5304,18.16 20,18.16 L4,18.16 L3.048,18.126 L2,19.174 L2,4 Z\"\/><\/svg><\/span> <span class=\"article-meta-comment-count__text\"> 7 Comments <\/span>  <\/span> <\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\" data-aqa=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Canadian home prices are now down nine per cent from their peak en route to a 30 per cent or so decline, says David Rosenberg.\" class=\"featured-image__image type:primaryImage\" height=\"750\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216,\n                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/home-prices-1028-ph.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=576&h=432 2x\" width=\"1000\"\/><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">Canadian home prices are now down nine per cent from their peak en route to a 30 per cent or so decline, says David Rosenberg. <\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by Tyler Anderson<\/span> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p><em><strong>By David Rosenberg and Alena Neiland<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment5503152001256175646179901766512432\" class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\" id=\"advertisment5503152001256175646179901766512432\">Advertisement 2<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[6,6],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"6x6\" data-ad-loc=\"2\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[6,6],[320,50],[300,50],[300,250],[300,600]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-2\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:600px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>Canada\u2019s housing bubble has burst. The MLS house price index is now down nine per cent from last February\u2019s peak en route to a 30 per cent or so decline, which we view as consistent with deteriorating affordability and the uber-aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Canada.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--content-slot6 article-content__widget-group--newsletter-slot\">\n<section aria-labelledby=\"FinancialPostTopStories7765981833284921776807726242842105\" class=\"newsletter-widget fp-headlinenews background--primary-light-gradient\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-aqa=\"widget-newsletter\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_HeadlineNews\" data-widget=\"newsletter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/FPTopStories-06232021.jpg?ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/FPTopStories-06232021.jpg?ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/FPTopStories-06232021.jpg?ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/FPTopStories-06232021.jpg?ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/FPTopStories-06232021.jpg?ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/FPTopStories-06232021.jpg?ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/FPTopStories-06232021.jpg?ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/FPTopStories-06232021.jpg?ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/FPTopStories-06232021.jpg?ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/FPTopStories-06232021.jpg?ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/FPTopStories-06232021.jpg?ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Financial Post Top Stories Banner\" class=\"newsletter-widget__banner\" height=\"60\" loading=\"lazy\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/FPTopStories-06232021.jpg?ssl=1\" width=\"97\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__body\">\n<h2 class=\"newsletter-widget__title\" id=\"FinancialPostTopStories7765981833284921776807726242842105\">Financial Post Top Stories<\/h2>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text\">Sign up to receive the daily top stories from the Financial Post, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.<\/p>\n<div class=\"js-replace-main\">  <small class=\"newsletter-widget__disclaimer text-size--micro\"> By clicking on the sign up button you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. You may unsubscribe any time by clicking on the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our emails. Postmedia Network Inc. | 365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4 | 416-383-2300 <\/small> <\/div>\n<div class=\"js-submit-success\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitSuccessFP_HeadlineNews\">\n<h3 class=\"newsletter__feedback--heading\">Thanks for signing up!<\/h3>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text\">A welcome email is on its way. If you don&#8217;t see it, please check your junk folder.<\/p>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text newsletter__feedback--last\">The next issue of Financial Post Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text js-submit-error\" hidden=\"\" id=\"submitErrorFP_HeadlineNews\"> We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>We estimate the negative wealth effect associated with such a price slump will pull down gross domestic (GDP) growth by about 2.5 percentage points. Add to this the deleveraging effect of higher interest rates on consumption and investment, and the hit to trade from the expected downturn in the United States and global economy, and it\u2019s not difficult to see why Canada\u2019s upcoming recession could be deeper than what Bay Street folks are expecting.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment209041839173746799027281005616063\" class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\" id=\"advertisment209041839173746799027281005616063\">Advertisement 3<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<blockquote class=\"\">\n<p>The last time all these factors were at play was the early 1990s, when Canada entered a Bank of Canada-induced recession<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Individuals spend more when the value of their assets (for example, equities and houses) rises because they feel they are getting wealthier. This occurs through several channels: there is a behavioural aspect that translates into spending more of one\u2019s earned disposable income, as well as an increase in credit access, a theme that has dominated in the face of persistently low borrowing costs over the past decade-plus. As homeowners continue to make regular payments on their mortgages, their credit scores improve, making them better candidates to pile on more debt.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>But with the Bank of Canada\u2019s overnight target rate having risen 350 basis points since March (with more to go), the theme of rising wealth is bound to fade as credit access dries up and real estate prices collapse. The MLS house price index is already down nine per cent from last February\u2019s peak and the correction is far from over.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment6108050455244040752840304972206934\" class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\" id=\"advertisment6108050455244040752840304972206934\">Advertisement 4<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>Households are being hit with a confluence of factors heading into this recession: rapid restrictions on credit access, higher debt-servicing costs on near-record-high household debt levels and inflation limiting disposable income. This is all being compounded by wealth depletion in both equity and residential markets, which also weigh on sentiment.<\/p>\n<p>The last time all these factors were at play was the early 1990s, when Canada entered a Bank of Canada-induced recession and residential property prices fell by almost 30 per cent from their peak between 1989-1996.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"\">\n<p>This housing drawdown is just getting started<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>While consumption is set to slow because of the multitude of factors mentioned above, the wealth effect will also contribute negatively. If home prices end up falling 30 per cent from the peak \u2014 which we view as consistent with deteriorating affordability and the uber-aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Canada \u2014 consumption would fall about five per cent (using the central bank\u2019s estimate of nearly six cents per dollar of marginal propensity to consume due to changes in housing wealth), and this translates to a hit of roughly 2.5 percentage points to annual GDP growth.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment4185228552816337077318145193533348\" class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\" id=\"advertisment4185228552816337077318145193533348\">Advertisement 5<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-5\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"5\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-5\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>Even if you assume Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is right about a more modest 15-per-cent peak-to-trough decline in home prices, the GDP hit from the wealth effect will be around 1.3 percentage points, which is still significant. Worse, there is reason to believe the overall economic impacts will be further skewed to the downside, because this analysis does not even consider the deleveraging effects of higher interest rates on consumption and investment.<\/p>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel9294259021062898314843826825824270\" class=\"more-topic\" data-aqa=\"embed-more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\"> <button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/> <\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\">  <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"A group of tourists walk past a temple in Thailand. The country is among countries investors may want to focus on.\" class=\"lazyload\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80,\n                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80 2x,\n                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/thailand-vw1025.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80 3x\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<h3 class=\"more-topic__item-text\"> <span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\"> David Rosenberg: These economies are best positioned to withstand rising interest rates <\/span> <\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\">  <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"Pedestrians walk past stock market numbers in Toronto's Financial district in September.\" class=\"lazyload\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80,\n                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80 2x,\n                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/stock-market-vw1004.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80 3x\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<h3 class=\"more-topic__item-text\"> <span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\"> David Rosenberg: Equities are generally not pricing in a recession yet, but one asset class is <\/span> <\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\">  <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has hiked interest rates aggressively, just about the most on record in a short period.\" class=\"lazyload\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80&ssl=1\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=96&strip=all&quality=80,\n                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=192&strip=all&quality=80 2x,\n                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/jerome-powell-0927-ph.jpg?h=288&strip=all&quality=80 3x\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<h3 class=\"more-topic__item-text\"> <span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\"> David Rosenberg: Make no mistake, the Fed is guiding us into a credit crunch <\/span> <\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/> <\/section>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment517536789457069611400459632963657\" class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\" id=\"advertisment517536789457069611400459632963657\">Advertisement 6<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-6\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"6\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-6\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>While acknowledging the housing-induced negative wealth (albeit not necessarily the extent), the Bank of Canada is not about to drop its hawkish stance amid still-hot and above-target inflation. With further policy tightening in the pipeline, the overnight swap market is now pricing a peak rate of 4.25 per cent by year-end, so this housing drawdown is just getting started. And given consumers\u2019 sensitivity to the pullback in real estate prices, Canada\u2019s recession is likely to be deeper than what many Bay Street types are expecting.<\/p>\n<p>As such, the Canadian dollar is bound to have many more months and quarters of weakness and not just because of the bear market in commodities, but also because of the serious repercussions surrounding the economic outlook from the escalating weakness in home values and the multiplier impacts on the consumer broadly speaking.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>David Rosenberg is founder of independent research firm Rosenberg Research &amp; Associates Inc. Alena Neiland is an econoimist there. You can sign up for a free, one-month trial on Rosenberg\u2019s website.<\/em><\/p>\n<p> <iframe loading=\"lazy\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"1200\" id=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/modules.wearehearken.com\/financial-post\/embed\/9439\/share\" style=\"--height: 1200px; \" width=\"\"><\/iframe> <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt=\"beforeunload\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Share this article in your social network<\/h2>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"article-content__ad-group\">\n<div class=\"ad__section-border ad__section-border--category visually-hidden\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment35497733148785838139064931050072\" class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\" id=\"advertisment35497733148785838139064931050072\">Advertisement <\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-acceptable\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-acceptable=\"\" data-ad-loc=\"1\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" data-aqa=\"advertisement\" id=\"ad-acceptable\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<footer aria-label=\"Article Comments\" class=\"article-footer\">\n<section class=\"comments__section\" data-aqa=\"viafoura-comments\" id=\"comments\">\n<h3 class=\"widget-title comments-anchor\" id=\"comments-area\">Comments<\/h3>\n<p class=\"comments__section-disclaimer\"> Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications\u2014you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings. <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/footer>\n<\/div>\n\n<br \/>Canada\u2019s housing bubble has burst: David Rosenberg<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2022-10-28 14:25:35<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This section is Presented This section was produced by the editorial department. 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