{"id":21180,"date":"2022-04-29T14:56:14","date_gmt":"2022-04-29T14:56:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2022\/04\/29\/canadas-economy-poised-to-grow-in-the-first-quarter-dodging-americas-fate\/"},"modified":"2022-04-29T14:56:14","modified_gmt":"2022-04-29T14:56:14","slug":"canadas-economy-poised-to-grow-in-the-first-quarter-dodging-americas-fate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2022\/04\/29\/canadas-economy-poised-to-grow-in-the-first-quarter-dodging-americas-fate\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada&#8217;s economy poised to grow in the first quarter, dodging America&#8217;s fate"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align:center\"><\/div><p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/h2>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\"> News <\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\"> FP Economy <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\"> Latest growth numbers just support the case for larger Bank of Canada hike <\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<div class=\"published-date\">\n<p>Publishing date:<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"published-date__since\">Apr 29, 2022<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"updated-date__since\">10\u00a0minutes ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">3 minute read<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span>  <span class=\"comment-bubble\"> <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" height=\"16\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M4,0 C2.93914,0 1.921718,0.421428 1.171572,1.171572 C0.421428,1.921718 0,2.93914 0,4 L0,24 L3.846,20.158 L4,20.16 L20,20.16 C21.0608,20.16 22.0782,19.73858 22.8284,18.98842 C23.5786,18.23828 24,17.22086 24,16.16 L24,4 C24,2.93914 23.5786,1.921718 22.8284,1.171572 C22.0782,0.421428 21.0608,0 20,0 L4,0 Z M2,4 C2,3.46956 2.21072,2.96086 2.58578,2.58578 C2.96086,2.21072 3.46956,2 4,2 L20,2 C20.5304,2 21.0392,2.21072 21.4142,2.58578 C21.7892,2.96086 22,3.46956 22,4 L22,16.16 C22,16.69044 21.7892,17.19914 21.4142,17.57422 C21.0392,17.94928 20.5304,18.16 20,18.16 L4,18.16 L3.048,18.126 L2,19.174 L2,4 Z\"\/><\/svg><\/span> 9 Comments  <\/span> <\/div><\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">Canada&#8217;s economy grew by 1.1 per cent in February from the month before, the largest growth rate in almost a year, Statistics Canada said Friday. <\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by Cole Burston\/Bloomberg<\/span> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>Canada will face growing economic headwinds with considerable momentum.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment9040921461300747847938993552547759\" class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\" id=\"advertisment9040921461300747847938993552547759\">Advertisement 2<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[6,6],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"6x6\" data-ad-loc=\"2\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[6,6],[320,50],[300,50],[300,250],[300,600]]\" id=\"ad-2\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:600px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">Statistics Canada reported April 29 that gross domestic product grew 1.1 per cent in February, and the agency estimated the economy likely expanded 0.5 per cent in March, suggesting Canada pushed through the Omicron wave with relative ease.<\/p>\n<p>That wasn\u2019t a given at the end of last year. Many assumed strict health restrictions in Ontario and Quebec over the winter months would kill economic activity, as they had at previous times during the pandemic. The Bank of Canada citied uncertainty over COVID-19 as one of the reasons it opted against raising interest rates in January, even though inflation had surged well above the high end of its comfort zone.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Now, the strength of Canada\u2019s economy is giving the central bank reason to accelerate interest-rate increases. Policymakers said earlier this month that GDP likely expanded at an annual rate of three per cent in the first quarter, compared with a January estimate of two per cent. Statistics Canada\u2019s monthly tallies of economic output are calculated differently than its quarterly assessments, but the former generally aligns with the latter. GDP grew about 0.5 per cent from December to January, suggesting the quarterly rate of growth will exceed five per cent, economists said.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment5302386725903491405357228298361148\" class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\" id=\"advertisment5302386725903491405357228298361148\">Advertisement 3<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>\u201cToday\u2019s GDP report reinforces the view that the momentum in Canada\u2019s economy is unrelenting,\u201d Toronto-Dominion Bank\u2019s James Orlando said in a note. \u201cCompared to our neighbour to the south and our global peers, Canada is clearly outperforming.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure class=\"embedded-image\"><picture class=\"embedded-image__ratio\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==\" fifu-lazy=\"1\" fifu-data-sizes=\"auto\" fifu-data-srcset=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&ssl=1&w=75&resize=75&ssl=1 75w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&ssl=1&w=100&resize=100&ssl=1 100w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&ssl=1&w=150&resize=150&ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&ssl=1&w=240&resize=240&ssl=1 240w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&ssl=1&w=320&resize=320&ssl=1 320w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&ssl=1&w=500&resize=500&ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&ssl=1&w=640&resize=640&ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&ssl=1&w=800&resize=800&ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&ssl=1&w=1024&resize=1024&ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&ssl=1&w=1280&resize=1280&ssl=1 1280w, https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&ssl=1&w=1600&resize=1600&ssl=1 1600w\" alt=\"\" class=\"embedded-image__image lazyload\" fifu-data-src=\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&ssl=1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288,\n                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/monthly-gdp-february.jpeg?quality=90&strip=all&w=576 2x\" height=\"743\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1000\"\/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<p data-async=\"\">Indeed, the first of three estimates of U.S. first-quarter growth by the Commerce Department this week showed the world\u2019s largest economy shrank at an annual rate of 1.4 per cent, surprising most Wall Street forecasters, who were expecting an increase. Canadian bond yields rose after the Canadian numbers were released, suggesting investors anticipate evidence of stronger growth will keep pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise its benchmark rate at a relatively aggressive pace as it tries to catch up to inflation.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment3879147656326629840284165108546838\" class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\" id=\"advertisment3879147656326629840284165108546838\">Advertisement 4<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">\u201cPressure continues to build for the Bank of Canada to ease off the monetary policy accelerator more rapidly,\u201d Claire Fan, an economist at Royal Bank fo Canada, advised her clients, adding that a second consecutive half-point increase is \u201clooking increasingly likely\u201d at the central bank\u2019s next policy announcement on June 1.<\/p>\n<p>GDP got a lift from predictable sources. Restaurants and hotels led the way, as the lifting of health restrictions led to a 15-per-cent increase in output by the food and accommodation industry, Statistics Canada said. Oil producer and miners posted a 3.4-per-cent gain, the biggest since the end of 2020, as companies benefited from increased demand and higher prices. Construction and \u201ccomputer systems design,\u201d a proxy for the digital technology industry, also posted notable increases.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group\">\n<section aria-describedby=\"advertisment719558026874959934990892031039782\" class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\" id=\"advertisment719558026874959934990892031039782\">Advertisement 5<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-5\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"5\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" id=\"ad-5\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p data-async=\"\">The surprising momentum could be tested in the months ahead, as a growing number of signals suggest global inflation, ongoing supply disruptions, and uncertainty over the war in Ukraine could slow the recovery from the COVID recession. Amazon.com Inc. said April 28 that it had downgraded its outlook amid rising costs and weaker demand for the goods it sells online. And Macklem indicated in parliamentary testimony this week that he\u2019s wary of what recent COVID lockdowns in China portend for global growth and supply-side inflation.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\">Indeed, it isn\u2019t difficult to find economists who think Canada and other big economies are setting up for another recession. But such speculation won\u2019t stop the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates in the short term, as Macklem told lawmakers that he and his deputies will be considering another half-point increase when they next gather to decide on the setting for the benchmark rate.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Canadian economy is in good shape,\u201d Macklem told the House finance committee on April 25. \u201cIt can handle higher interest rates. It needs higher interest rates.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>\u2022 Email: kcarmichael@postmedia.com | Twitter: <a class=\"\u201ctwitter-follow-button\u201d\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" link=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/carmichaelkevin\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">carmichaelkevin<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>_____________________________________________________________<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><strong><em>\u00a0We\u2019re introducing FP Answers, a new initiative at the Financial Post where readers ask the questions and we find the answers. 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Please try again <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<footer aria-label=\"Article Comments\" class=\"article-footer\">\n<section class=\"comments__section\" id=\"comments\">\n<h3 class=\"widget-title comments-anchor\" id=\"comments-area\">Comments<\/h3>\n<p class=\"comments__section-disclaimer\"> Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications\u2014you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. 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