{"id":19059,"date":"2022-02-28T18:13:07","date_gmt":"2022-02-28T18:13:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2022\/02\/28\/worst-case-world-war-iii-and-i-am-not-being-hyperbolic-david-rosenberg\/"},"modified":"2022-02-28T18:13:07","modified_gmt":"2022-02-28T18:13:07","slug":"worst-case-world-war-iii-and-i-am-not-being-hyperbolic-david-rosenberg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/2022\/02\/28\/worst-case-world-war-iii-and-i-am-not-being-hyperbolic-david-rosenberg\/","title":{"rendered":"Worst-case \u2014 &#8216;World War III and I am not being hyperbolic&#8217;: David Rosenberg"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> \n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<header aria-label=\"Beginning of Article\" class=\"article-header\">\n<nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Breadcrumb Trail Links<\/h2>\n<ol class=\"breadcrumbs__items list-unstyled\">\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\"> News <\/li>\n<li class=\"breadcrumbs__item\"> FP Economy <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/nav>\n<p class=\"article-subtitle\"> Kevin Carmichael: The future the economist paints is dark, but it&#8217;s within what now counts as the realm of possibility <\/p>\n<div class=\"article-meta\">\n<div class=\"published-date\">\n<p>Publishing date:<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"published-date__since\">Feb 28, 2022<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"updated-date__since\">36\u00a0minutes ago<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span class=\"published-date__word-count\">2 minute read<\/span> \u00a0\u2022\u00a0 <span>  <span class=\"comment-bubble\"> <svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" height=\"16\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M4,0 C2.93914,0 1.921718,0.421428 1.171572,1.171572 C0.421428,1.921718 0,2.93914 0,4 L0,24 L3.846,20.158 L4,20.16 L20,20.16 C21.0608,20.16 22.0782,19.73858 22.8284,18.98842 C23.5786,18.23828 24,17.22086 24,16.16 L24,4 C24,2.93914 23.5786,1.921718 22.8284,1.171572 C22.0782,0.421428 21.0608,0 20,0 L4,0 Z M2,4 C2,3.46956 2.21072,2.96086 2.58578,2.58578 C2.96086,2.21072 3.46956,2 4,2 L20,2 C20.5304,2 21.0392,2.21072 21.4142,2.58578 C21.7892,2.96086 22,3.46956 22,4 L22,16.16 C22,16.69044 21.7892,17.19914 21.4142,17.57422 C21.0392,17.94928 20.5304,18.16 20,18.16 L4,18.16 L3.048,18.126 L2,19.174 L2,4 Z\"\/><\/svg><\/span> Join the conversation  <\/span> <\/div><\/div>\n<figure class=\"featured-image\"><picture class=\"featured-image__ratio\"><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-3-0228.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=webp,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-3-0228.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=webp 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"\/><source media=\"(min-width: 1200px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-3-0228.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=564&amp;h=423&amp;type=jpg,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-3-0228.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=1128&amp;h=846&amp;type=jpg 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"\/><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-3-0228.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=webp,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-3-0228.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=webp 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"\/><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-3-0228.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=472&amp;h=354&amp;type=jpg,&#10;                https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-3-0228.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=944&amp;h=708&amp;type=jpg 2x\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"\/><source media=\"(max-width: 767px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-3-0228.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=288&amp;h=216&amp;type=webp,&#10;            https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-3-0228.jpg?quality=90&amp;strip=all&amp;w=576&amp;h=432&amp;type=webp 2x\" type=\"image\/webp\"\/><\/picture><figcaption class=\"featured-image__caption image-caption\"><span class=\"caption\">An Ukrainian Territorial Defence fighter examines a destroyed Russian infantry mobility vehicle GAZ Tigr after the fight in Kharkiv on Sunday. Russian artillery bombarded residential districts of Ukraine&#8217;s second largest city today, killing possibly dozens of people, Ukrainian officials said. <\/span> <span class=\"credit\">Photo by SERGEY BOBOK\/AFP via Getty Images<\/span> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>\u201cBreakfast with Dave\u201d wasn\u2019t a lot of fun this morning.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group\">\n<section class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Advertisement<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-2\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[6,6],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"6x6\" data-ad-loc=\"2\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[6,6],[320,50],[300,50],[300,250],[300,600]]\" id=\"ad-2\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:600px\">\n<div class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>Bay Street economist David Rosenberg used his widely read morning newsletter to set out his worst-case scenario for where the Ukraine conflict might lead: \u201cIt involves a World War III, and I am not being hyperbolic,\u201d wrote the occasionally hyperbolic analyst.<\/p>\n<p>To be clear, a global conflagration isn\u2019t necessarily the bet on which Rosenberg would put his money. His best-case scenario is a diplomatic resolution, which is still probably the more likely outcome.<\/p>\n<p>But if we\u2019ve learned anything over the past couple of years, it\u2019s the folly of banking on best-case scenarios. The future Rosenberg painted was dark, but within what now counts as the realm of possibility. What if Ukraine was Putin\u2019s first move, and not his endgame? If he is motivated by rebuilding the Soviet Union, why would he stop there? The next step would be assembling Russian soldiers on the borders of another neighbour, and then daring the democratic powers to stop him.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group\">\n<section class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Advertisement<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-3\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[7,7],[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-interscroller=\"7x7\" data-ad-loc=\"3\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[7,7],[300,250],[320,50],[300,50]]\" id=\"ad-3\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<p>Will NATO really defend Estonia, for example?\u201d Rosenberg wrote. \u201cWill soldiers from Western Europe give their lives to protect the Baltic countries, Poland, etc.? NATO says it will, but NATO is composed of countries who are still bickering over sanctions. What will happen when they have to man the front lines?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Rosenberg\u2019s worst-case scenario then sees China going for Taiwan, North Korea testing South Korea\u2019s resolve; and Iran, newly empowered by US$100 oil, baiting Israel and its other rivals in the Middle East. Rosenberg\u2019s assessment of history is that Winston Churchill stood up to stop Hitler\u2019s advance. He doesn\u2019t see such a leader today. \u201cNobody like that exists, and all the world\u2019s strongmen, with all their own grievances, know it too,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ad__section-border article-content__ad-group\">\n<section class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Advertisement<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-4\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-loc=\"4\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" id=\"ad-4\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"article-content__content-group\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Article content<\/h2>\n<section aria-labelledby=\"moreTopicLabel6342241995589696042835214355909673\" class=\"more-topic\" data-carousel-component=\"\" data-carousel-icon-button=\"\" data-carousel-type=\"list\"> <button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-prev\" data-carousel-prev=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"previous\" type=\"button\"\/> <\/p>\n<ol class=\"more-topic__items list-unstyled\" data-carousel-slide-list=\"\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\">  <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Smoke rises from a power plant after shelling outside the town of Schastia, near the eastern Ukraine city of Lugansk.&#10;\" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-5-0224.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-5-0224.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80,&#10;                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-5-0224.jpg?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80 2x,&#10;                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/ukraine-5-0224.jpg?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80 3x\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<h3 class=\"more-topic__item-text\"> <span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\"> David Rosenberg: The Russians aren&#8217;t coming, they&#8217;ve arrived \u2014 here&#8217;s what could happen next <\/span> <\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\">  <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"A school destroyed as a result of fighting, not far from the centre of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, located some 50 kilometres from Ukrainian-Russian border, on Feb. 28, 2022. \" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/no0228ukraine.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/no0228ukraine.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80,&#10;                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/no0228ukraine.jpg?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80 2x,&#10;                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/no0228ukraine.jpg?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80 3x\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<h3 class=\"more-topic__item-text\"> <span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\"> Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine, and the West&#8217;s response, signals the end of Canada&#8217;s hopes for the G20 <\/span> <\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"more-topic__item\" data-carousel-item=\"\">  <picture class=\"more-topic__item-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"China\u2019s President Xi Jinping, right, may find his alliance with Russia\u2019s President Vladimir Putin, left, tested. \" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/putin-xi-0228.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80\" height=\"96\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/putin-xi-0228.jpg?h=96&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80,&#10;                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/putin-xi-0228.jpg?h=192&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80 2x,&#10;                                    https:\/\/smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital\/financialpost\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/putin-xi-0228.jpg?h=288&amp;strip=all&amp;quality=80 3x\" width=\"96\"\/><\/picture>\n<h3 class=\"more-topic__item-text\"> <span class=\"more-topic__item-text-clamp\"> Why China won&#8217;t rupture ties with the West to help Russia when push comes to shove <\/span> <\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><button aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"more-topic__button-next\" data-carousel-next=\"\" tabindex=\"-1\" title=\"next\" type=\"button\"\/> <\/section>\n<p>But people pay Rosenberg for investment advice, not history lessons. What does he recommend?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDid I already say to buy gold, especially since cryptocurrencies proved of late that in troubled times, they are neither safe nor a haven?\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n<p>Gold was trading around US$1,900 per ounce, little changed from the end of last week, but up about six per cent from the end of January, according to Bloomberg data.<\/p>\n<p data-async=\"\"><em>\u2022 Email: kcarmichael@postmedia.com | Twitter: <a class=\"twitter-follow-button\" data-evt=\"click\" data-evt-typ=\"click\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\" link=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/carmichaelkevin\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">CarmichaelKevin<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article-content__share-group article-delimiter\" data-evt=\"beforeunload\" data-evt-typ=\"page_scroll\" data-evt-val=\"{\" control_fields=\"\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Share this article in your social network<\/h2>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"article-content__ad-group\">\n<div class=\"ad__section-border ad__section-border--category visually-hidden\">\n<section class=\"ad\">\n<h2 class=\"visually-hidden\">Advertisement<\/h2>\n<div class=\"ad__container\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner\" id=\"ad__inner-acceptable\">\n<div class=\"ad__inner__container\" data-ad=\"[[1200,250],[1200,90],[970,90],[970,250],[728,90],[300,250]]\" data-ad-acceptable=\"\" data-ad-loc=\"1\" data-ad-mobile=\"[[320,50],[300,50],[300,250]]\" id=\"ad-acceptable\" style=\"--desktopHeight:250px;--mobileHeight:250px\">\n<div class=\"ad__placeholder\">\n<p> This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"widget article-content__widget-group article-content__widget-group--slot1\">\n<section aria-labelledby=\"FinancialPostTopStories3179557866558086867942797527514975\" class=\"newsletter-widget fp-headlinenews\" data-account-id=\"b9d3df2fccd108b5eff3c44f573b2cd6\" data-newsletter=\"single\" data-newsletter-component=\"\" data-target-list=\"FP_HeadlineNews\" data-widget=\"newsletter\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Top Stories Newsletter logo\" class=\"newsletter-widget__logo newsletter-widget__logo--FP_HeadlineNews\" height=\"80\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/storage.googleapis.com\/pmd-stage-northamerica-northeast1-dcs-static-files\/9.5.1\/websites\/images\/newsletters\/logo\/newsletter-envelope.svg\" width=\"97\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"newsletter-widget__body\">\n<h2 class=\"newsletter-widget__title\" id=\"FinancialPostTopStories3179557866558086867942797527514975\">Financial Post Top Stories<\/h2>\n<p class=\"newsletter-widget__text\">Sign up to receive the daily top stories from the Financial Post, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.<\/p>\n<div class=\"js-replace-main\">  <small class=\"newsletter-widget__disclaimer text-size--micro\"> By clicking on the sign up button you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. 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Please try again <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<footer aria-label=\"Article Comments\" class=\"article-footer\">\n<section class=\"comments__section\" id=\"comments\">\n<h3 class=\"widget-title comments-anchor\" id=\"comments-area\">Comments<\/h3>\n<p class=\"comments__section-disclaimer\"> Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications\u2014you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings. <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/footer>\n<\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<br \/>Worst-case \u2014 &#8216;World War III and I am not being hyperbolic&#8217;: David Rosenberg<\/a><br \/>\n<br \/>2022-02-28 18:13:07<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breadcrumb Trail Links News FP Economy Kevin Carmichael: The future the economist paints is dark, but it&#8217;s within what now counts as the realm of possibility Publishing date: Feb 28,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19060,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19059"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19059\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media\/19060"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pantheregroup.com\/api\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}