Bernard Hellen expects to ship 271 boxes of figurines to model railroad enthusiasts around the world this month. His Toronto-based business , Miniprints, specializes in the handcrafted minutiae that model railroaders use to build scenes of life around their train sets, from cars and buildings to wildlife and people. You can even order a miniaturized version of yourself. Hellen exports to 36 countries, hitting all continents except one.
“I just have to figure out the logistics and find a model railroader in the Antarctic, and I’m fine,” he said. “Who knows? It’s good to have dreams, right?”
Despite the global reach, approximately 85 per cent of his shipments go south of the border. Or at least, they did, until the United States imposed 50 per cent Section 338 levies on Canadian goods after trade talks between Canada and the U.S. fell apart in late August. The tariffs covered specific Canadian goods including alcohol, dairy, textiles, furniture, paper goods, plastics, electronics and sporting goods, among others.
Hellen’s products had been exempt from Section 232 tariffs implemented last year because he was covered by the Canada-U.S. Mexico Agreement , and he had been shipping around 400 boxes a month to the U.S.. But in the Section 338 round, Miniprints was classified under HTS Code 9503, which include toys, dolls, puzzles and scale models.
More than 40 per cent of Hellen’s American customer base has vanished since the levies took effect.
He’s had no choice but to start charging the 50 per cent levy on U.S.-bound purchases and has included a message on his website informing customers about the change.
“I have been pleasantly surprised that I’ve been able to retain a significant portion of the U.S. customers. They do pay the tariffs, and I don’t know whether it’s because they perfected the art of consumerism, or because they want it at any cost, or because it is (an act of protest),” he said. “There is still some U.S. revenue coming across, but it’s not what it used to be.”
Hellen is one of many small business owners who are concerned that Canada’s trade war with the U.S. could have long-term, potentially permanent consequences, if it goes on too long. According to data from the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses (CFIB), more than 53,000 small and medium-sized businesses are directly impacted by the levies.
“If this thing lasts two days, I can survive it. If it lasts two months, then it’s an inconvenience. If it lasts two years, then it’s, to use an overused term, existential,” Hellen said.
Adding to his frustration is that he doesn’t qualify for the $7.5 billion in aid the federal government announced on Aug. 25.
Hellen — along with half of the small business community, according to the CFIB — doesn’t qualify for the federal programs because Miniprints makes less than $1 million a year, and his supply chain hasn’t been meaningfully impacted by the new levies. Provinces including Alberta, B.C., Manitoba and Ontario have their own tariff relief programs for affected businesses, but eligibility varies and small business owners have called for more direct support.
“(Small businesses) are being asked to go into the trenches and fight a trade war, but we have no uniforms, we have no guns, we have no bullets. We have nothing. I’m getting lost in the shuffle, and that’s the part that really hurts,” he said.
With talks between Canada and the U.S. at an apparent impasse, some economists are also warning that the longer Canada goes on without a trade deal, the worse the economy will fare.
Keith Willoughby, dean of the Edward School of Business at the University of Saskatchewan, said Canada could enter a recessionary environment if negotiators can’t reach a deal soon. The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and the world’s largest economy, and foreign companies want access to that market. It may be challenging to get those companies to operate in Canada if access is hampered.
The risk of more layoffs — especially in sectors most impacted by the tariffs — has also risen, he said. Canadian companies are trying to diversify trade in European and Asian markets, but those relationships and supply chains aren’t built instantaneously, Willoughby said. Companies will be forced to trim their operations if they aren’t able to diversify.
“We can’t have this (prolonged uncertainty) because it is breeding its own challenges that we’re facing economically as a nation that relies upon exports,” Willoughby said, suggesting it was time to return to the negotiating table.
Willoughby also disagreed with Canada’s counter-tariffs, which were implemented on Sept. 8, because they are a tax on Canadian consumers. Purchasing power will weaken because they will be forced to pay higher prices for goods.
“I’m not convinced that’s a solution that would help all parties involved. It’s like the phrase ‘an eye for an eye and a tooth for tooth.’ It leaves everybody blind and needing a trip to the dentist because nobody wins in that situation,” he said.
Tony Stillo, director of Canada economics at Oxford Economics, said he doesn’t think the Canadian economy will be plunged into recession, but he does believe economic growth will slow. He forecasts annualized GDP growth of 2.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2026 before slowing further to the one per cent range in the fourth quarter of 2026 and early 2027.
“This uncertain future is becoming a persistent feature of the economic landscape. We’re not looking for any kind of robust growth. It’s just going to be subdued growth,” he said.
“I think the Canadian government is doing what should have been done a long time ago (by diversifying trade). We’re never going to be untethered from the U.S., it’s just too big an economy…. But we’re trying to lessen that dependence.”
Stillo also noted that the economy could slow further if the U.S. implements more trade restrictions, such as the new steel and aluminum surtax that took effect on Sept. 8. However, he doesn’t expect that to happen because it will only affect a small portion of Canadian goods.
“The risks are certainly there. There could even be a resolution, but our baseline view about what is going to happen moving forward is that we will just leave the tariffs the way they are. We don’t add anymore, and we don’t take any away,” he added.
“That’s what we call the status quo, and we think that puts the economy on a lower path than it otherwise would be.”
Some small businesses are trying to make up for lost revenue by taking advantage of the Buy Canadian movement.
A new report by Abacus Data suggests that 78 per cent of 3,000 Canadian adults surveyed last February said they intend to boycott American products. That figure was virtually unchanged 19 months later, with 77 per cent of 1,479 Canadian adults surveyed saying the.
Hellen and 10 other colleagues recently created a new national coalition called the Canadian Model Railroad Manufacturers (CMRM) to promote its members on social media, industry events and cooperative marketing. The idea is to create a “voluntary marketing alliance” to create demand and visibility in Canada and to encourage Canadian hobbyists to spend money domestically. The CMRM website also features a directory of members where hobbyists can find shops closer to home, from British Columbia to Nova Scotia.
Hellen is also thinking of hosting events like open houses and shopping events to bring model railroad hobbyists together.
“I can cry about the loss of U.S. dollars. I can plan international expansion, but that’s not going to be overnight. But what I do have control over — especially in this moment where everyone wants to shop Canadian — is to make sure that we really are pushing hard in our home market, harder than we’ve ever pushed before, and the best way to do that by working together with like-minded businesses who are experiencing similar issues,” Hellen said.
Consumers are keen to wrap themselves in the flag, but it comes with a cost. Sixty-one per cent of those surveyed by Abacus Data in September said buying Canadian-made goods was more expensive.
Hellen said more politicians need to talk about how the tariffs are impacting small businesses, and he has been meeting with his local MP and MPP to discuss these issues.
“The big sectors will be fine,” he said. “We (smaller businesses) will not be OK because we don’t have visibility,”
Business investment also remains a key challenge in Canada, especially if the federal government wants to double non-U.S. exports by 2035, Stillo said.
A recent Oxford Economics report suggests that goal is feasible but would require strategic and timely infrastructure investment in things like pipelines, ports and transportation corridors that will allow Canada to export oil to non-U.S. markets, for example.
For now, however, Hellen and other small business owners find themselves with few options as they wait for a resolution.
“I’m hopeful that suddenly things will revert back to the good old days,” he said. “But at the end of the day, all I can really do about it is come up with strategies like CMRM that will potentially replace lost revenue from the reality that we live in.”
• Email: ptran@postmedia.com
'Getting lost in the shuffle': Why some small businesses fear they're being left to fight the trade war on their own
2026-10-09 15:13:59
