U.S. Stocks May See Initial Weakness Amid Ongoing Crude Oil Volatility

The major U.S. index futures are currently pointing to a sharply lower open on Thursday, with stocks likely to move back to the downside following the strength seen in the previous session.

Continued volatility in the oil markets is likely to weigh on Wall Street, as international benchmark Brent crude futures are surging by more than 5 percent after tumbling by more than 2 percent during Wednesday’s trading.

The rebound by the price of crude oil comes amid lingering uncertainty about the status of Middle East peace talks. Iran dismissed an American plan to pause the war, insisting that it will only occur on Tehran’s own terms and timeline.

In a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump described Iranian negotiators as “very different” and “strange” but claimed they are “begging” the U.S. to make a deal.

“They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty!” Trump warned.

Concerns about further widening of the conflict may also generate selling pressure after several Gulf countries issued a joint statement condemning Iran’s “criminal” attacks on their energy infrastructure.

“While we value our fraternal relations with the Republic of Iraq, we call on the Iraqi government to take the necessary measures to immediately halt the attacks … toward neighboring countries,” said the statement by the U.A.E., Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan.

The Gulf countries reaffirmed their right to self-defense as well as their right to “take all necessary measures to safeguard our sovereignty, security, and stability.”

After ending Tuesday’s choppy session mostly lower, stocks showed a strong move back to the upside in early trading on Wednesday. The major averages gave back ground over the course of the trading day but managed to remain in positive territory.

The Nasdaq advanced 167.93 points or 0.8 percent to 21,929.83, the Dow climbed 305.43 points or 0.7 percent to 46,429.49 and the S&P 500 rose 35.53 points or 0.5 percent to 6,591.90.

The early strength on Wall Street came amid a sharp pullback by the price of crude oil, with international benchmark Brent crude futures slumping by 1.7 percent after surging in the previous session.

Crude oil prices gave back ground after a report from the New York Times said the U.S. has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East.

Citing two officials briefed on the diplomacy, the New York Times said the plan, delivered by way of Pakistan, said it addresses Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

The New York Times acknowledged it is unclear whether Iran was likely to accept the plan as a basis for negotiations but argued the delivery of the plan showed the administration is ramping up efforts to conclude the war.

As diplomatic efforts gather pace, Iran has told the United Nations Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the Strait of Hormuz with Tehran’s consent.

However, buying interest was partly offset by a report from Iran’s state-linked media Fars News Agency claiming Iran will not accept the ceasefire offer from the U.S.

“Iran does not accept the ceasefire,” an informed source told FARS, according to a translation of the news site’s Telegram page. “Basically, it is not logical to enter into such a process with the violators of the agreement.”

In U.S. economic news, the Labor Department released a report showing U.S. import prices increased by much more than expected in the month of February.

The Labor Department said import prices jumped by 1.3 percent in February after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.6 percent in January.

Economists had expected import prices to rise by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.2 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

The report said export prices also surged by 1.5 percent in February following an unrevised 0.6 percent increase in January. Export prices were expected to grow by 0.5 percent.

Biotechnology stocks showed a substantial move to the upside on the day, driving the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index up by 3.5 percent

A sharp increase by the price of gold also contributed to significant strength among gold stocks, with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index surging by 3 percent.

Airline, computer hardware and pharmaceutical stocks also saw considerable strength, moving higher along with most of the other major sectors.

Commodity, Currency Markets

Crude oil futures are surging $3.80 to $94.12 a barrel after tumbling $2.03 to $90.32 barrel on Wednesday. Meanwhile, after jumping $150.30 to $4,552.30 an ounce in the previous session, gold futures are slumping $112.70 to $4,439.60 an ounce.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar is trading at 159.62 yen versus the 159.46 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Wednesday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1532 compared to yesterday’s $1.1558.

Asia

Asian stocks gave up early gains to end mostly lower on Thursday after two consecutive days of gains on hopes for a de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Uncertainty lingered on the status of Middle East peace talks as Iran dismissed an American plan to pause the war, insisting that it will only occur on Tehran’s own terms and timeline.

As the war drags on, governments across Asia have shifted into emergency footing. South Korea has set up an emergency economic task force to urgently prepare for adverse scenarios.

Japan said it is reviewing its supply chain for petroleum-related products. The Philippines has declared a national emergency, citing an “imminent danger of a critically low energy supply.”

Gold fell over 1 percent to $4,457 an ounce in Asian trading, as the dollar remained near recent highs on inflation fears and hawkish Fed bets.

Oil prices jumped more than 2 percent after reports that the U.S. military is deploying thousands of Marines and several more battleships to the Middle East.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index slumped 1.1 percent to 3,889.08 after China Life Insurance delivered mixed financials results. Shares of the company plunged 4.4 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index tumbled 1.9 percent to 24,856.43 amid skepticism over U.S. President Trump’s efforts to bring an end to the war with Iran.

Japanese markets reversed course to end modestly lower due to lingering inflation and interest-rate concerns. The Nikkei 225 Index dipped 0.3 percent to 53,603.65, while the broader Topix Index settled 0.2 percent lower at 3,642.80.

The yen lingered near its lowest level this year as inflation fears and hawkish Fed bets underpinned the dollar.

Seoul stocks tumbled, dragged down by semiconductor-related stocks after Google unveiled a technology called TurboQuant that can speed up artificial intelligence models and lower their memory requirements.

The Kospi Index dove 3.2 percent to 5,460.46 while Samsung Electronics lost 4.7 percent and peer SK Hynix shed 6.2 percent on concerns over weaker demand.

Australian markets fluctuated before finishing marginally lower after the Reserve Bank warned that a global supply shock from a prolonged Middle East war could lift inflation and long-term expectations.

Australia’s consumer inflation eased marginally in February 2026, but analysts said headline inflation could approach 5 percent next month due to rising energy costs.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index edged down 0.1 percent to 8,525.70 after two sessions of gains. The broader All Ordinaries Index closed 0.2 percent lower at 8,726.50.

Across the Tasman, New Zealand’s benchmark S&P/NZX-50 Index edged up by 0.4 percent to 12,976.99, extending gains from the previous session.

Europe

European stocks have declined on Thursday as uncertainty lingers on the status of Middle East peace talks. Iran dismissed an American plan to pause the war, insisting that it will only occur on Tehran’s own terms and timeline.

Investors were also reacting to hawkish comments by European Central Bank (ECB) member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.

Nagel said that the European Central Bank may hike interest rates at its next meeting in April “if the war in the Middle East raises the spectre of an inflation surge in the Eurozone.”

ECB President Christine Lagarde said Wednesday that anything more than a short-lived spike in inflation could warrant an increase in interest rates.

In economic news, a survey showed that German consumer sentiment is set to deteriorate in April due to economic concerns over the war in Iran.

The forward-looking consumer sentiment index fell to -28.0 in April from -24.8 in the previous month, according to survey results published jointly by NIQ/GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions. The score was forecast to fall moderately to -27.3.

Although no significant effects were visible in terms of the willingness to buy or save in March, income expectations dampened notably because of inflation fears.

The German DAX Index is down by 1.4 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index is down by 1.2 percent and the French CAC 40 Index is down by 0.9 percent.

Banks traded lower, with Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas and Barclays falling 1-2 percent.

Henkel shares edged up slightly. Hair care brand Olaplex Holdings said it entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by the German consumer goods maker.

Food delivery giant Delivery Hero fell 1.1 percent after issuing a cautious outlook.

French firm Vinci was moving lower after it agreed to buy a toll highway portfolio in India from Macquarie Asia Infrastructure Fund 2.

Swedish fashion retailer H & M Hennes & Mauritz slumped 5.6 percent after Q1 sales fell short of expectations.

Energy giant BP Plc rose 1.2 percent and peer Shell added 0.8 percent as crude oil prices rose about 2 percent, clawing back losses from the previous session on concerns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East will further disrupt supplies.

U.K. retail bellwether Next Plc surged 6 percent after lifting its profit guidance for 2026.

U.S. Economic News

A report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed a modest increase in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended March 21st.

The Labor Department said initial jobless claims rose to 210,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 205,000. The uptick came in line with economist estimates.

Jobless claims bounced back slightly after hitting their lowest level in almost two months in the previous week.

Meanwhile, the report said the less volatile four-week moving average edged down to 210,500, a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 210,750.

At 1 pm ET, the Treasury Department is scheduled to announce the results of this month’s auction of $44 billion worth of seven-year notes.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is due to speak on “Reflections on Financial Stability” before an event co-presented by the Yale Program on Financial Stability at 4 pm ET.

At 6:30 pm ET, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is scheduled to speak on “The Fed’s Balance Sheet” before the Economic Club of Miami.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson is due to speak on the economic outlook and energy effects at the Global Perspectives Speaker Series at 7 pm ET.

At 7:10 pm ET, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr is scheduled to speak on the economy before an event hosted by the Brookings Institution.