It’s been a tough year for Canada’s
housing market
and judging by last month’s numbers, recovery is still a ways off.
The fall market was basically “a non-event” as homebuyers played a waiting game with the growing ranks of sellers,
said Robert Hogue
, assistant chief economist for
Royal Bank of Canada
.
Home sales have flatlined since July, dipping 0.6 per cent in November from the month before, almost erasing the small gain in October, he said.
“Whether buyers’ measured approach is tactical or out of caution amid economic uncertainty, the implication is the same: Strong-arming sellers into reducing prices in many markets,” said Hogue.
The composite MLS Home Price Index has slipped 0.7 per cent in the past four months and is now down 3.7 per cent from a year ago.
According to online realtor Zoocasa
, only a third of Canada’s major markets have seen a price increase since January.
Quebec City has had an astonishing run this year, with prices rising more than 11 per cent to $432,400, followed by Montreal, the second highest gainer. Prices rose moderately in Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Regina.
Most markets, however, did not fare so well with benchmark prices falling in 10 of the 16 Canadian regions Zoocasa included in its study.
Ontario led the price drops this year. The benchmark price in the Greater Toronto Area fell $132,500 to $956,800 between January and October, a more than 12 per cent drop.
Hamilton/Burlington and Kitchener-Waterloo weren’t far behind, with prices falling 10 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively. Prices in London/St. Thomas fell almost 10 per cent, down $61,800 to $561,400.
Ottawa’s 6.3 per cent decline in home prices beat the Greater Vancouver Area, where prices shed 5.2 per cent.
Canada’s housing market stalled even as the
Bank of Canada
was cutting interest rates, and there is a theory that buyers were holding out for even cheaper rates.
“With the central bank signalling it’s done this cycle, it could be the hint some buyers were waiting for to make a move,” said Hogue.
RBC expects lower
interest rates
and price drops in certain markets to bring more buyers back in the new year.
“Still, the road ahead is poised to be bumpy with affordability challenges persisting in several major markets, and sharply lower immigration creating headwinds,” said Hogue.
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Canada’s
population dropped
in the third quarter, the first quarterly decline on record outside of the pandemic.
The population fell by 0.2 per cent to 41.6 million, a dramatic shift from the immigration boom in 2023 and 2024. The decline was led by a record drop in non-permanent residents, as Prime Minister Mark Carney continued Justin Trudeau’s policy to cut the number of foreign students, temporary workers and asylum-seekers.
“A major population adjustment is well underway, and it remains one of the biggest economic stories in Canada,” said Robert Kavcic, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, in a note.
The impacts BMO is watching include a weaker rental market, a tighter job market for youth and a pickup in productivity and real GDP per capita.
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McLister on mortgages
Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s
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can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his
mortgage rate page
for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.
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Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.
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Posthaste: Here's where home prices plunged the most in tough year for Canada's housing market
2025-12-18 12:59:01
